Showing posts with label AFL premiership. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AFL premiership. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

AFL grand final too early to predict

It is worth prefacing this media release from Sportingbet by saying that it is incredibly rare to see the best two teams after round 8 both reach the grand final.

AFL: $4.00 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

Geelong are $1.70 favourites to cement their place as Flag favourites against Collingwood on Friday night and punters can also back this week’s clash to be a Grand Final preview.

Sportingbet Australia is offering $4.00 that Geelong and Collingwood will go on to play in the Grand Final after the Pies shortened up to outright second favourites for the Flag behind Geelong.

“They are the two form sides in the competition and while Geelong deserve to be favourites for the Flag and Friday night’s clash, the Pies look genuine threats for both,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.

“We are expecting this to be the biggest betting game of the regular season much the same way Geelong vs St Kilda was in round 14 last year before they ultimately played in the Grand Final.

“We are betting $4.00 for a Geelong/Collingwood Grand Final and I expect punters will certainly come for that ahead of the $1.24 for any other side to break their dominance and make the Final.”

Sullivan said he is keen to take the Pies on despite their form over the last month.

“Collingwood have been impressive but Geelong were awesome against Brisbane and I have no doubt they deserve to be a clear favourite,” he said.

“The Pies are $2.15 with us and I will be looking to lay them until they can prove they are up to the benchmark Geelong has set.”

Collingwood vs Geelong
Sportingbet Australia market
Geelong 1.70
Collingwood 2.15

Collingwood vs Geelong Grand Final?
Sportingbet Australia market
Yes - Collingwood Play Geelong In 2010 Grand Final 4.00
No - Any Other Combination Of Teams 1.24

2010 AFL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
Geelong 3.50
Collingwood 3.75
Western Bulldogs 5.00
St Kilda 8.00
Carlton 13.00
Fremantle 18.00
Sydney 21.00
Brisbane 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Hawthorn 51.00
Essendon 67.00
North Melbourne 126.00
West Coast 201.00
Melbourne 201.00
Adelaide 501.00

Monday, April 19, 2010

Richmond already wins wooden spoon

Good news if you're a punter - tragic if you're a Tigers fan.

BOOKIE PAYS OUT ON RICHMOND FOR THE SPOON AFTER ONLY FOUR ROUNDS!

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has paid out on Richmond to collect the wooden spoon after only four rounds.

With 18 rounds to go in the 2010 AFL Premiership Season, the bookie has paid out more than $100,000 to punters who backed Richmond to finish on the bottom of the ladder.

“Unfortunately for Richmond fans we think we’ll be paying out on the Tigers at the end of the season, so our punters may as well collect their cash now,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“There are 18 rounds to go so it’s a definite gamble.”

Richmond, who were paying as much as $5 in early Wooden Spoon markets, are now $1.25 favourites to take home the dreaded prize.

The payout applies to all bets placed before 12noon Monday 19th April.

Sportsbet.com.au is also offering odds of $5 on Richmond not winning a game this season, although one big punter has faith and has placed $10,000 at $1.16 on the Tigers winning at least one match this season.

Sportsbet.com.au is generating a reputation for paying out early on big sporting competitions. In November last year, the bookie paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the Australian Masters after two rounds when he was three strokes ahead. Woods faltered in the third round to share the lead with two others, before he shot clear on the final day to win the tournament.

Updated Wooden Spoon Market
$1.25 Richmond
$7 North Melbourne
$12 Adelaide
$17 Melbourne
$17 West Coast
$26 Essendon
$41 Port Adelaide

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

More markets on Richmond's woes

Sportingbet was offering $8. Either the market has tumbled in a couple of hours, or Sportsbet is a little ahead of its time with the $5 line for Richmond to remain winless.

Either way, here's their statement:

RICHMOND $5 TO GO WINLESS IN 2010

Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au says Richmond is a $5 chance to go winless throughout the 2010 AFL Premiership Season.

“Given their current form it’s hard to see where the Tigers are going to find an easy kill this year,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“We’re offering odds of $5 to punters who think Richmond will not win a match in 2010.”

With at least four omissions from the side that lost to Sydney by 55 points, Richmond has had little support ahead of their Round 4 fixture against Melbourne.

“We cannot lay a bet on the Tigers to beat the Demons this week, which they would normally pencil in as a possible victory,” said Lane.

“They’ve drifted from $2.55 out to $3.35 to defeat the Dees, while Melbourne has firmed from $1.52 into $1.33.”

Richmond has also firmed as the outright favourite in betting for the dreaded Wooden Spoon.

“The Tigers were $5 in pre-season betting for the wooden spoon, now they’re the hot favourite at $1.45,” said Lane.

“We have taken bets of $5000 at $3.75, $3000 at $3.50 and $10,000 at $3.25 on the Tigers for the spoon.”

Richmond to remain winless for AFL season

On form, the $8 might be well worth an investment. However, remember Melbourne last year, and their late-season surge of form to win two games.

TOOTHLESS TIGERS BACKED TO REMAIN WINLESS IN 2010

Richmond’s terrible side to the season has led Sportingbet Australia to open a market on when the Tigers will win their first game in 2010, if in fact they do win one.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the majority of early money had been for the Tiger’s to go through the season without recording a win.

“There have been no huge bets yet but punters are certainly keen to take the $8.00 about a winless season at Tigerland,” Sullivan said.

“They have really struggled to compete in any of their games and it is a little hard to see where a win is coming from.”

Sullivan said the favourite in the market was this weekend’s clash against fellow strugglers Melbourne at $3.10.

“Melbourne have been much improved over the past fortnight with the heartbreaker to Collingwood and the win over Adelaide, so Richmond will certainly need to lift if they are to break their duck,” he said.

“The danger for the Demons might be coming down from the high of that win and backing up for consecutive victories is not something they have a good record of in recent times.

“But punters have already backed the Dees in from $1.50 to $1.33 after Richmond suspended four players after their Sydney hotel shenanigans.”

RICHMOND’S FIRST WIN OF 2010
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rnd 4 vs Melbourne 3.10
Rnd 5 vs Fremantle 4.00
Rnd 7 v Adelaide 7.00
Richmond Remain Winless For 2010 Season 8.00
Rnd 9 vs Essendon 11.00
Rnd 8 vs Hawthorn 13.00
Rnd 6 vs Geelong 18.00
Rnd 10 vs Port Adelaide 18.00
Rnd 15 vs Fremantle 19.00
Rnd 12 vs West Coast 23.00
Rnd 19 vs Melbourne 26.00
Rnd 16 vs North Melbourne 31.00
Rnd 14 vs Sydney 41.00
Rnd 11 vs St Kilda 51.00
Rnd 13 vs Brisbane 61.00
Rnd 18 vs Adelaide 101.00
Rnd 17 vs Collingwood 126.00
Rnd 22 vs Port Adelaide 151.00
Rnd 20 vs Carlton 201.00
Rnd 21 vs St Kilda 501.00

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Brownlow medal update

Given that Jonathan Brown is off to a flyer, guaranteed at least 5 points from his first two games, $8 are not bad odds.

The other one who seems to be good value this year is Nick Reiwoldt, at $17. Active forwards showed last year that they can poll well, and they're pretty much dominating the league at the moment in terms of their impact on results.

Looking through the list, it is an interesting exercise to look for some early vote winners in the search for value. My few would be Matthew Boyd at $29, Aaron Sandilands at $51, and Ryan O'Keefe at $101. O'Keefe is likely to have polled in both his opening games and will play a key role for the Swans as they perform above expectations.

Sportingbet Australia odds:
Gary Ablett [GEEL] 6.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 8.00
Chris Judd [CARL] 13.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 15.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 15.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 17.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 17.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 19.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 23.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 23.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 29.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 29.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 29.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 31.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 34.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 34.00
Kane Cornes [PORT] 41.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 41.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 41.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 51.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 51.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 67.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 67.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 81.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brock Mclean [CARL] 101.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 101.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 101.00
Luke Ball [COLL] 101.00
Luke Power [BRIS] 101.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Michael Barlow [FREM] 101.00

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

AFL premiership market update

Below is the latest AFL premiership market. On current and potential form, Hawthorn for mine is over the odds. The other two which seem to be over the odds on current form are Sydney and Fremantle, both outside $30.

Adelaide is the big drifter, and if they are beaten by Melbourne this weekend, expect that to plummet even further.

St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.25
Western Bulldogs 5.00
Collingwood 7.50
Hawthorn 9.00
Brisbane 12.00
Adelaide 19.00
Carlton 31.00
Sydney 31.00
Fremantle 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Essendon 81.00
West Coast 126.00
North Melbourne 251.00
Melbourne 301.00
Richmond 401.00

Monday, March 29, 2010

Collingwood premiership chances

Collingwood fans have reason to be excited after the weekend's clash against premiership favourites, the Western Bulldogs.

In one market, they were slashed from $10 to $7, and in another from $9.50 to $6.50.

The Pies' outfit was slick without doing too much out of the ordinary. Harry O'Brien and Heath Shaw at the back were outstanding and Leigh Brown put in a better than average performance.

But the thing which should make the competition stand up and take notice is the depth. Sharod Wellingham was near the side's best midfielder, Darren Jolly had a shocker and the likes of Lockyer, Swan, Didak, Davis, Johnson, Fraser, and others had good days at the office, without being outstanding.

Notably, the Pies didn't have a spearhead up forward. The Dogs were last year unpredictable and far from one-dimensional, which is a good lesson to all sides looking to constantly pick up one player. In short, Collingwood beat the Bulldogs at their own game.

Maybe if the Dogs revert to their old style of play and look for Hall as a decoy to eliminate two players from the forward line contest, they'll be a stronger outfit. Their midfield wasn't bad, but they were certainly out-drilled.