We were in danger of going backwards last night after Central Coast imploded in the soccer, but Brett Lee came to our rescue in the Champions League cricket.
NSW brought us home a $3.10 return on our speculator.
So if you have any late mail on the track this afternoon, be sure to let me and readers of the Aussiepunt blog know.
I still like Speed Gifted in the Cox Plate, but there's virtually no talk of it going into the race. Perhaps people feel it's better suited to the Melbourne Cup distance.
A tip for anybody who might be interested: Sportsbet has a fairly good promotion, allowing its members to tip on each race on the Melbourne card. It's free to enter and there's a $70,000-odd worth of prizes at the end of it.
I figure I've got nothing to lose by giving it a bash!
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
Smith's chip promo ... now that's creative!
Now this is creative.
Smith's goes out to find a new chip flavour and throws it out to the people.
People argue about which of four finalist chip flavours are best - the coat of arms flavour; late night kebab; popcorn; or caesar salad.
Sportingbet Australia saw an opportunity, and has consequently opened a book on which one will win.
They've got the late night kebab and coat of arms fighting for favouritism, and why not: They're basically a variation on barbecue flavour. If popcorn wins, you'll get $4 in the running, and $4.50 if you like salad in a chip.
“This competition has created great debate around the country and punters have been keen to match their tastebuds with their wallets,” CEO Michael Sullivan said.
“We’ve had plenty of phone calls from punters wanting to back their personal favourites.”
Smith's goes out to find a new chip flavour and throws it out to the people.
People argue about which of four finalist chip flavours are best - the coat of arms flavour; late night kebab; popcorn; or caesar salad.
Sportingbet Australia saw an opportunity, and has consequently opened a book on which one will win.
They've got the late night kebab and coat of arms fighting for favouritism, and why not: They're basically a variation on barbecue flavour. If popcorn wins, you'll get $4 in the running, and $4.50 if you like salad in a chip.
“This competition has created great debate around the country and punters have been keen to match their tastebuds with their wallets,” CEO Michael Sullivan said.
“We’ve had plenty of phone calls from punters wanting to back their personal favourites.”
Central Coast worth looking at in soccer
Central Coast Mariners are worth looking at in tonight's game versus the Newcastle Jets.
Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.
Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.
Central Coast is still paying $2.60.
And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.
In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.
Although they drew last time they met, the Central Coast have won five straight, compared to Newcastle's dismal effort of only one from its last five outings.
Jets defender Ljubo Milicevic is missing from their lineup.
Central Coast is still paying $2.60.
And remember, we're still riding New South Wales to win the Champions League final.
In the meantime, we'll look for some late mail for tomorrow's race card.
AAMI Vase latest market
The Cox Plate is not the only race of significance tomorrow:
Sportingbet Australia punters have backed Moonee Valley specialist Carrara in from $5 to $4 for tomorrow’s AAMI Vase.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said history was on the Tony Vasil trained gallopers side.
“Nine of the last twelve winners of this race have come through the Caulfield Guineas and there’s plenty of smart money for Carrara,” said Sullivan.
“While he has to be a slight doubt at the trip he could just get a soft lead and has definitely shown a liking for the track.”
Extra Zero is an easing $3.50 favourite for the AAMI Vase.
AAMI Vase
Sportingbet Australia Market
Extra Zero $3.50
Carrara $4.40
Viking Legend $4.80
Miss With Attitude $6.50
Spacecraft $7.50
Hanks $8.50
Morossa $26
Rivers Lane $31
Sportingbet Australia punters have backed Moonee Valley specialist Carrara in from $5 to $4 for tomorrow’s AAMI Vase.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said history was on the Tony Vasil trained gallopers side.
“Nine of the last twelve winners of this race have come through the Caulfield Guineas and there’s plenty of smart money for Carrara,” said Sullivan.
“While he has to be a slight doubt at the trip he could just get a soft lead and has definitely shown a liking for the track.”
Extra Zero is an easing $3.50 favourite for the AAMI Vase.
AAMI Vase
Sportingbet Australia Market
Extra Zero $3.50
Carrara $4.40
Viking Legend $4.80
Miss With Attitude $6.50
Spacecraft $7.50
Hanks $8.50
Morossa $26
Rivers Lane $31
Whobe drifting by the minute
Here's the latest releast from Sportingbet Australia, which indicates there will be some good odds floating around, no matter which horse you fancy in the Cox Plate:
Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou continues to drift in betting markets as punters swarm to back Heart of Dreams and last year’s runner up Zipping.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were betting all around the favourite who has blown from $2.50 to $3.20 following the barrier draw on Tuesday.
“Whobegotyou has been unlayable since the barrier draw as a host of other runners have been crunched in the market,” Sullivan said.
“Punters have launched at Heart of Dreams who has shortened from $8.50 on Sunday to his current price of $5.50 and there has been plenty of smart money put on him.
“Zipping has also been backed from $21 to $15 as punters look for quality weight for age performers.”
Sullivan said he expected the tide to turn at some point and punters would step into Whobegotyou tomorrow.
“He is still the best horse in the race for mine and he is four from four at the Valley so there is little doubt there will be money for him tomorrow,” Sullivan said.
“He is still our worst result as punters have been backing him for months and I think they will step in again tomorrow to make him a complete strip out if he salutes.”
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Heart Of Dreams 5.50
Speed Gifted 11.00
So You Think 11.00
Scenic Shot 14.00
El Segundo 15.00
Zipping 15.00
Vision And Power 16.00
Rock Kingdom 17.00
Black Piranha 18.00
Manhattan Rain 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Nom De Jeu 71.00
Sir Slick 151.00
Cox Plate favourite Whobegotyou continues to drift in betting markets as punters swarm to back Heart of Dreams and last year’s runner up Zipping.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were betting all around the favourite who has blown from $2.50 to $3.20 following the barrier draw on Tuesday.
“Whobegotyou has been unlayable since the barrier draw as a host of other runners have been crunched in the market,” Sullivan said.
“Punters have launched at Heart of Dreams who has shortened from $8.50 on Sunday to his current price of $5.50 and there has been plenty of smart money put on him.
“Zipping has also been backed from $21 to $15 as punters look for quality weight for age performers.”
Sullivan said he expected the tide to turn at some point and punters would step into Whobegotyou tomorrow.
“He is still the best horse in the race for mine and he is four from four at the Valley so there is little doubt there will be money for him tomorrow,” Sullivan said.
“He is still our worst result as punters have been backing him for months and I think they will step in again tomorrow to make him a complete strip out if he salutes.”
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Heart Of Dreams 5.50
Speed Gifted 11.00
So You Think 11.00
Scenic Shot 14.00
El Segundo 15.00
Zipping 15.00
Vision And Power 16.00
Rock Kingdom 17.00
Black Piranha 18.00
Manhattan Rain 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Nom De Jeu 71.00
Sir Slick 151.00
Cox Plate markets start to take shape
And here they come ... the betting movements on the Cox plate have started. Here's the first statement of the day, from IASbet.
Melbourne, 23 October 2009 - As racing's focus turns to Moonee Valley and the Cox Plate IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read says you shouldn't overlook the obvious when it comes to assessing the race.
Whobegotyou ($3) has run at the track four times for four wins, he won the Yalumba Stakes last start and is a deserving favourite.
Read suggests sticking to the local hopes with Heart Of Dreams ($5.50), Zipping ($15), and El Segundo ($15) all creating interest.
El Segundo has won the race before, Zipping was second last year and Heart Of Dreams has been running great races in all the key lead ups."
Bart Cummings three year old So You Think ($15 into $11) has been one of the better backed runners and as we learnt last week, ignore Bart at your peril!
The Schweppes Stakes (1200m) should be a fantastic race according to Read.
"This is a Group One field in a Group Two race," Read said. "Lucky Secret ($3.30) and Apache Cat ($3.60) must be respected with fantastic Moonee Valley records, but Light Fantastic ($13) and Danleigh ($9) represent the value. Danleigh won the Manikato Stakes over the same Distance at the Valley a month ago and should again be prominent. "
Melbourne, 23 October 2009 - As racing's focus turns to Moonee Valley and the Cox Plate IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read says you shouldn't overlook the obvious when it comes to assessing the race.
Whobegotyou ($3) has run at the track four times for four wins, he won the Yalumba Stakes last start and is a deserving favourite.
Read suggests sticking to the local hopes with Heart Of Dreams ($5.50), Zipping ($15), and El Segundo ($15) all creating interest.
El Segundo has won the race before, Zipping was second last year and Heart Of Dreams has been running great races in all the key lead ups."
Bart Cummings three year old So You Think ($15 into $11) has been one of the better backed runners and as we learnt last week, ignore Bart at your peril!
The Schweppes Stakes (1200m) should be a fantastic race according to Read.
"This is a Group One field in a Group Two race," Read said. "Lucky Secret ($3.30) and Apache Cat ($3.60) must be respected with fantastic Moonee Valley records, but Light Fantastic ($13) and Danleigh ($9) represent the value. Danleigh won the Manikato Stakes over the same Distance at the Valley a month ago and should again be prominent. "
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Random integrity comment
This has nothing to do with this blog's usual content stream, but I note there are moves to tighten laws on streaming of information.
It's about time we got rid of people posting incredulous reviews about products they have never seen, let alone tested or used. You won't see any of that rubbish here.
For the sake of full disclosure, here's how this blog works: If you click on a Google ad, I get a few cents. Last time I looked, there was about $6 in the account.
If you open an account after clicking on the affiliate ads at the side of the page, I get a commission. I'm not sure how much because it hasn't happened yet, and frankly, I'm not worried if it ever happens.
The bottom line: This site is for fun. I do it because I enjoy it. This is an open invitation to join in the banter, offer fellow punters a piece of advice, a tip, an observation, friendly fire, whatever takes your fancy.
And my only advice for now: Bet only what you can afford. If it's not enjoyable, don't do it.
It's about time we got rid of people posting incredulous reviews about products they have never seen, let alone tested or used. You won't see any of that rubbish here.
For the sake of full disclosure, here's how this blog works: If you click on a Google ad, I get a few cents. Last time I looked, there was about $6 in the account.
If you open an account after clicking on the affiliate ads at the side of the page, I get a commission. I'm not sure how much because it hasn't happened yet, and frankly, I'm not worried if it ever happens.
The bottom line: This site is for fun. I do it because I enjoy it. This is an open invitation to join in the banter, offer fellow punters a piece of advice, a tip, an observation, friendly fire, whatever takes your fancy.
And my only advice for now: Bet only what you can afford. If it's not enjoyable, don't do it.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Cox Plate odds
In terms of Australian sport, it's all about racing over the next couple of weeks, at least until the end of the Spring Carnival. And the next big race on the calendar is the Cox Plate.
There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.
Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:
Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.
“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.
“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13
There will be plenty of news coming through from bookies, some which will need to be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, we'll try to keep abreast of which horses the punters like. Early in the market, it seems to be Heart of Dreams which has come in to $6.
Here's the latest release from Sportingbet Australia which came through a few minutes ago:
Heart of Dreams has been the big shortener for the Cox Plate with punters rushing to back the second favourite following the barrier draw.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Mick Price trained gelding shortened from $8.50 to $7.00 after taking barrier three but punters still stepped into the Underwood winner.
“He has clearly been the best backed runner since the barrier draw and is now into $6 after a rush of big bets came for him at $7,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegtyou is still the clear favourite and still clearly our worst way but punters are certainly warming to Heart of Dreams.
“He beat Whobegotyou in the Underwood and was only narrowly beaten in the Yalumba and with a much better draw, there is no reason he can’t come out on
top again.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou had been left alone by punters since drawing 10 of 14.
“He has drifted from $2.50 to $2.80 since the draw but I still think punters will step into him on the day and he will definitely be our worst result,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
1. El Segundo $15
2. Zipping $17
3. Vision And Power $17
4. Nom Du Jeu $51
5. Scenic Shot $15
6. Black Piranha $16
7. Sir Slick $151
8. Road To Rock $31
9. Speed Gifted $9
10. Whobegotyou $2.80
11. Heart Of Dreams $6.00
12. Rock Kingdom $17
13. Manhattan Rain $17
14. So You Think $13
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
NSW good bet to win champions league
Any Twenty20 bet in cricket is fraught with danger, but we think New South Wales has both the form and the side which can beat anybody on an even playing field.
The bowling attack is by far supreme to any other. Lee, Clark, Bollinger and Hauritz could well be Australia's bowling lineup, as could Warner, Hughes and Katich at the top order. Neither can we underestimate the all-round ability of Moises Henriques.
Victoria is a threat. Cameron White, Brad Hodge and David Hussey can tear an attack apart, and they have Siddle and Harwood who can keep opposition lineups quiet, despite Harwood going for 38 off his three overs against Cape Cobras last time they met.
Cape Cobras are similarly dangerous, in that Herschell Gibbs, JP Duminy and Puttick can move the scoring along early. Zondeki has been bowling okay, but it's hard to see them bowling too many sides out cheaply. It's their batting which can cause real problems.
Trinidad and Tobago has been the real surprise packet, and like any decent Twenty20 side, can get a move on if things go right.
Given the inconsistency of the competition, and the somewhat random nature of this form of cricket, we'll be having no more than a speculator (ie, 5% of our bankroll). But all things fair and even, we should be on a winner with New South Wales, and I'm tipping it will be against the Cape Cobras.
Latest odds are as follows:
New South Wales $3.10
Victoria $3.50
Trinidad & Tobago $3.60
Cape Cobras $4.25
The bowling attack is by far supreme to any other. Lee, Clark, Bollinger and Hauritz could well be Australia's bowling lineup, as could Warner, Hughes and Katich at the top order. Neither can we underestimate the all-round ability of Moises Henriques.
Victoria is a threat. Cameron White, Brad Hodge and David Hussey can tear an attack apart, and they have Siddle and Harwood who can keep opposition lineups quiet, despite Harwood going for 38 off his three overs against Cape Cobras last time they met.
Cape Cobras are similarly dangerous, in that Herschell Gibbs, JP Duminy and Puttick can move the scoring along early. Zondeki has been bowling okay, but it's hard to see them bowling too many sides out cheaply. It's their batting which can cause real problems.
Trinidad and Tobago has been the real surprise packet, and like any decent Twenty20 side, can get a move on if things go right.
Given the inconsistency of the competition, and the somewhat random nature of this form of cricket, we'll be having no more than a speculator (ie, 5% of our bankroll). But all things fair and even, we should be on a winner with New South Wales, and I'm tipping it will be against the Cape Cobras.
Latest odds are as follows:
New South Wales $3.10
Victoria $3.50
Trinidad & Tobago $3.60
Cape Cobras $4.25
Monday, October 19, 2009
Latest Cox Plate movements
At Aussiepunt, we'll be following racing market fluctuations over the coming week. But following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia which give a good indication of how people see this weekend's Cox Plate in its early phases of development:
Lloyd Williams’ horse Zipping has been heavily backed to go one better than last year and win the Cox Plate shortening from $21 to $16 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Zipping had been the best backed runner alongside favourite Whobegotyou in the last 24 hours.
“Zipping’s run in the Cox Plate was enormous last year and with him being the only survivor from the placegetters from last year, punters have stepped in,” Sullivan said.
“We took bets of $60,000 to $3000, $20,000 to $1000 and a number of other good sized bets as the price trimmed up to $16.
“He has shown enough this time in to suggest he will run a big race and the stable knows how to get them ready for the big races.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou remained Sportingbet’s worst result and there was still strong money for the favourite at $2.50 this week.
“Whobegotyou has been our worst result for a long time and punters have kept coming for him,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
Whobegotyou 2.50
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Speed Gifted 8.00
El Segundo 10.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Black Piranha 16.00
So You Think 17.00
Rock Kingdom 21.00
Efficient 26.00
Viewed 31.00
Vigor 31.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Roman Emperor 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 61.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Jolies Shinju 101.00
Lloyd Williams’ horse Zipping has been heavily backed to go one better than last year and win the Cox Plate shortening from $21 to $16 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Zipping had been the best backed runner alongside favourite Whobegotyou in the last 24 hours.
“Zipping’s run in the Cox Plate was enormous last year and with him being the only survivor from the placegetters from last year, punters have stepped in,” Sullivan said.
“We took bets of $60,000 to $3000, $20,000 to $1000 and a number of other good sized bets as the price trimmed up to $16.
“He has shown enough this time in to suggest he will run a big race and the stable knows how to get them ready for the big races.”
Sullivan said Whobegotyou remained Sportingbet’s worst result and there was still strong money for the favourite at $2.50 this week.
“Whobegotyou has been our worst result for a long time and punters have kept coming for him,” Sullivan said.
2009 COX PLATE
Sportingbet Australia market
Whobegotyou 2.50
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
Speed Gifted 8.00
El Segundo 10.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Manhattan Rain 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Black Piranha 16.00
So You Think 17.00
Rock Kingdom 21.00
Efficient 26.00
Viewed 31.00
Vigor 31.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Roman Emperor 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 61.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Jolies Shinju 101.00
Australian Idol form guide: Final 6
I didn't put up a new form guide for Australian Idol last week because it all seemed too hard - not putting up the form, but deciding where everyone was at.
But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.
So here's the form:
Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.
Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.
Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.
James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.
Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.
Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.
But last night's show helped. And my advice would be simple. The favourites are simply too short in the market. Stan is unlikely to win, and I'll explain why below. Hayley is too big a risk at $3.25. And Toby Moulton is the huge value bet.
So here's the form:
Stan Walker: Sportingbet $2.50; Betfair $1.82
Given how open the competition is right now, these are unbackable odds. As we know, and as goes largely unspoken, Idol is a game of demographics as much as it is one of talent. And Stan has a few things going against him - his playful arrogance, the whole God thing, and as unfortunate as it seems, his ethnic background could go against him. While 30% of the vote might be enough to sneak him into the final, it's unlikely that will carry him through to the title.
Hayley Warner Sportingbet $3.25; Betfair $2.82
In contrast to Stan, Hayley's demographics are all in her favour. Her attitude is right. But her vocal ability make her a risk. And that's what had her placed in the bottom three last week. Expect her to be at risk again this week. Her chances of winning the competition will all come down to an ability to survive. If she sneaks into the final two or three, she will be a hot chance.
Hayley should be safe this week as she's likely to pick up a proportion of Kim's votes.
Nathan Brake Sportingbet $4.50; Betfair $3.50
His performance this week has seen him shorten two points in the betting, and rightly so. But will his boyish looks and duck waddle be enough to turn people off. He's the trickiest of the final contestants to place.
James Johnston Sportingbet $7.50; Betfair $9.40
James just keeps improving from week to week, and he'll pick up the teen vote as others fall by the wayside. He has become far more humble as the weeks go by and might be the dark horse if he can continue to progress. His biggest downfall is song choice - RSL numbers just won't cut it with his strongest supporter base - the teens.
Toby Moulton Sportingbet $8.50; Betfair $7.20
The school teacher who will little doubt not teach too many kids again thanks to a new career in music is one of the biggest improvers. A small rise in confidence in coming weeks and he'll go very close to winning. As I think we'll see with Stan, it's much easier to turn people off than it is to turn them on, and there's not much to dislike about Toby. The $8.50 is huge value. If you got on him when he was $34, good luck to you.
Kate Cook $12; Betfair $11.50;
The country girl shot herself in the foot this week with the whole "not my thing" attitude, and is likely to disappear this week. The whole "she'll be right, mate" attitude can only get you so far. When you basically ignore the advice of a professional the calibre of Liza, you're history.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Four weeks worth of winners!
Aussiepunt has tipped followers winners four weeks in a row.
As readers know, each Friday we invite a guest tipster. We try to find people who have a bit of a clue, and it's proven worthwhile.
This week, Haydn Lane from IASbet knew the pressure was on. Three guest tipsters before him had sent our bankroll moving forward so he went in search of a few winners from the racing stable of the betting pit.
His leading racing tips, Shamoline Warrior and First Command both ran home, giving us a stress free weekend, and shooting our bankroll 30% further into the black.
The only let down was Jorge Lorenzo who, as watchers of this afternoon's Moto GP will know, skidded off the track on the first turn of the race.
For anyone who followed Haydn in the Caulfield Cup (and we're sorry we didn't) would have had an each way bet on Viewed, making their weekend even better.
At Aussiepunt, we share tips because we love what we do. That's why they're free. Here's some pretty good reasons to share the secret:
Week 1: Aussiepunt starts with a bankroll of $100. AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell tips two from four winners, including a 10-1 shot, spiralling our bankroll forward 67%.
Week 2: Matt Campbell from Sportsbet gives us only two tips. But one of them is Speed Gifted which runs home at 6-1. Our bankroll takes another 73% boost.
Week 3: Michael Sullivan, CEO from Sportingbet Australia gives us three tips. The two horses lose, although Tootsie runs second giving us each way odds. He makes up for it by tipping the soccer draw between the Socceroos and the Netherlands. Bankroll up 16%.
Week 4: Haydn Lane from IASbet and Sportsbet picks two winners which run home at $3.60 and $2.50 (on the tote, some might have taken higher odds with bookies earlier). Bankroll up 31%.
Bankroll boosts to some might seem smaller than they should be. But our formula is conservative to prepare us for possible losses. We put 10% on each of our guest tipsters tips, which mean we rarely invest more than 30% of our bankroll on any given weekend.
In addition to the above, we've tipped winners in rugby league, Australian Idol, cricket, rugby union and television. We've provided form guides for cricket, golf, football, politics, poker and other events. And we'll continue to do so.
Our bankroll sits triple what it started at. And we've taken some unlucky beats with narrow losses in cricket and footy.
But therein lies our mission: To gamble responsibly, having plenty of fun along the way.
As readers know, each Friday we invite a guest tipster. We try to find people who have a bit of a clue, and it's proven worthwhile.
This week, Haydn Lane from IASbet knew the pressure was on. Three guest tipsters before him had sent our bankroll moving forward so he went in search of a few winners from the racing stable of the betting pit.
His leading racing tips, Shamoline Warrior and First Command both ran home, giving us a stress free weekend, and shooting our bankroll 30% further into the black.
The only let down was Jorge Lorenzo who, as watchers of this afternoon's Moto GP will know, skidded off the track on the first turn of the race.
For anyone who followed Haydn in the Caulfield Cup (and we're sorry we didn't) would have had an each way bet on Viewed, making their weekend even better.
At Aussiepunt, we share tips because we love what we do. That's why they're free. Here's some pretty good reasons to share the secret:
Week 1: Aussiepunt starts with a bankroll of $100. AAP racing correspondent Grant Stockwell tips two from four winners, including a 10-1 shot, spiralling our bankroll forward 67%.
Week 2: Matt Campbell from Sportsbet gives us only two tips. But one of them is Speed Gifted which runs home at 6-1. Our bankroll takes another 73% boost.
Week 3: Michael Sullivan, CEO from Sportingbet Australia gives us three tips. The two horses lose, although Tootsie runs second giving us each way odds. He makes up for it by tipping the soccer draw between the Socceroos and the Netherlands. Bankroll up 16%.
Week 4: Haydn Lane from IASbet and Sportsbet picks two winners which run home at $3.60 and $2.50 (on the tote, some might have taken higher odds with bookies earlier). Bankroll up 31%.
Bankroll boosts to some might seem smaller than they should be. But our formula is conservative to prepare us for possible losses. We put 10% on each of our guest tipsters tips, which mean we rarely invest more than 30% of our bankroll on any given weekend.
In addition to the above, we've tipped winners in rugby league, Australian Idol, cricket, rugby union and television. We've provided form guides for cricket, golf, football, politics, poker and other events. And we'll continue to do so.
Our bankroll sits triple what it started at. And we've taken some unlucky beats with narrow losses in cricket and footy.
But therein lies our mission: To gamble responsibly, having plenty of fun along the way.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Big bet for Allez Wonder in Caulfield Cup
The odds of Bart Cummings winning a seventh Caulfield Cup have shortened dramatically in the last 24 hours as punters have backed all three of his chances at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Toorak winner Allez Wonder had shortened from $14 to $11 as big money arrived while Viewed and Roman Emperor had also been well backed.
“Allez Wonder has attracted the bulk of support including one bet of $130,000 to $10,000,” said Sullivan.
“But there’s also been good money for both Viewed and Roman Emperor at double figure odds.
“Bart is the Cups king and punters think can break his Caulfield Cup drought tomorrow.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering a market on whether or not either Anthony or Bart Cummings will supply a placegetter with punters backing the yes option in from $2.00 into $1.90.
“It may be a dozen years since the Cummings name has figured on the honour roll of placegetters but punters are certainly confident that between them they can end the drought this year,” Sullivan said.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Toorak winner Allez Wonder had shortened from $14 to $11 as big money arrived while Viewed and Roman Emperor had also been well backed.
“Allez Wonder has attracted the bulk of support including one bet of $130,000 to $10,000,” said Sullivan.
“But there’s also been good money for both Viewed and Roman Emperor at double figure odds.
“Bart is the Cups king and punters think can break his Caulfield Cup drought tomorrow.”
Sportingbet Australia is also offering a market on whether or not either Anthony or Bart Cummings will supply a placegetter with punters backing the yes option in from $2.00 into $1.90.
“It may be a dozen years since the Cummings name has figured on the honour roll of placegetters but punters are certainly confident that between them they can end the drought this year,” Sullivan said.
Randwick longshot well backed
Punters have sensationally backed former South African galloper Seventh Rock to win tomorrow’s Lightning Handicap at Randwick.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.
“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”
“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”
The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some spirited betting had forced the price of the entire from $61 to $21.
“We had one punter back it to win $10,000 as soon as markets opened and it’s been a steady stream since.”
“While the horse may have been disappointing since hitting our shores, there was merit in his last run and reports are strong that David Payne has turned this bloke around.”
The Alan Denham trained Youthful Jack is Sportingbet Australia’s Lightning Handicap favourite at $3.50.
Haydn Lane this week's guest tipster
IASbet public relations manager Haydn Lane might be best known for having his finger on the pulse in AFL circles.
And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.
Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.
But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.
He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.
"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.
Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:
Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).
Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.
Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.
As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.
If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.
And he's certainly promised to share some winners with aussiepunt readers when next season rolls around.
Haydn's also a pretty handy cricketer, having spent a season batting and tweaking off-spinners at Middlesex, and another as Boston Cricket Club's overseas pro in the Lincolnshire Premier League. Locally, he plays for Melbourne CC and has trained with the Victorian squad.
But that's all behind us. What is more to the point is that we happen to know Haydn has some pretty good connections with the nags. He's owned a few and will no doubt be seen burrowing around Caulfield tomorrow.
He knows he's under immense pressure this week, following in the footsteps of three Friday guest tipsters who've each put us in the black.
"I'll have to do some digging then," he said, perhaps a little nervously. And dig he did, hassling a few of the racing gurus in the betting pit.
Here's Haydn's three picks for the weekend:
Caulfield, Race 4: Number 2, Shamoline Warrior (currently paying $3.60).
Caulfield, Race 9: Number 4, First Command (currently paying $3.40).
Haydn says he's very keen on this one.
Australian Moto GP: Jorge Lorenzo (currently at $3)
Haydn says to back Lorenzo straight out as he's been in super form. That advice comes despite Casey Stoner's return from injury.
As always, we'll be riding with our guest tipster with 10% of our bankroll (now at $260) on each of Haydn's selections. At those odds, we'll be taking the horses to cross the line first.
If you're looking for an each way punt on the Caulfield Cup, Haydn suggests Viewed each way at $14 is worth a shot, and Master O'Reilly to run a big race from a wide barrier.
Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope
Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:
While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.
"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.
"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.
"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."
Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.
From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.
For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.
No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.
However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.
"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."
While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.
"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.
"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.
"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."
Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.
From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.
For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.
No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.
However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.
"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support
Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.
Here's the release:
Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!
The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.
Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.
Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.
“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.
The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.
The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.
One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.
And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.
Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.
CAULFIELD CUP
$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)
Here's the release:
Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!
The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.
Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.
Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.
“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.
The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.
The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.
One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.
And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.
Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.
CAULFIELD CUP
$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)
Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets
Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.
The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:
KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS
European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.
“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.
“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”
Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.
2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00
2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:
KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS
European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.
“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.
“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”
Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.
2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00
2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
November 9 WSOP final table form guide
World Series of Poker
November 9 final table
Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.
Here's our assessments:
Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.
Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?
Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.
Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.
Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.
Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.
Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.
James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.
Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.
November 9 final table
Not too many bookies are taking odds on the WSOP final table as yet, but there's plenty of interest in those who are. And it's an interesting mix of chip counts and personalities who will mix it up for the $8.5 million first prize.
Here's our assessments:
Darvin Moon (58,930,000 chips)
Sportsbet $3.50; Luxbet $3.80; Betway $3.75
The 45-year-old logging company owner is remarkably one of the oldest at the final table. He is also massive chip leader which is the primary reason for his favouritism. He has more than a quarter of all chips at the table, and has been proud of the fact that he hasn’t yet had to commit all his chips to a showdown. That's right. Not one all in bet in eight days of play.
Despite playing poker at the young age of 12 with his grandfather, Moon only discovered Texas holdem three years ago, which many would see as a disadvantage under the pressure of a final table, television lights, crowds and all that goes with it.
He made the main event after entering a $130 buy in tournament at Wheeling, West Virginia. Not a bad investment for someone who wanted to play poker to help raise money for local fire halls and other charities.
He puts his success so far down to “good cards” … a humble assessment.
Not only will Moon start the bookie’s favourite. He will also take some sentimental support with him into the final days of play. He is certainly well placed.
Eric Buchman (34,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $4.75; Luxbet $5.25; Betway $5
The 29-year-old New Yorker has been a professional poker player for the best part of nine years and goes into the final in a terrific position, albeit more than 20 million behind the chip leader.
Buchman is familiar with big tournament environments, having won the 2004 New England Poker Classic, and run second in three WSOP bracelet events. But therein lies the worry for punters. Buchman seems to have trouble finishing off the job. He's also had 10 WSOP cashes.
Without progressing further, the final table will be the biggest earnings of his career, more than doubling his $900,000 or so earnings on the tour so far.
Buchman had his moment of luck on day 7 when he risked all his chips with A-10 of hearts against pocket jacks. He hit the flush to double up to 6 million chips.
Buchman is an accomplished player, but will a line of runners up finishes come back to haunt him if he finds himself heads up?
Phil Ivey (9,765,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $6
This is where the quality of the player and the number of chips starts to mess with punters' heads. Phil Ivey is regarded by most as the best poker player in the world. But he sits 7th in chip stack at the start of the final table, which is something which does not necessarily suit his aggressive style of play.
If anyone can change up to suit the conditions, it's Ivey, and that's why there is money for him to win the event from well behind.
Ivey has seven WSOP bracelets already to his name, and if he's in the final three - regardless of chip stack - you'd back him to win.
All others at the final table will fear his presence, and they will be aware of his uncanny ability to read his opposition.
But chip stack is a worry and even a player of his supreme calibre will need a little luck from where he sits.
Steven Begleiter (29,885,000 chips)
Sportsbet $6.50; Luxbet $6; Betway $7
As senior principal of investment broker Flexpoint Ford, this New Yorker has premium business pedigree. And he'll start the final table with a healthy chip stack, plenty of confidence, and a crowd of support behind him.
Like Buchman, his moment of luck came on day 7 when he pushed all in with A-Q against pocket kings. The ace hit on the turn which led to a 10 million chip swing.
Remarkably, Begleiter won his seat in a home game, which means he'll be splitting his winnings with friends of that game. They'll each pocket a percentage of the winnings, and will likely be a vocal part of the crowd at the main event finish.
He's already made his way through 6485 opponents to make the final table, and if business acumen can be applied to poker, he'll be a genuine chance.
But the question mark here is whether brains can overcome street smarts when it comes to buckling in to pressure poker. After all, we're essentially talking about a home game player.
With that in mind, even the 7-1 at Betway is a little tight, regardless of Begleiter's chip stack.
Jeff Shulman (19,580,000 chips)
Sportsbet $7; Luxbet $6.50; Betway $7
The CardPlayer Magazine editor, 34, has a point to prove, and if determination to win the World Series counts for anything, Shulman will be right up there in the finish.
Opposition magazine Bluff was given the rights to sponsor the event, and Shulman has voiced his "lack of respect" for the WSOP management "and what they've done to all of the players". He has said he might throw away his bracelet if he wins the event. Them's fighting words!
They say there's no place for anger at the poker table, but Shulman is a seasoned professional, having already made a final table in 2000 when he cashed in for $146,000. It's nothing like the $1.2 million guaranteed for ninth place finish at this year's event, but the experience will count when it comes to coping with final table pressure.
Further in his favour, Phil Hellmuth is coaching Shulman in the months leading up to the event, no doubt pocketing a percentage of the winnings for his services.
However, Shulman's experience is below that of Buchman, career earnings of about $400,000 well below Buchman, and his starting chip stack about 10 million below Buchman.
While "justice" might be his objective, the odds are perhaps a little under where they should be.
Kevin Schaffel (12,390,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $15; Betway $13
From Coral Springs, Florida, this 51-year-old man is a value bet at the final table. At $17, we only need to look at his recent form which have led to his $640,000+ in poker earnings to believe he is a chance to win.
Schaffel is yet to win a bracelet, but he's come close, finishing second in the Legends of Poker event in August this year.
The father of two sits in sixth spot and has some nasty opposition to leapfrog.
Like all those around him, he'll need some luck. But the odds are not indicative of his pedigree as a poker player.
Joe Cada (13,215,000 chips)
Sportsbet $17; Luxbet $12; Betway $13
The youngest man in the field aims to repeat the efforts of another 21-year-old Peter Eastgate. What would be the chances of that? Two 21-year-olds in successive years, both breaking a record Phil Hellmuth held for 24 years as the youngest ever world champion.
Cada cashed twice in tournaments leading up to the main event and has proven an established young player.
He sits neatly in the middle of the pack and could make his mark on the chip leaders with a little luck on the first day of the final table.
He's already showed during the tournament that he's happy to be aggressive, re-raising Phil Ivey and causing him to fold several times before the final table.
He won't be scared off and could have been even better placed if his aces hadn't been cracked by 10s on Day 8. Cada is a wildcard and might be worth a gentle punt at the odds of $17.
James Akenhead (6,800,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $21
In terms of recent form, the 26-year-old British poker professional is perhaps the most highly credentialled at the table. But his chip stack is the problem. He starts November 9 in 9th place and will need some luck in the running to make good from there.
But in percentage terms, he's not much worse off than anybody up to double his own chip stack, but the danger lies in that an all-in bet against anybody else at the table puts his tournament life at risk.
He finished 4th in the 2008 UK Open, came runner up in the same year at a WSOP bracelet event and in 2007 won a $1000 buy in event during the Bellagio Cup. He is sponsored and, winnings included, very well paid.
If he had twice the chips, he'd be half his current odds. In poker terms, that's just one fortunate hand away.
He might not win the event, but he's one player who is priced over the odds.
Antoine Saout (9,500,000 chips)
Sportsbet $21; Luxbet $18; Betway $19
The Frenchman is the second European at the table and the rank outsider to win the event. He is similarly short-stacked alongside Phil Ivey and will need some luck to get himself back into the tournament.
But he's showed his final table appearance is more than luck with a final table appearance in the Europe Main Event earlier this month.
He played to the left of Ivey for the last three days of the WSOP main event, so position won't worry him. Saout has only been playing poker for about 18 months, so it is no wonder punters are doubting his ability to bust through far more experienced opponents.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Whobegotyou firms after Maldivian ruled out of Cox Plate
Below is a media statement released today by Sportingbet Australia:
WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT
The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.
“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.
“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”
2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00
WHOBEGOTYOU FIRMS AS MALDIVIAN RULED OUT
The Mark Kavanagh trained Whobegotyou has firmed into $2.50 to win the Cox Plate following the news that stablemate Maldivian has been ruled out of the remainder of the Spring Carnival.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Maldivian looked to be Whobegotyou’s biggest rival.
“Whobegotyou has shortened from $3.00 to $2.60 following the news of Maldivian’s unfortunate injury,” Sullivan said.
“Whobegotyou is short enough a couple of weeks out from the race and we will be looking to lay him now despite his tremendous record at the Valley.
“But punters were already considering it a match race and there don’t look to many challenges to Whobegotyou as the heir to the title of Australia’s weight for age champion.”
2009 COX PLATE – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 2.60
Heart Of Dreams 7.00
El Segundo 10.00
Predatory Pricer 10.00
Speed Gifted 11.00
Scenic Shot 13.00
Vision And Power 15.00
Black Piranha 17.00
Efficient 19.00
So You Think 21.00
Zipping 31.00
Manhattan Rain 31.00
Red Ruler 31.00
Viewed 35.00
Daffodil 41.00
Master Oreilly 41.00
Kirklees 41.00
Road To Rock 41.00
Rangirangdoo 41.00
Cest La Guerre 51.00
Nom Du Jeu 51.00
Extra Zero 51.00
Vigor 51.00
Onemorenomore 81.00
Tickets 81.00
Roman Emperor 81.00
Zarita 81.00
Trusting 81.00
Gallica 151.00
Sarrera 151.00
Magical Pearl 151.00
Chasm 251.00
Mentality 301.00
Douro Valley 301.00
Prima Nova 301.00
Sir Slick 301.00
Sound Of Nature 301.00
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