Showing posts with label Melbourne Cup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Melbourne Cup. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Novelty bets for Melbourne Cup

Some people like to hedge their bets by putting money on multiple horses for the Melbourne Cup. Some bookies are providing options which might make far more sense.

Here are some of the novelty bets being put up by Sportsbet. Some might of course have changed since this morning's scratching:

Can Bart Cummings continue his golden run and win his thirteenth Melbourne Cup?
Bart Cummings to train the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner $2.90

Pick the star sign of the Melbourne Cup winner, based on their foaling date.
Aquarius/Pisces/Aries/Taurus $5.30 Basaltico, Changingoftheguard, Crime Scene, Mourilyan, Munsef, Warringah
Leo/Virgo $4.10 Allez Wonder, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Shocking
Libra $2.65 Capecover, C’est La Gueere, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem, Roman Emperor, Viewed
Scorpio/Sagittarius $3.30 Alcopop, Master O’Rielly, Newport, Spin Around, Zavite

Will the Melbourne Cup winner be posh, middle class or a pauper? Based on career earnings to date.
Posh ($1.1M+ career earnings) $2.60 Fiumicino, Ista Kareem, Master O’Rielly, Roman Emperor, Spin Around, Viewed
Middle Class ($500,000 - $1.099M) $4.80 Allez Wonder, C’est La Guerre, Crime Scene, Daffodil, Gallions Reach, Kibbutz, Munsef, Newport, Zavite
Paupers (less than $500,000) $2 Alcopop, Basaltico, Capecover, Changingoftheguard, Harris Tweed, Leica Ding, Mourilyan, Shocking, Warringah

Will the Melbourne Cup winner have placed at Headquarters before or will it be a Flemington virgin?
Virgins $1.67 Fiumicino, Basaltico, Mourilyan, Roman Emperor, Crime Scene, Munsef, Alcopop, Harris Tweed, Warringah, Gallions Reach, Spin Around, Daffodil, Changingoftheguard, Leica Ding
Pros $2.20 Viewed, C’est La Guerre, Master O’Reilly, Ista Kareem, Zavite, Kibbutz, Newport, Capecover, Shocking, Allez Wonder

Can you pick the age of the Melbourne Cup winner?
4YO $2.80
5YO $3.10
6YO $3.75
7YO+ $6.00

Can you pick where the Melbourne Cup winner will start from?
Barriers 1-8 $5.80
Barriers 9-16 $1.45
Barriers 17-24 $4.30

Got a thing for even or odd numbers? Cheer for 12 horses in the Melbourne Cup.
Odd number $1.60
Even number $2.35

In the Alpha-Bet market below, punters can select the group from which the winning horse will come from.
Group A $2.75 Alcopop, Allez Wonder, Basaltico, Capecover, C’est La Guree
Group B $9 Crime Scene, Daffodil, Fiumicino, Gallions Reach, Harris Tweed, Ista Kareem
Group C $5 Kibbutz, Leica Ding, Master O’Rielly, Munsef, Newport
Group D $2.25 Roman Emperor, Shocking, Spin Around, Viewed, Warringah, Zavite

Fancy one nag over another? Take your pick in the following Head to Head markets.

VIEWED VS ALCOPOP
Viewed $1.90
Alcopop $1.90

CRIME SCENE VS BASALTICO
Crime Scene $2.70
Basaltico $1.45

VIEWED VS ROMAN EMPEROR
Viewed $1.50
Roman Emperor $2.55

Alcopop into Melbourne Cup favouritism

Straight from the bookies, this latest release came five minutes ago:

Alcopop has been backed into $5.00 outright favourite at Sportingbet Australia after some huge wagers were placed on the fairytale story of this year’s Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Alcopop had been backed into $5.00 while last year’s Cup winner, Viewed, had drifted out to $5.50.

“Alcopop has been the only one they have wanted in the past 24 hours and we have taken bets of $120,000 and $35,000 on him,” Sullivan said.

“The money has dried up a little for Viewed but I am sure the Bart Cummings factor will see that change before jump time.

“Alcopop is clearly our worst result at the moment while AJC Oaks winner Daffodil is also nasty after some big bets including one of $300,000 to $20,000 were placed on her.”


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Alcopop 5.00
Viewed 5.50
Roman Emperor 8,50
Shocking 10.00
Master O’Reilly 12.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 21.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 31.00
Warringah 31.00
C’est La Guerre 31.00
Newport 41.00
Crime Scene 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 71.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 81.00
Zavite 81.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 126.00
Spin Around 201.00
Gallion’s Reach 251.00

Monday, November 2, 2009

Read tips Roman Emperor in Melbourne Cup

This year's Melbourne Cup shapes as one of the most memorable in years if the buildup is anything to go by, says IASbet's Mark Read.

"At the top of the market there's the people's hero from the bush in Alcopop ($5) and the returning champ from the people's trainer Bart Cummings in Viewed ($5)," he said.

"Shocking ($10) put in a most eye-catching run in the Lexus on Derby Day, and has been very well backed since he snuck into the field. Mark Kavanagh's luck of late has been just that Shocking and hopefully this horse can erase some of the bad memories over the past few weeks."

"I think Roman Emperor ($9) represents great value in this year's Cup. His last run was a solid second to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup, who had the sort of run that jockeys and punters dream of.

"He's an AJC Derby winner, is bred to get the trip, and has the man of the moment in his corner.

"Looking to the other races on the day for winners, Ortensia ($2.10) looks almost unbeatable in the Herald Sun Stakes over 1400m. Back to her own sex, Williams should give her the gun run and she should be too strong for these."

"Another shortie is Mark Kavanagh's Defintely Ready ($1.40) in the Schweppes Tonic 1000. His three career runs have all been dominant wins and he is simply in another class to his rivals.

Because of the short quotes on offer, perhaps have the Ortensia/Definitely Ready running double and then use that money to bet later on the Cup."

$35K bet for Alcopop in Melbourne Cup

The big punters are warming to fairytale horse Alcopop for the Melbourne Cup with some huge bets arriving for the gelding at Sportingbet Australia.

Alcopop is $5.50 second favourite behind Viewed at $5.00 but Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said some big bets are seeing him challenge for favouritism.

“We took a bet of $35,000 at $5.50 this morning so that punter stands to collect nearly $200,000 and he has clearly been the best backed since the barrier draw,” Sullivan said.

“I always expected the Bart Cummings factor would ensure Viewed ran favourite but the money we are seeing come for Alcopop could well change that.

“Shocking’s win on Saturday really stamped his form and punters could still make him one of the most unlikely Cup favourites ever.”

Latest Melbourne Cup betting action

At least one punter is confident Daffodil can improve for the Melbourne Cup. They've unloaded $20K on the result. Below is the Sportingbet release:

PUNTERS UNLOAD ON DAFFODIL

Big money has arrived for AJC Oaks winner Daffodil to win the Melbourne Cup with one massive bet struck at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Daffodil shortened from $18 to $14 since the barrier draw on Saturday night as punters warmed to the mare.

“We took a bet of $300,000 to $20,000 on Daffodil along with a number of other good bets on the way in,” Sullivan said.

“Her win in the Oaks showed she is up to this class and her run in the Caulfield Cup suggests the 3200m will suit.

“She is certainly one of the top chances just below favourites Viewed and Alcopop.”

Viewed remains favourite at Sportingbet at $5.00 ahead of Alcopop at $5.50 and Roman Emperor at $9.00.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Viewed 5.00
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 9.00
Shocking 11.00
Master O’Reilly 13.00
Daffodil 14.00
Leica Ding 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Basaltico 21.00
Mourilyan 21.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Warringah 26.00
C’est La Guerre 26.00
Newport 35.00
Munsef 51.00
Crime Scene 51.00
Fiumicino 61.00
Kibbutz 71.00
Ista Kareem 71.00
Zavite 71.00
Capecover 81.00
Harris Tweed 101.00
Gallion’s Reach 201.00
Spin Around 201.00

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Not a great weekend

As we always say, we'll tell it warts at all at Aussiepunt, and Derby Day wasn't that great for us.

We backed Rockferry to win the Victoria Derby which wasn't a terrific choice. But we've lost 7% of our bankroll, and it's time to move on - get back on the horse, as they say.

Tuesday is the biggest race day on the calendar and we'll be spending a portion of tomorrow trying to find some winners for everybody.

We'll give you all the news from corporate bookmakers to see where the money's going for the Melbourne Cup. Shocking is no doubt firming after a good run at the weekend. Expect Viewed to start favourite over Alcopop. Value will be with Master O'Reilly and Mourilyan.

But rest assured, we won't be forgetting the other races on the card.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Efficient a gamble in Melbourne Cup

If you're keen to back Efficient in the Melbourne Cup, now seems to be the time to do it:

With 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient still having to pass a vet examination before he is cleared to run on Tuesday, Sporting Australia CEO Michael Sullivan has pledged to refund any bets on him if he doesn’t line up for the Cup.

Sullivan said any bets up to $500 placed between 3.30pm on Thursday, when doubts over the horses arose and Saturday evening when the final field was declared would be refunded if he didn’t overcome the injury.

“Efficient has been posted as unlikely and normally at this stage there are no scratching refunds or deductions on other horses prices if a horse is withdrawn but I think in this case refunding punters money is the right thing to do,” Sullivan said.

“There are some doubts over the horse and many punters like to get their Cup bets on early so we are just providing them with the assurance they won’t do their money if he is ruled out.

“Obviously all bets on any scratched runner are refunded once the final field is declared but that is not until Saturday night.”

Effiecient blew from $6.00 to 8.50 at Sportingbet Australia yesterday as punters rushed to back other contenders.

“Punters put big money down yesterday on Viewed and Alcopop who are now $5.50 joint favourites while there was also strong support for Roman Emperor who shortened from $12 to $8.50,” Sullivan said.

“If all is well with Efficient though, punters are now getting great value about a former winner, who is in great form and obviously proven at the two miles.”

2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Viewed 5.50
Alcopop 5.50
Roman Emperor 8.50
Efficient (unlikely) 8.50
Vigor 14.00
Daffodil 15.00
Zipping 16.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Mourilyan 23.00
Kirklees 23.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Capecover 41.00
Munsef 51.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Kibbutz 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Hume 61.00
Others 81.00 Plus

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Good offer for Melbourne Cup

Sportsbet is offering one of the better deals I've seen for the Melbourne Cup. You'd be hard-pressed finding a similar offer from the TAB.

Sportsbet.com.au is offering punters their money back if Cups King Bart Cummings claims his 13th Melbourne Cup on Tuesday.

If your horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse, Sportsbet.com.au will refund your stake to a maximum of $100.

“With the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate already in Bart’s trophy cabinet, the others in this year’s Cup could well be fighting for second place,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“As such, we’re offering punters their money back if their horse finishes second to a Bart Cummings trained horse.

“At the moment Bart has three runners with good chances (Viewed $6.50, Roman Emperor $10, Allez Wonder $34) and the special will remain if he manages to get Dandaad or Naval Escort into the Cup field via the Lexus Stakes.”

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Melbourne Cup action

Expect some action in the Melbourne Cup markets immediately following acceptance.

Following is an unedited statement released today by Sportingbet Australia.

PUNTERS SWEAT ON START FOR VIGOR

Sportingbet Australia punters are sweating on the Danny O’Brien trained Vigor gaining a start in next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup with one punter standing to win over half a million dollars.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Vigor was clearly Sportingbet’s worst way at the moment with punters backing him since the all in markets opened.

“Vigor opened up as a $51 shot and punters stepped in with one bet of $500,000 to $10,000 and other punters on to win $100,000 and $50,000 at those odds,” said Sullivan.

“He’s been as short as $8.50 and has not lost popularity at any stage.”

Vigor is currently at odds of $18.00 but Sullivan said those odds would trim up if he got a run.

“His run in the Caulfield Cup was superb and if he gets a run without having to race this weekend, those odds will tighten up significantly,” Sullivan said.

Alcopop and Efficient remain $6 joint favourites at Sportingbet ahead of the Bart Cummings pair of Viewed and Roman Emperor at $7 and $11 respectively.


2009 MELBOURNE CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 6.00
Viewed 7.00
Roman Emperor 11.00
Zipping 14.00
Master O’Reilly 17.00
Daffodil 17.00
Changingoftheguard 18.00
Vigor 18.00
Mourilyan 19.00
Leica Ding 23.00
Shocking 26.00
Warringah 26.00
Allez Wonder 26.00
Cest La Guerre 31.00
Kirklees 35.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Cima De Triomphe 61.00
Basaltico 61.00
Dandaad 61.00
Crime Scene 61.00
Others 71.00 Plus

Monday, October 26, 2009

Punters go early for Bart in Melbourne Cup

Bart Cummings has won the season's two major races. Punters think he's a fair bet to pick up a remarkable treble in the Melbourne Cup.

At $4.50, there are better bets for mine.

Bart Cummings has been posted as a $4.50 chance to complete a historic treble and win a thirteenth Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had launched into Bart Cumming’s horses in both the Caulfield Cup and the Cox Plate and were doing the same for next Tuesday’s big one.

“Bart Cummings is undoubtedly the best trainer of stayers we have ever seen and punters have had a fill up following him this Spring again,” Sullivan said.

“Punters have been backing all his runners for the Cup so we have posted a price of $4.50 for any one of his horses to give him another Cup win.

“Viewed and Roman Emperor are obviously his best chances after they ran the quinella in the Caulfield Cup but it would be silly to write off any of his chances.”

Sullivan said he expected punters to lap up the $4.50 on offer for the master trainer.

“Punters and particularly fans of Bart have full pockets following the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate wins and I would expect them to launch again for the Cup,” he said.

‘I can’t see many punters been willing to take the $1.20 about him not been able to get the job done a thirteenth time.”

Will Bart Cummings Win the 2009 Melbourne Cup

Yes, Bart Cummings will win the Cup $4.50
No, Bart Cummings will not win the Cup $1.20

Friday, October 16, 2009

Daffodil a serious Caulfield Cup hope

Following is an unedited statement released by IASbet this morning. This isn't our Friday guest tipster spot, but might well be worth a serious look:

While the weather reporters are predicting doom and gloom from the skies for the Caulfield Cup, IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read predicts Daffodil will win this years Caulfield Cup.

"The pace of the race begins at a slow tempo as Zavite leads from Light Vision and Vigor, while Kirklees gets the run in the box seat," explains Read.

"Daffodil's rating is at its highest when racing at a mile and a half like we saw this year in the AJC Oaks, and is blessed with the low weight.

"She comes into this race at peak fitness and is unquestionably a main threat."

Opposing horses for the Caulfield Cup has been generalized by Read as he has taken aim at the English stayers Cima De Triomphe and Kirklees.

From a value prospective, Kirklees is poorly handicapped in the race whilst Cima De Triomphe has the task of coming from the rear off the back of a slow tempo, declared Read.

For those looking for a roughie, Light Vision's price is tremendous each way value.

No doubt the absence of crowd favourite Maldivian in this Saturdays Caulfield Cup has somewhat soured the pre post punters who wagered on last years Cox Plate to win a long overdue Caulfield Cup at $15.

However a shining light has appeared into the punters darkness as IASbet.com bookmaker Mark Read declared that he will pay back all lost pre-post bets on Maldivian, given that he owes the horse one.

"Ironically this horse has been an ally of mine," stated Read. "Firstly he would have sent me to the cleaners had he won the Caulfield Cup although was scratched at the barriers and then he saved my skin by winning last years Cox Plate at the big odds. Given that we may not see him again its the least I can do for him."

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Cima de Triomphe gets Caulfield Cup support

Just as we release a report that punters are going for Kirklees, Centrebet puts out a release saying Cima de Triomphe has claims.

Here's the release:

Cima de Triomphe all the rage to win the Caulfield Cup!

The Luca Cumani-trained Cima de Triomphe – the horse the stable rates better than Bauer - continues to push for Caulfield Cup favouritism with leading bookmaker Centrebet after another surge of money today.

Centrebet media chief and race analyst Neil Evans said Cima de Triomphe again is the most sought-after runner in the 24 hours after the barrier draw! “The Cumani camp was delighted to come up with a middle gate (11) and the constant talk of the this being one of the finest gallopers the stable has ever had - and the fact Damien Oliver is on board - has only added to punters’ expectations,” Evans said.

Cima de Triomphe was $10 going into the draw, but has been heavily backed in to $8 clear second favourite on Centrebet, with nearly $25,000 invested.

“We’ve taken bets of $8000 at $9, $5000.00 at $9.50, $2000 at $9.50 and $2500 at $9 amid a long string of wagers between $100 and $1000. The money keeps coming, and it seems only a matter of time before it displaces fellow overseas raider Kirklees ($7.50) at the top of the market.

The Paul Murray-trained Predatory Pricer, despite easing from $8 to $8.50, remains the most popular local hope, with bets of $3500 and $2000 both at $8, while one punter believes the Lloyd Williams-owned C’est le Guerre - third in last year’s Melbourne Cup - can win, unloading $1500 at $18.

The other very well backed runner on Centrebet is Kiwi star Daffodil who has firmed from $13 down to $9.50 in a matter of days after several thousand arrived, including bets of $3000 at $11 and $2000 at $13.

One-time favourite Vigor has also fought back, firming one point today from $11 into $10.

And Whobegotyou has taken an almost unprecedented stranglehold on betting for the Cox Plate (2040m) on Oct 24, now in to $2.60 on Centrebet, with weight-for-age rival Heart of Dreams ($7.50) the only other runner in single figures.

Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted is in to $11, but the fairytale story is WA star Scenic Scot who has been backed in opening markets from $101 down to $12, and will ignite a near $1 million loss if it wins the famous Plate.

CAULFIELD CUP

$7.50 Kirklees (in from $11)
$8 Cima de Triomphe (in from $9.50)
$8.50 Predatory Pricer (out from $8)
$9.50 Daffodil (in from $11)
$10 Vigor (in from $11)
$10 Allez Wonder (in from $16)
$14 Master O'Reilly (out from $13)
$14 Red Ruler (out from $11)
$16 Viewed (out from $14)
$16 Roman Emperor (in from $19)
$21 C’est le Guerre (out from $17)
$21 Light Vision (out from $19)
$21 Shocking (2nd res, out from $17)
$26 Harris Tweed (in from $31)
$34 Red Lord (in from $41)
$41 Sarrera (out from $34)
$41 Ready to Lift (out from $34)
$51 Fiumicino (out from $41)
$51 Zavite (in from $71)
$61 Baughurst (1st res, out from $51)
$71 Newport (3rd res, in from $81)
$71 Miss Darcey (4th res, in from $151.00)

Latest Caulfield and Melbourne Cup markets

Kirklees trainers were last night gloating about their horse's chances in the Caulfield Cup, particularly when they got a favourable barrier draw.

The markets seem to be trending in their favour, as the latest release from Sportingbet Australia suggests:

KIRKLEES GETS SUPPORT FOR BOTH CUPS

European stayer Kirklees has been backed in from $11 to $9 to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing him to go right on with the job and win the Melbourne Cup.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said he was expecting good support for the Saeed Bin Suroor entire for Saturday’s race but the Melbourne Cup support came out of the blue.

“We were expecting plenty of money for Kirklees at Caufield but were a little surprised when a punter backed him to win $120,000 in the Melbourne Cup at $31.00,” said Sullivan.

“While this fellow has a great record from a mile and a quarter to a mile and a half, you’d have to consider him a significant risk at two miles.”

Kirklees is now rated a $21 chance to win the Melbourne Cup.

2009 CAULFIELD CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cima De Triomphe 7.50
Predatory Pricer 8.50
Daffodil 8.50
Kirklees 9.00
Vigor 10.00
Allez Wonder 13.00
Viewed 14.00
Master O’Reilly 15.00
Red Ruler 15.00
C’est La Guerre 17.00
Roman Emperor 19.00
Light Vision 21.00
Harris Tweed 31.00
Red Lord 31.00
Shocking 31.00
Ready To Lift 41.00
Fiumicino 51.00
Sarrera 51.00
Zavite 51.00
Baughurst 51.00
Newport 101.00
Miss Darcey 101.00

2009 MELBOURNE CUP – ALL IN
Sportingbet Australia Market
Efficient 6.00
Alcopop 7.00
Speed Gifted 7.50
Viewed 11.00
Cest La Guerre 15.00
Vigor 15.00
Master Oreilly 17.00
Cima De Triomphe 17.00
Daffodil 21.00
Kirklees 21.00
Allez Wonder 21.00
Shocking 23.00
Roman Emperor 26.00
Light Vision 26.00
Changingoftheguard 31.00
Zipping 31.00
Mourilyan 31.00
Basaltico 41.00
Ista Kareem 41.00
Dandaad 41.00
Munsef 41.00
Capecover 41.00
Others 51.00 Plus