For anybody who thinks Manly is a chance against Melbourne tonight, it seems you are not alone. At least one other person agrees with you.
I had a look at the "Last Man Standing" competition on Sportingbet, of the 1000 or so people still remaining out of an initial 10,000+, 291 of them are sweating on a Melbourne victory.
A solitary one wants Manly to win.
By that reckoning, you could safely say the $3.25 on offer for a Manly win is slightly under the odds. Likewise, it's probably safe to say that the bookies will be cheering on Jamie Lyon and his crew.
Showing posts with label NRL tips. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NRL tips. Show all posts
Monday, April 19, 2010
Monday, April 12, 2010
Brisbane Broncos premiership chances
Granted, there are some young players, but look at their performance in round 1 when they had Corey Parker, Israel Folau and Denan Kemp in the lineup and they were indeed a different side.
That in mind, this bet might have some justification:
NRL: BRONCOS BACKED TO WIN OVER $250,000
One punter certainly thinks the Broncos are set to kick off a massive form reversal against the Sharks this weekend, backing them to win over $250,000 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Broncos had drifted to $67 roughies for the Premiership after a fourth consecutive loss to the Dragons on Friday night but at least one punter certainly thinks they are still contenders.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Broncos cruel run of injuries would make it very hard for them to be genuine contenders though.
“We have shortened the Broncos from $67 to $41 after taking a bet of $264,000 to $4000 but realistically they will need luck to even make the finals,” Sullivan said.
“The Broncos are desperate for reinforcements but by the time the lies of Folau, Parker and Hodges get back on the park, they might be already too far gone.”
Sullivan said it was the biggest price he could remember the Broncos being at this stage of the season.
“If it was any other team, you would simply rule a line through their name and say they were no chance of making the eight,” he said.
“The Broncos have a history of coming back though and $67 is an enormous price for any side with the likes of Lockyer, Wallace, Thaiday in the side and hopefully Folau and Hodges to return.”
2010 NRL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
Melbourne Storm 4.50
St George Dragons 6.00
Wests Tigers 7.00
Parramatta Eels 9.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Manly Sea Eagles 11.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 21.00
Sydney Roosters 21.00
New Zealand Warriors 26.00
North Qld Cowboys 34.00
Brisbane Broncos 41.00
Canberra Raiders 101.00
Newcastle Knights 101.00
Cronulla Sharks 151.00
That in mind, this bet might have some justification:
NRL: BRONCOS BACKED TO WIN OVER $250,000
One punter certainly thinks the Broncos are set to kick off a massive form reversal against the Sharks this weekend, backing them to win over $250,000 at Sportingbet Australia.
The Broncos had drifted to $67 roughies for the Premiership after a fourth consecutive loss to the Dragons on Friday night but at least one punter certainly thinks they are still contenders.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Broncos cruel run of injuries would make it very hard for them to be genuine contenders though.
“We have shortened the Broncos from $67 to $41 after taking a bet of $264,000 to $4000 but realistically they will need luck to even make the finals,” Sullivan said.
“The Broncos are desperate for reinforcements but by the time the lies of Folau, Parker and Hodges get back on the park, they might be already too far gone.”
Sullivan said it was the biggest price he could remember the Broncos being at this stage of the season.
“If it was any other team, you would simply rule a line through their name and say they were no chance of making the eight,” he said.
“The Broncos have a history of coming back though and $67 is an enormous price for any side with the likes of Lockyer, Wallace, Thaiday in the side and hopefully Folau and Hodges to return.”
2010 NRL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
Melbourne Storm 4.50
St George Dragons 6.00
Wests Tigers 7.00
Parramatta Eels 9.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Manly Sea Eagles 11.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 21.00
Sydney Roosters 21.00
New Zealand Warriors 26.00
North Qld Cowboys 34.00
Brisbane Broncos 41.00
Canberra Raiders 101.00
Newcastle Knights 101.00
Cronulla Sharks 151.00
Thursday, April 8, 2010
NRL Parramatta Eels to fire up
It's been a rough week for the Parramatta Eels with Nathan Cayless announcing it will be his last season.
We thought the death of their young fan would inspire them a couple of weeks ago, but if harsh criticism from all angles, including within the club, doesn't get some energy out of under-performing players, nothing will.
Timana Tahu has ambitions of playing Origin, but that shouldn't happen under current form. Hayne wasn't his usual self last week, and Hindmarsh's tackle count is usually a little higher.
In a way, they're lucky they are playing Canberra, a team which is also coughing up too much ball and whose players are under the microscope for a sloppy workrate.
"I certainly don't want it to happen that I get picked just because of what I've done or because I've been captain for so long," Cayless was quoted as saying.
"It's a team game and you've got to make sure that everyone's playing as well as we can."
"Your form dictates where you play. I've spoken to the coach and he said 'if you play well enough you'll be in first grade'."
In short, Parra should be nice and fired up - and should win.
We thought the death of their young fan would inspire them a couple of weeks ago, but if harsh criticism from all angles, including within the club, doesn't get some energy out of under-performing players, nothing will.
Timana Tahu has ambitions of playing Origin, but that shouldn't happen under current form. Hayne wasn't his usual self last week, and Hindmarsh's tackle count is usually a little higher.
In a way, they're lucky they are playing Canberra, a team which is also coughing up too much ball and whose players are under the microscope for a sloppy workrate.
"I certainly don't want it to happen that I get picked just because of what I've done or because I've been captain for so long," Cayless was quoted as saying.
"It's a team game and you've got to make sure that everyone's playing as well as we can."
"Your form dictates where you play. I've spoken to the coach and he said 'if you play well enough you'll be in first grade'."
In short, Parra should be nice and fired up - and should win.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
NRL Sunday tips - Warriors, Manly, Canberra, Wests
All four home teams have won so far this week, including the shock result at Shark Park.
Can it continue? If form has anything to do with it, it shouldn't.
Manly travels across the ditch to take on the Warriors, and this is one of the most difficult games to pick. The Warriors are unpredictable and perhaps one of the most under-rated sides in the competition. But Manly still has something to prove. I'd expect Manly to win the battle of the halves, while out wide is a lottery. If you like Manly, take the line for value. If you like the Warriors, they're better than even money, so take that. I don't often sit on the fence, but I'm afraid I'm struggling with this one!
In the other game, Wests take their razzle dazzle to Canberra. Wests should break the trend by winning away. Canberra's ball handling has been awful of late and they're up against the best attacking side in the NRL. Take Wests to cover the line.
Any other result would be an upset.
Can it continue? If form has anything to do with it, it shouldn't.
Manly travels across the ditch to take on the Warriors, and this is one of the most difficult games to pick. The Warriors are unpredictable and perhaps one of the most under-rated sides in the competition. But Manly still has something to prove. I'd expect Manly to win the battle of the halves, while out wide is a lottery. If you like Manly, take the line for value. If you like the Warriors, they're better than even money, so take that. I don't often sit on the fence, but I'm afraid I'm struggling with this one!
In the other game, Wests take their razzle dazzle to Canberra. Wests should break the trend by winning away. Canberra's ball handling has been awful of late and they're up against the best attacking side in the NRL. Take Wests to cover the line.
Any other result would be an upset.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
NRL bet of the round North Queensland vs Gold Coast
If you're looking for value, our pick of the round would have to be the Cowboys to overcome the Titans.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
Although the Titans have had plenty of experience with Preston Campbell in the halves, it will be tough first week up. For now, the first three weeks of winning form don't mean much.
For the Cowboys, Thurston is in rare form and should run rings around the new combination for the Titans.
The forwards for mine are fairly well matched, and the Cowboys should have the edge out wide. Greg Bird is the wildcard for the Titans. If he has his best game of the year, they're a chance.
But the Cowboys to cover the +3.5 line for me.
Monday, March 22, 2010
NRL comebacks set the trend
Rugby League is fast becoming like horse racing in that it’s more common for the front runner to be overtaken at the line.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
There’s been a remarkable trend for comebacks in the NRL this year.
Call it changes to the modern game; momentum swings; any cliché you like. Regardless of the cause, it’s a definite trend.
This weekend already, the Titans chased down a seemingly impossible deficit to run down their opponents in the last couple of minutes, eventually in extra time.
The North Queensland Cowboys did it for the second week in a row, this time against the Panthers after being behind 20-8.
Those who watched the game will recall the Tigers led the Roosters 12-0 after scoring the opening two tries.
And of course there’s the talked-about comeback by Parramatta to steamroll Manly.
If it’s a trend, which it seems to be, that offers opportunity for punters.
If over two weeks, a punter had waited for one team to get a 12-point buffer on their opposition before taking “in the running” odds, they would have made a fortune.
Hindsight might be an ass, but it’s also a lesson.
At 4-1 odds or better which usually happens when one team gets a break, that means the team coming from behind only has to do it one in four occasions for punters to be ahead.
So far this season, it’s happened half the time.
And eliminate the games where neither team has orchestrated a 12-point break, and the odds tilt even further in the punter’s direction.
I wouldn’t expect it to happen all the time, but there might be something in it.
Friday, March 19, 2010
NRL St George vs Canterbury
News that Ben Hennant is homesick paints a deeper picture of the Bulldogs' state of mind.
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
They looked as though they were not ready to play last week and it's unlikely they will be able to turn that frame of mind around quickly - particularly with an unhappy camp.
If there was a buzz in the Bulldogs, it would have been unlikely that Hennant would be homesick. He's used to the Brisbane hype which surrounds football in Queensland, and a fickle Sydney crowd combined with distance from his family will have done his passion no good at all.
Sure, the Bulldogs will be playing to win. But if it's close, who will have the passion? My money will be on Wayne Bennett's troops to come out on top, and for $1.50-plus, it's a good bet for mine!
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
NRL Manly vs Parramatta specials
Parramatta will be specials this weekend against an under-manned Manly outfit. The Eels are one of the few sides who will be able to match it with the Manly forwards, but their backline spearheaded by Hayne at fullback and Tahu in the centres look likely to be too strong.
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
I spoke to Timana Tahu on Monday and he said the only thing which had changed in league while he'd been away was the intensity around the rucks. He said gang tackling was more prominent which meant it was harder to create space. With that knowledge under his belt, the Eels might do what other sides are now doing by throwing the ball further into space to open up their talented backline.
While talking to Tahu, at the forefront of his mind was an Origin guernsey, so if you think he'll be taking the foot off the pedal, you'd be horribly wrong. Let's pen in the Eels as specials this weekend, and $1.40 is fair odds in the early market.
Meanwhile, here's the latest from Sportingbet on that game:
MANLY BLOW OUT THE GATE AS STEWART'S INJURY SOURS SEASON
Manly have blown out the gate in premiership betting following the news that Brett Stewart’s injury will keep him out of action for most of the season.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Sea Eagles had blown from $13 last week to $21 and now looked a real chance of missing the eight.
“We couldn’t find a punter to back Manly before Stewart’s injury and now not even the most ardent Sea Eagles fan could back them,” Sullivan said.
“They showed last year they couldn’t win without Stewart and that could be exacerbated by the absence of an experienced half following Matt Orford’s departure.
“Manly had been as short as $7.00 in premiership markets before Orford left and this is as big a drift you will see in premiership markets after just one round.”
Sportingbet Australia have Manly $2.90 outsiders for their clash with the Eels at Parramatta Stadium on Sunday.
PARRAMATTA V MANLY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Parramatta 1.40
Manly 2.90
NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
St George Dragons 7.50
Canterbury Bulldogs 8.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Wests Tigers 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 17.00
Sydney Roosters 17.00
Manly Sea Eagles 21.00
North Qld Cowboys 23.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Newcastle Knights 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 51.00
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