I'm not usually keen on futures markets, but this one is great value. Western Australia overnight - thanks probably to commentary from Mark Waugh who said he'd placed a bet at $9 - has firmed two points to win the KFC Big Bash.
Western Australia has won only one of its three games, but has struck some bad luck with Chris Gayle's injury and other factors.
But they're a terrific side and with the Marsh brothers hitting fantastic form in their last win against Victoria and with Gayle likely to return in their next encounter, they're a real chance.
They'll have to win four games straight, but that's not beyond their well-rounded outfit.
They're still at $7 with Sportsbet, and $6.60 with Betfair, but I wouldn't expect those odds to remain intact for too long. Now's the time to get on, if only for a speculator - we'd suggest 5% of your bankroll.
On a slight tangent, it was interesting to see Queensland last night and the irony of their management policies. It's the side which couldn't buy a Sheffield Shield win in the 70s and 80s, despite some of the world's best players chipping in - Viv Richards not being the least.
Now, they're the only team in the KFC Big Bash not to have an international import. The irony is, it won't matter. They still won't win.
That said, James Hopes is terrific. I look forward to his presence in the Australian one-day team. Let's hope Watson doesn't steal his place.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
How will Darren Ferguson hold up?
Neal, quoted below, is our guest tipster this weekend. He's actively promoting new markets for Victor Chandler. And given there's no racing, all attention is being put on the football.
This is their latest release:
Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.
“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”
Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.
Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?
Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10
Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.
This is their latest release:
Victor Chandler have opened a market on whether Darren Ferguson will gain more Championship points than Alan Irvine. They make Ferguson a 4/6 chance to out score his fellow manager at Sheffield Wednesday in the remaining 23 matches of the season. Irvine is the outsider at 11/10.
“It will be interesting to see how the two men fare in the rest of the season.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “Both have 23 matches left with a total of 69 points up for grabs, and we suspect that it’ll be close.”
Preston fired Alan Irvine and replaced him with Darren Ferguson, whereas Irvine soon picked up the vacant managers position at Sheffield Wednesday, and both managers will be desperate to push their new clubs up the league.
Darren Ferguson v Alan Irvine: Who will win most Championship points?
Darren Ferguson 4/6
Alan Irvine 11/10
Points gained just from remaining 23 matches from 09/01/10 to end of season.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Magic Millions 2yo classic
And from the same bookmaker, here's the market movements for the Magic Millions 2-year-old race at the Gold Coast, Australia:
Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.
Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.
“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.
“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”
Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.
“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.
“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”
There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00
Unbeaten Queensland filly Military Rose is set to challenge the John O‘Shea trained Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the Magic Millions classic according to Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan who reported a mountain of money arriving for her.
Sullivan said Military Rose seemed to be the pick of big punters nationwide and had shortened from $7.50 to $5.50 on the back of some big bets this week.
“She is clearly the one the punters want to be on and why not given her unbeaten record from three starts ,” Sullivan said.
“We took a bet of $6000 at $5.50 on Friday afternoon and that was after we had already taken a series of bets of around $2000 and $3000.
“The way the money is coming, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if she challenged Ambers Waltz for favouritism in the lead up to the race.”
Sullivan said Amber’s Waltz retained favouritism after running an unlucky second at her last start in Sydney.
“We did take a bet of $10,000 on Amber’s Waltz but that has really been the extent of the support for her,” Sullivan said.
“She was unlucky last start but she probably had her chance over the final 200m and didn’t really let down, so I am keen to take her on if she remains these odds.”
There has also been good money for Brightexpectations ($13 into $10), while Startsmeup was well supported on all-on markets at odds as big as $126.
MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Amber’s Waltz 4.40
Military Rose 5.50
Spirit Of Boom 6.50
Brightexpectations 10.00
Marking Time 11.00
Demanding Miss 11.00
Triple Crown 13.00
Startsmeup 14.00
Red Belly Black 18.00
Ringa Ringa Rosie 21.00
Extreme Mover 21.00
Ebony Rock 31.00
Wandering Star 31.00
Mundi Gully 51.00
Jantzen 61.00
Cuddles For Naara 61.00
Tough Luck 61.00
Tricarico 101.00
Paris Blu 101.00
Mr De Lago 101.00
Power Of Ed 101.00
Love Conquers All is Magic Millions favourite
Following is a statement from Sportingbet Australia with the latest market movements for the Magic Millions on the Gold Coast, Sydney, Australia, this weekend:
The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.
“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.
“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”
Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.
“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.
MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00
The Hawkes trained Love Conquers All has clearly been the best backed runner for the Magic Millions 3YO Trophy shortening from $5 to $4.20 at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the last start Sydney winner was the only horse punters had been interested in backing in the last 24 hours.
“They have jumped out of trees to back him since he drew perfectly and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him start even shorter,” Sullivan said.
“We are taking more bets on him than the rest of the field combined with bets of $10,000 and $5000 among a string of four figure bets placed on him.”
Sullivan said the only other horse to come in for support so far was Deer Valley who had shortened from $7.00 to $6.50 at Sportingbet.
“We took one bet of $60,000 to $10,000 on Deer Valley after being luckless last start,” Sullivan said.
MAGIC MILLIONS 3YO TROPHY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Love Conquers All 4.20
Shoot Out 5.50
Graceful Anna 6.00
Deer Valley 6.50
Choistar 11.00
Latin News 14.00
Temple Of Boom 17.00
Doubtful Jack 17.00
Tallow 21.00
Princess Qualo 31.00
Fast Lover 31.00
Knot Out 41.00
Spot On Target 51.00
Captain Sonador 51.00
Fantastic Blue 51.00
Ourkohinoor 51.00
Emma’s Heart 61.00
Femina Fashion 61.00
Moonlight Hussey 101.00
Surf’s Up 101.00
Double Heart 126.00
How we work our bankroll
Friday guest tipping is up and running again, so I thought it might be worth a quick refresher about how we manage our bankroll, particularly if you want to follow us.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
We can't promise the same results, but last year we managed to triple our bankroll via a conservative and very simplified betting strategy, which works like this:
* If I think it's a good thing, I'll bet 20% of my bankroll.
* If I think it's a reasonable bet, yet over even money odds, I'll bet 10% of the bankroll.
* If it's a speculator, I'll throw on 5% of the bankroll.
Most punters will tell you it's all about percentages. Bookies work on percentages, and we'll work on the theory that we need to outsmart about 20% of the money being held in the bookies' coffers.
Don't forget to check out Neal's tips in the article below this one ... hopefully he'll get us off to a good start for 2010.
Free Friday Guest Tipster is Neal Wilkins
It was minus 5 degrees from where Neal Wilkins gave me a call earlier this week.
Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.
For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.
Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.
Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.
Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.
Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.
As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.
We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)
And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.
Good luck!
* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.
Neal regularly appears on Sky channels in the UK, along with Racing UK, and has a wealth of contacts in the racing industry there having been on the racecourse for more than 40 years.
For the past 10 years he has been PR manager for international bookmakers Victor Chandler which means he's well across all sports.
Given that there's no racing, his tips will be confined to the football. To make it a bit more exciting for us, he's concentrated on the televised games.
Tip 1: It's top versus bottom in Saturday's 12.45pm (UK time) kick off when Chelsea look sure to justify odds of 4/11 against struggling Hull who are on offer at 7/1 with Victor Chandler despite enjoying home advantage.
Tip 2: On Sunday I believe West Ham will build on their spirited Cup performance against Arsenal last Sunday and reward backers at 4/5 in their home match to Wolves who have only scored 8 goals on their travels this season.
Tip 3: Finally, the draw at 5/2 looks the call when Liverpool entertain a resurgent Spurs at An field. Liverpool have been far from convincing this season and look vulnerable at set pieces.
As we did last year, we'll be taking our guest tips in full faith. But given it's the first week of the year, and that we cashed out for Christmas, we'll start from scratch with a token $100 account.
We'll all up 10% on Neal's first two tips, Chelsea into West Ham. That would return about 3/2 ($2.50)
And we'll put 10% on the draw at An field.
Good luck!
* Please note, this site is designed for entertainment purposes. Check the gambling laws in your state or country before placing bets of any kind. And bet only what you can afford to lose.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Mike Phelan seems set to take over at Burnley FC
When the market was first opened by Victor Chandler on Tuesday, I said it would be nice to have some inside information.
Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.
Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:
Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Given the odds movement over the past 24 hours, it seems somebody does, as Mike Phelan has firmed considerably to be employed full time at Burnley FC.
Here's the latest from Victory Chandler:
Victor Chandler have seen significant money for Mike Phelan to be the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Phelan, was available at 10/1 before being backed into 5/1 and is now just 2/1 to take reins at Turf Moor. Hibernian Manager, John Hughes, has also seen significant interest and has been trimmed from 20/1 to current price 8/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “Nearly a;; of the money is coming for Sir Alex’s right-hand man. Usually when that happens there’s a good reason and it seems unlikely it’s based solely on Phelan’s playing history at Burnley! ”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 2/1
Steve Coppell 7/2
Steve Davis 4/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
John Hughes 8/1
Alan Curbishley 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 10/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 12/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Free tips from Neal Wilkins this Friday
This Friday we start up our "Friday Guest Tipster" column again. Last year, guest tipsters helped build our bankroll with a conservative strategy by 300%.
Let's hope we can do that in 2010.
Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.
He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.
Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.
Let's hope we can do that in 2010.
Good news is that I just received a call from Neal Wilkins who represents Gibraltar-based betting agency Victor Chandler.
He'll be sending us tips for weekend UK football games.
Look out for them. They'll be published here on Friday.
Australian contender title favourite is Kariz Kariuki
For non-Australian readers, this is a reality boxing show aired on pay television. Boxers were in a knockout-style competition and the final will be aired live on Monday night. The winner gets some money and a pro bout.
While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:
Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.
“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.
“He has to start favourite on that alone.”
Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.
“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.
“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”
AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70
While Kariuki should win, my interest lies with the way Sportingbet sits nicely on the fence in the statement released today:
Kariz Kariuki is a $1.25 favourite to defeat Garth Wood on Monday night’s Contender Final.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Kariuki’s experience had to be respected.
“Katiuki has a significant edge in experience and with the class of fighter’s he’s taken on,” said Sullivan.
“He has to start favourite on that alone.”
Sullivan said $3.70 outsider Wood should not be totally dismissed by punters.
“Wood has done a sensational job in making this final with only twenty-two rounds of boxing under his belt,” Sullivan said.
“But his best chance has to be an early knockout with Kariuki’s fitness likely to be telling the closer this fight gets to seven rounds.”
AUSTRALIAN CONTENDER - FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Kariz Kariuki 1.25
Garth Wood 3.70
Mike Phelan and Steve Coppell favourites for Burnley job
I wish I had some inside information, but this new market will be of interest to English football fans:
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Victor Chandler have opened betting on who will replace Owen Coyle as the next permanent manager of Burnley FC.
Manchester United assistant manager, Mike Phelan, and former Reading boss, Steve Coppell, are joint favourites at 5/1 with Darren Ferguson and Alan Curbishley both 6/1.
Victor Chandler spokesman Neal Wilkins commented “It’s still something of a surprise that Coyle has chosen to leave Burnley and the in-coming manager at Turf Moor will have a tough act to follow. We make United assistant Mike Phelan our favourite. Losing his assistant would be unlikely to improve Sir Alex Ferguson’s mood so soon after the FA Cup loss to Leeds though.”
Next Permanent Burnley Manager
Mike Phelan 5/1
Steve Coppell 5/1
Alan Curbushley 6/1
Darren Ferguson 6/1
Paul Jewell 7/1
Steve Davis 8/1
Sean O’Driscoll 9/1
Brian Laws 12/1
Dave Jones 16/1
Alan Irvine 14/1
Gareth Southgate 18/1
Billy Davies 20/1
George Burley 25/1
Monday, January 4, 2010
Betting in the run
Traditionally, we've been taught to bet before the contest begins.
Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.
Is it worth it?
The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.
Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.
Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.
It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.
Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.
In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.
Now, however, and largely due to competition among sportsbooks, we have the opportunity to bet when the contest is in progress.
Is it worth it?
The answer is not a simple one. Like most things, it depends.
Let's say we think Team A is a good chance against Team B at 4/1. It's great odds in a two-player race. Your team is evidently the underdog.
Do you put your hard-earned cash at risk immediately, or do you wait to see how things are going.
It's all in the timing. Sportsbooks work on turnover. They hold money for each team and space the odds accordingly. Quite often, your underdog team will get into a commanding position, for argument's sake, a quarter into the game.
Now you're feeling better about your chances, but the odds are still better than even money. That's because the sportsbook is holding considerably more money for the favourite.
In my opinion, this has made betting in the run a wiser bet. Others might disagree, so let's open the line for debate.
Betting tip: Know your opposition
How often do you see odds posted as a result of media hype and/or parochial influence.
For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.
You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.
But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.
Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.
This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.
Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?
Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.
Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.
Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.
In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.
For example, the New York Yankees are always considered a good bet. The media constantly talks up their chances, whether it be because of the money they've spent on top-line players, or the simple fact that they've got a terrific public relations machine.
You've read all the hype and you believe it. You might have even seen that there are some stars.
But have you scanned the opposition? Players might not be as well known. They might not have representative honours, or have been regularly in the news. But their figures stack up. They have high batting averages, and good clinch results.
Statistics say the opposition, albeit without the media attention, is an even money chance of winning the contest.
This is where we're a great chance of taking some good odds. Let's put it simply: If it's a 50/50 contest and we're getting better than even money, we're ahead.
Or I can ask it this way: If I gave you 3/1 on a coin flip, you'd take it every time, right?
Past real-life examples in football have been any team which features David Beckham. He's a great player, but there are 10 others on his side. And his side hasn't always stacked up against quality opposition. But odds inevitably favour the side whose star has been featured heavily in the media.
Look out for similar examples, and you're often ahead of the bookies.
Look out in particular for opportunities in multi-player contests. There might be 10 starters. One is catching all the media attention. But others have equally good results. Place your bet on the inflated odds of the so-placed underdog.
In motor racing, Valentino Rossi might win one in three races. He's rarely at greater than 3/1 odds. Take the time to know the opposition, their previous performances on the given track, and recent form, and you're in with a terrific chance of converting some good odds.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Was Soderling a good bet against Federer?
Well done to anyone who took the $3.65 on offer for Robin Soderling to beat Roger Federer in Abu Dhabi.
But I still question whether it was a good bet.
Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.
But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).
You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."
But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.
Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.
Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.
Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.
If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html
But I still question whether it was a good bet.
Federer had beaten Soderling in 12 previous encounters. And granted, eventually, the Swede was bound to have a win, particularly given his recent terrific form which saw him march into the world's top 10.
But odds on Roger Federer of $1.28 was a message from bookmakers that Federer would win one out of four encounters between the two. Taking into account that Soderling was yet to break his drought, the odds should have been somewhere in the $1.10 mark which means Federer was massive overs (in percentage terms).
You can always find rationale to back the underdog. Soderling had beaten Nadal in their previous two encounters. Soderling's form was much better than previous meetings between the two. Maybe you can throw in the old chestnut: "He was due."
But none of those are a good reason to risk money on the Swede. They are, however, good reasons to avoid the match altogether.
Good sports betting is about playing the odds. And it's always wise to find occasions where the sportsbook odds calculators are taking a gamble. In other words, it's about finding "overs" - situations where the odds are greater than the chances of our pick winning the contest.
Take the Pakistan cricket team against Australia for example. They started the Sydney test match against Australia at $6.50. If you think Pakistan are good enough to beat Australia at least one in six test matches, then you'd be getting overs.
Anyone who took the $6.50, that was a smart bet, and you deserve the rewards.
If you want to know more about playing the percentages, check out the system being used by the team at winterolympicsformguide.com. You can find it here: http://aussiepunt.blogspot.com/2009/12/free-sports-betting-strategy-and.html
Friday, January 1, 2010
New Year's Resolutions
We don't usually follow the crowd, but it's probably timely to let you know what Aussiepunt has in store for 2010:
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
1. Although based in Australia, it is our mission to cover global sports, and this year there will be plenty. The Winter Olympics kicks off in February and our collaboration with www.winterolympicsformguide.com promises to be a terrific one. Then comes the Soccer World Cup. The Commonwealth Games might not interest our North American friends, but where there's an opportunity to find a winner, that's where our main interest lies.
2. More form guides: One of our most well read types of article in 2009 was the form guides we produced for certain events, some of them a little obscure such as the World Series of Poker final table. We'll be looking at ways to keep bringing these to you free of charge. While other sites are for fun, we insist we're here for the fun of it.
3. Celebrity Tipster Friday: We had plenty of success thanks to help from our celebrity tipsters in 2009. Your bankroll, if you followed our punting advice, would have trebled in two months! And while that died off a little towards the end of the year, we'll be endeavouring to bring some of the world's leading punters to the hot seat every Friday, starting with some English Premier League tips next week.
4. News: We're on the media lists of the world's leading bookmakers and sportsbooks. When they've got something to say, we'll let you know.
5. Theories, advice and tips: We're not always right with our betting strategy, but we like to think we're more right than most. Whatever the synopsis, at least we've got the courage to air it for all to see.
6. Keep up to date: If you want up-to-the-minute updates from our blog, follow us at Twitter @globalpunt ... at last count, about 1600 people already were.
7. Free site: We don't charge for any of our information. And we like to be open about what we do. The only way we make money is from the occasional referral to betfair or other reputable sportsbook (see the ads at the right of the page), or the few cents we get if you click on one of the Google ads on this page. For about $1 a day, it's hardly a living, but it's subtle motivation. Well, we did say we did it for the love of it.
8. Interaction: Please, if you've got something to say or share, don't hesitate to add it to the site. We're open to criticism, and we love a chat.
With that promise (you might call it a new year's resolution of sorts), Aussiepunt wishes all readers a happy and prosperous 2010 - we'll certainly be doing our best to help you keep it that way!
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Computer withdrawal symptoms
It's been a long time since I've been without computer access for a week, and I'm getting severe withdrawals.
Apologies to regular readers of this blog for not updating over the past week, but I'll be back on the air in the new year, at which time we'll have plenty of Winter Olympics tips, soccer, horse racing, the list goes on ... if they compete and there's odds on it, we'll be talking about it.
Until then, happy new year to all.
Apologies to regular readers of this blog for not updating over the past week, but I'll be back on the air in the new year, at which time we'll have plenty of Winter Olympics tips, soccer, horse racing, the list goes on ... if they compete and there's odds on it, we'll be talking about it.
Until then, happy new year to all.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Winter Olympics 2010 downhill form guide
I've managed to get a bit of a Christmas present from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com. I can't get all the detailed form information, but the synopsis might help when you're trying to pick winners from the World Cup races happening fairly much each weekend leading up to the Vancouver Games.
And the event is the Men's Downhill, which kicks off on the opening day of competition at the Winter Olympics.
The Downhill is pure speed, a race against the clock to the bottom of a defined course.
In many ways, it is the most raw of all Winter Olympic events, at least those on skis.
It is also one of the most dangerous as skiers clock massive speeds. The danger is no better typified by the horrific crash which left Swiss skier Daniel Albrecht in a coma for three weeks with brain and lung injuries.
Albrecht’s story also typifies the courage of these athletes, for he not only survived, but he has vowed to return to the sport, perhaps in 2011.
In an effort to push the limits of their potential, most skiers have crashed out at some point. Already this season, world champion John Kucera has been eliminated from the Winter Olympics after breaking his leg. It's a big blow to the competition, but an even bigger blow to the Canadians who would have ranked him as one of their Gold Medal hopes.
This, however, is the Winter Olympics. All will be doing what they can to win a medal, ultimately gold.
Hundredths of a second can regularly determine placings in Downhill, as it can for most alpine events. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for the better skiers to put in a conservative first run. Rather, they’ll likely be giving it their all from the outset.
When it comes to picking a winner, that makes any selection a bit of a lottery. However, we’ll look for performance indicators which improve our chances and push the percentages in our favour.
The FIS will release its final rankings on January 18, which will allow us to assess the final field. But, based on 2009 rankings and performances in World Cup, European Cup and other FIS races, we’ll have an early look at the top chances.
Not only will that give us a good indication of who might figure in the medals in Vancouver, it will give us a clear view of who to keep an eye on in the two months leading up to the premier event as skiers vie for world champion status.
Manuel Osborne-Paradis (Canada)
Keep an eye on this man – very closely. He’s a Downhill specialist with some interest in the Super G. Ranked 5th in the world, the Canadian speedster will not only have local screaming and cow bells on his side, he’ll have plenty of local knowledge. As a member of Whistler Mountain Ski Club, the 25-year-old will have an appreciation of the course like no other competitor, with an ability to match. Watch the market but we’ll be tipping him early as one of the favourites to win the event. And with Kucera out, the expectation grows even more.
Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)
The Norwegian turns 27 in December and is in the prime of his career, at the beginning of 2009 crowned overall alpine world champion. He also tops the rankings in Super-G and will no doubt be a threat at the Vancouver Olympics in that discipline, the downhill and the giant slalom. He’s one of the few skiiers in with a realistic chance of multiple medals in the alpine events.
Michael Walchhofer (Austria)
At 34, Walchhofer is one of the veterans of the strong Austrian team, but he is also one of the fastest. In peak condition, this man is true speed and will no doubt be right in the hunt when it comes medal time in the Downhill and Super-G events. Walchhofer is ranked first in the world in Downhill and has some consistent performances. Ignore the 12th place at the World Championships. But we do need to be mindful that his last World Cup victory was in December 2008. If you want a good sighter in Vancouver, this is one of your leading men.
Carlo Janka (Switzerland)
At 23, Janka is the golden boy of the Swiss team and will likely compete in all disciplines. At the World Championships in France in February, he placed first in the Giant Slalom, finishing 0.7 seconds ahead of his nearest rival. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s a sport where hundredths of a second can separate the top few, as happened with the Downhill at the same event where Janka finished third, 0.17 behind the gold medal winner. Already a proven big-race performer and likely only to improve when it comes to February, expect him to be well in the mix in the Downhill event. Ignore some ordinary late-season World Cup finishes to focus on current form, a third at the World Championships and a second in Canada in November 2008.
Didier Cuche (Switzerland)
This guy is likely to start one of the three top favourites for the Downhill and rightly so. At 35, Cuche is a veteran of the sport, but is still going strong as the world’s third ranked all-round alpine skiier. Cuche was in 2007 and 2008 ranked the world’s top Downhill skiier and is unlikely to be outside the top 5 when competitors head through the gates for their gold medal run. It won’t take much for him to recapture form which made him one of the most feared competitors on the planet. His proven record under pressure make him one of the most solid bets of the alpine racing agenda, albeit no certainty to pick up the gold. And his early 2010 form has been absolutely fantastic, of the highest order in the sport. He'll probably be a 3-star pick in our book.
Werner Heel (Italy)
The 27-year-old Italian speedster will likely start one of the favourites for the Super-G. His grace and strength is of the highest ilk and he’s beaten all-comers. Despite being without a World Cup win in the Downhill, he could find himself on the podium if it all comes together for him in Vancouver. He will, however, have to make up a couple of seconds on the quality field, which he might have done during off-season training. Heel is definitely one to follow in the World Cup events before the Olympics.
Klaus Kroell (Austria)
Consistent top 10 finishes in World Cup Downhill competitions see him ranked second in the world for the event. Kroell’s two wins early this year on the World Cup circuit – one in Downhill and the other in Super G – showed that he is a skiier now to be respected. At 29, he is entering his prime at the right time for the Olympics and might be one of the Austrians to shine in Vancouver. We’ll have an eye on his lead-up performances to see how he’s tracking. One of the problems facing all Austrian skiiers is selection, but his timely form might see him nudging for a medal.
Didier Defago (Switzerland)
Defago has an overall world ranking of 6th, having broken into the top 10 off the back of solid performances in two disciplines – the Downhill and Super-G in 2009. Speed is the essence for the all-rounder. At 32, it is remarkable that the Swiss skiier was only last year able to attain a career-high ranking after almost 14 years on the world circuit. This is likely to be his last Olympics and his form indicates he could spring an upset – or at least a medal. He’ll certainly be hungry enough, and with eight Olympic starts already, and 191 World Cup appearances, he might prove to be one of the great tales of the Vancouver Games. Late-season form in March was ordinary, but don’t overlook back-to-back World Cup victories in January – the only skier on the circuit to achieve the feat.
Romed Baumann (Austria)
We’ve included Baumann in the Downhill form guide purely because of his age. At 23, he is better performed in Super Combined and Giant Slalom. But with consistent top 20 finishes in the Downhill, it is worth keeping an eye on his form leading up to the Olympics.
Christof Innerhofer (Italy)
Innerhofer is an accomplished all-rounder and Italy’s best chance of a medal. He carries plenty of speed in the Downhill, and will no doubt pressure the leaders in other events as well. At 25, and in comparison to many of his opponents, Innerhofer is relatively inexperienced with only 50+ World Cup starts and in his first Olympics. But he is a rising star and this might be his opportunity to put his mark firmly on the international scene. Being young and fast, his biggest let-down might be volatility. But at an Olympics, going for broke is a good thing. An example is in December 2008 when Innerhofer had two disastrous Downhill finishes in Beaver Creek and Val Gardena-Groeden, before blitzing the slopes in front of his home Bormio crowd to take home a World Cup victory. He’s one to keep on the radar.
Peter Fill (Italy)
Fill is ranked one position above Innerhofer in the overall world standings, and performances indicate they are very close in their ability to medal. Fill is much more experienced than his countryman, and already has a Winter Olympics under his belt which could serve him well in Vancouver. But it’s difficult to see him able to put in the explosive speed required to hit the Downhill podium.
Erik Guay (Canada)
Guay is built for speed, and speed alone. There’ll be none of that twisting and turning nonsense for one of Canada’s great medal hopes. Rest assured, when he’s flying down the slopes, the cow bells will be ringing at their absolute loudest. At 28, he’s had one Olympc start in 2006, and one World Cup victory since. He’s ranked 6th in the world in Downhill. Expect a performance of great heart in front of his home crowd.
Bode Miller (USA)
Along with Hermann Maier, Miller is by far the greatest skiier of recent times. If he overcomes injuries to race, he’ll show versatility like no other on the American team. Miller was world champion by a long way in 2005 and 2008, and clearly in the top 4 since 2002. If fit, he’s a threat in any of the Alpine disciplines. With two silver medals at the 2002 Games, he’d love to add gold to the list, particularly in the twilight of his career. Miller, if there are any doubters about his extraordinary career at elite level, has 31 World Cup victories to his name. He also has 67 podium finishes. He is truly an amazing athlete. We’ll be monitoring his fitness leading up to Vancouver. It could have a huge bearing on who starts favourite for each of the alpine events.
Benjamin Raich (Austria)
Raich might be regarded one of the best all-round skiers in the world, but it would be unlikely for him to medal in the Downhill, probably his weakest discipline. It is most likely, as happened in the World Championships, that he will skip the event to focus on his strongest events. But a great skier is a great skier and it would be reminisce of us not to keep an eye on his World Cup performances in the next couple of months.
Others to watch:
Hans Olssen (Sweden)
The 25-year-old Swede is rising fast in the world Downhill rankings. In his last two starts, he finished less than 6 seconds behind the leader in his home country, at Are, in March, to finish 3rd, and fourth in Norway four days previously. His off-season preparation will determine whether he’s worth seriously watching leading up to the Olympics.
Ambrosi Hoffmann (Switzerland)
The 32-year-old builder knows what it’s like to win a medal, having picked up the bronze in Super-G at the 2006 Games. He trains for speed and with a third and fourth in consecutive World Cup starts in January, is one worth keeping an eye on. He will be one of the more experienced competitors in the field with more than 190 World Cup starts.
Marco Buechel (Liechtenstein)
If Marco Buechel decides to give the Olympics one final tilt, he will almost certainly be one of the oldest competitors in the field. That will make him one of the most experienced, and having been ranked second in the world in Downhill in 2007, and fourth in 2006, he must be respected. He was fourth in this year’s world championships in the Downhill, his best performance for the season. But that just proves that he can be a big-time competitor and might just find himself on the podium if all comes together in Vancouver.
Marco Sullivan (USA)
Sullivan’s late-season form in 2009 was far from awe-inspiring, but he’s proven he can mix it with the best, having finished third in Wengen, Switzerland, in a World Cup Downhill event, and fourth in Italy in December 2008. He’s won FIS races but will need to be at his absolute best to upset more favoured athletes.
Andrej Jerman (Slovenia)
“Jerry”, as he’s known on the circuit, is 31 and has finished on the World Cup podium three times. His best 2009 finish was 4th in a World Cup event in Norway in January. He’s unlikely to be in the medals but will be worth watching in lead-up events.
Adrien Theaux (France)
Theaux is another rising star. At 25, he’s yet to finish on the podium in a world-class event, but form would suggest his first is not far away. It’s unlikely to be at the Olympics, but a couple of top 10 finishes on the circuit towards the end of last season make him worth watching.
Robbie Dixon (Canada)
Dixon is another local hope and has knowledge of the slopes, being based at the Whistler Mountain Ski Club. His form might not be much to write home about, but with a 5th and 7th in Norway against a world class field, the 24-year-old might just be on the rise at the right time. Those two performances saw him sneak into the world’s top 20 rankings for the event for the first time.
And the event is the Men's Downhill, which kicks off on the opening day of competition at the Winter Olympics.
The Downhill is pure speed, a race against the clock to the bottom of a defined course.
In many ways, it is the most raw of all Winter Olympic events, at least those on skis.
It is also one of the most dangerous as skiers clock massive speeds. The danger is no better typified by the horrific crash which left Swiss skier Daniel Albrecht in a coma for three weeks with brain and lung injuries.
Albrecht’s story also typifies the courage of these athletes, for he not only survived, but he has vowed to return to the sport, perhaps in 2011.
In an effort to push the limits of their potential, most skiers have crashed out at some point. Already this season, world champion John Kucera has been eliminated from the Winter Olympics after breaking his leg. It's a big blow to the competition, but an even bigger blow to the Canadians who would have ranked him as one of their Gold Medal hopes.
This, however, is the Winter Olympics. All will be doing what they can to win a medal, ultimately gold.
Hundredths of a second can regularly determine placings in Downhill, as it can for most alpine events. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for the better skiers to put in a conservative first run. Rather, they’ll likely be giving it their all from the outset.
When it comes to picking a winner, that makes any selection a bit of a lottery. However, we’ll look for performance indicators which improve our chances and push the percentages in our favour.
The FIS will release its final rankings on January 18, which will allow us to assess the final field. But, based on 2009 rankings and performances in World Cup, European Cup and other FIS races, we’ll have an early look at the top chances.
Not only will that give us a good indication of who might figure in the medals in Vancouver, it will give us a clear view of who to keep an eye on in the two months leading up to the premier event as skiers vie for world champion status.
Manuel Osborne-Paradis (Canada)
Keep an eye on this man – very closely. He’s a Downhill specialist with some interest in the Super G. Ranked 5th in the world, the Canadian speedster will not only have local screaming and cow bells on his side, he’ll have plenty of local knowledge. As a member of Whistler Mountain Ski Club, the 25-year-old will have an appreciation of the course like no other competitor, with an ability to match. Watch the market but we’ll be tipping him early as one of the favourites to win the event. And with Kucera out, the expectation grows even more.
Aksel Lund Svindal (Norway)
The Norwegian turns 27 in December and is in the prime of his career, at the beginning of 2009 crowned overall alpine world champion. He also tops the rankings in Super-G and will no doubt be a threat at the Vancouver Olympics in that discipline, the downhill and the giant slalom. He’s one of the few skiiers in with a realistic chance of multiple medals in the alpine events.
Michael Walchhofer (Austria)
At 34, Walchhofer is one of the veterans of the strong Austrian team, but he is also one of the fastest. In peak condition, this man is true speed and will no doubt be right in the hunt when it comes medal time in the Downhill and Super-G events. Walchhofer is ranked first in the world in Downhill and has some consistent performances. Ignore the 12th place at the World Championships. But we do need to be mindful that his last World Cup victory was in December 2008. If you want a good sighter in Vancouver, this is one of your leading men.
Carlo Janka (Switzerland)
At 23, Janka is the golden boy of the Swiss team and will likely compete in all disciplines. At the World Championships in France in February, he placed first in the Giant Slalom, finishing 0.7 seconds ahead of his nearest rival. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s a sport where hundredths of a second can separate the top few, as happened with the Downhill at the same event where Janka finished third, 0.17 behind the gold medal winner. Already a proven big-race performer and likely only to improve when it comes to February, expect him to be well in the mix in the Downhill event. Ignore some ordinary late-season World Cup finishes to focus on current form, a third at the World Championships and a second in Canada in November 2008.
Didier Cuche (Switzerland)
This guy is likely to start one of the three top favourites for the Downhill and rightly so. At 35, Cuche is a veteran of the sport, but is still going strong as the world’s third ranked all-round alpine skiier. Cuche was in 2007 and 2008 ranked the world’s top Downhill skiier and is unlikely to be outside the top 5 when competitors head through the gates for their gold medal run. It won’t take much for him to recapture form which made him one of the most feared competitors on the planet. His proven record under pressure make him one of the most solid bets of the alpine racing agenda, albeit no certainty to pick up the gold. And his early 2010 form has been absolutely fantastic, of the highest order in the sport. He'll probably be a 3-star pick in our book.
Werner Heel (Italy)
The 27-year-old Italian speedster will likely start one of the favourites for the Super-G. His grace and strength is of the highest ilk and he’s beaten all-comers. Despite being without a World Cup win in the Downhill, he could find himself on the podium if it all comes together for him in Vancouver. He will, however, have to make up a couple of seconds on the quality field, which he might have done during off-season training. Heel is definitely one to follow in the World Cup events before the Olympics.
Klaus Kroell (Austria)
Consistent top 10 finishes in World Cup Downhill competitions see him ranked second in the world for the event. Kroell’s two wins early this year on the World Cup circuit – one in Downhill and the other in Super G – showed that he is a skiier now to be respected. At 29, he is entering his prime at the right time for the Olympics and might be one of the Austrians to shine in Vancouver. We’ll have an eye on his lead-up performances to see how he’s tracking. One of the problems facing all Austrian skiiers is selection, but his timely form might see him nudging for a medal.
Didier Defago (Switzerland)
Defago has an overall world ranking of 6th, having broken into the top 10 off the back of solid performances in two disciplines – the Downhill and Super-G in 2009. Speed is the essence for the all-rounder. At 32, it is remarkable that the Swiss skiier was only last year able to attain a career-high ranking after almost 14 years on the world circuit. This is likely to be his last Olympics and his form indicates he could spring an upset – or at least a medal. He’ll certainly be hungry enough, and with eight Olympic starts already, and 191 World Cup appearances, he might prove to be one of the great tales of the Vancouver Games. Late-season form in March was ordinary, but don’t overlook back-to-back World Cup victories in January – the only skier on the circuit to achieve the feat.
Romed Baumann (Austria)
We’ve included Baumann in the Downhill form guide purely because of his age. At 23, he is better performed in Super Combined and Giant Slalom. But with consistent top 20 finishes in the Downhill, it is worth keeping an eye on his form leading up to the Olympics.
Christof Innerhofer (Italy)
Innerhofer is an accomplished all-rounder and Italy’s best chance of a medal. He carries plenty of speed in the Downhill, and will no doubt pressure the leaders in other events as well. At 25, and in comparison to many of his opponents, Innerhofer is relatively inexperienced with only 50+ World Cup starts and in his first Olympics. But he is a rising star and this might be his opportunity to put his mark firmly on the international scene. Being young and fast, his biggest let-down might be volatility. But at an Olympics, going for broke is a good thing. An example is in December 2008 when Innerhofer had two disastrous Downhill finishes in Beaver Creek and Val Gardena-Groeden, before blitzing the slopes in front of his home Bormio crowd to take home a World Cup victory. He’s one to keep on the radar.
Peter Fill (Italy)
Fill is ranked one position above Innerhofer in the overall world standings, and performances indicate they are very close in their ability to medal. Fill is much more experienced than his countryman, and already has a Winter Olympics under his belt which could serve him well in Vancouver. But it’s difficult to see him able to put in the explosive speed required to hit the Downhill podium.
Erik Guay (Canada)
Guay is built for speed, and speed alone. There’ll be none of that twisting and turning nonsense for one of Canada’s great medal hopes. Rest assured, when he’s flying down the slopes, the cow bells will be ringing at their absolute loudest. At 28, he’s had one Olympc start in 2006, and one World Cup victory since. He’s ranked 6th in the world in Downhill. Expect a performance of great heart in front of his home crowd.
Bode Miller (USA)
Along with Hermann Maier, Miller is by far the greatest skiier of recent times. If he overcomes injuries to race, he’ll show versatility like no other on the American team. Miller was world champion by a long way in 2005 and 2008, and clearly in the top 4 since 2002. If fit, he’s a threat in any of the Alpine disciplines. With two silver medals at the 2002 Games, he’d love to add gold to the list, particularly in the twilight of his career. Miller, if there are any doubters about his extraordinary career at elite level, has 31 World Cup victories to his name. He also has 67 podium finishes. He is truly an amazing athlete. We’ll be monitoring his fitness leading up to Vancouver. It could have a huge bearing on who starts favourite for each of the alpine events.
Benjamin Raich (Austria)
Raich might be regarded one of the best all-round skiers in the world, but it would be unlikely for him to medal in the Downhill, probably his weakest discipline. It is most likely, as happened in the World Championships, that he will skip the event to focus on his strongest events. But a great skier is a great skier and it would be reminisce of us not to keep an eye on his World Cup performances in the next couple of months.
Others to watch:
Hans Olssen (Sweden)
The 25-year-old Swede is rising fast in the world Downhill rankings. In his last two starts, he finished less than 6 seconds behind the leader in his home country, at Are, in March, to finish 3rd, and fourth in Norway four days previously. His off-season preparation will determine whether he’s worth seriously watching leading up to the Olympics.
Ambrosi Hoffmann (Switzerland)
The 32-year-old builder knows what it’s like to win a medal, having picked up the bronze in Super-G at the 2006 Games. He trains for speed and with a third and fourth in consecutive World Cup starts in January, is one worth keeping an eye on. He will be one of the more experienced competitors in the field with more than 190 World Cup starts.
Marco Buechel (Liechtenstein)
If Marco Buechel decides to give the Olympics one final tilt, he will almost certainly be one of the oldest competitors in the field. That will make him one of the most experienced, and having been ranked second in the world in Downhill in 2007, and fourth in 2006, he must be respected. He was fourth in this year’s world championships in the Downhill, his best performance for the season. But that just proves that he can be a big-time competitor and might just find himself on the podium if all comes together in Vancouver.
Marco Sullivan (USA)
Sullivan’s late-season form in 2009 was far from awe-inspiring, but he’s proven he can mix it with the best, having finished third in Wengen, Switzerland, in a World Cup Downhill event, and fourth in Italy in December 2008. He’s won FIS races but will need to be at his absolute best to upset more favoured athletes.
Andrej Jerman (Slovenia)
“Jerry”, as he’s known on the circuit, is 31 and has finished on the World Cup podium three times. His best 2009 finish was 4th in a World Cup event in Norway in January. He’s unlikely to be in the medals but will be worth watching in lead-up events.
Adrien Theaux (France)
Theaux is another rising star. At 25, he’s yet to finish on the podium in a world-class event, but form would suggest his first is not far away. It’s unlikely to be at the Olympics, but a couple of top 10 finishes on the circuit towards the end of last season make him worth watching.
Robbie Dixon (Canada)
Dixon is another local hope and has knowledge of the slopes, being based at the Whistler Mountain Ski Club. His form might not be much to write home about, but with a 5th and 7th in Norway against a world class field, the 24-year-old might just be on the rise at the right time. Those two performances saw him sneak into the world’s top 20 rankings for the event for the first time.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Congratulations Miss Gibraltar
I thought I'd share one of the more unusual press releases I've received from bookmakers recently. Victor Chandler moved to Gibraltar, so why not rally his own!
And if anybody took the 250-1, can you let me know?
Victor Chandler offered his congratulations to newly crowned Miss World, Kaiane Aldorino.
The Gibraltar based bookmaker, who changed the online gaming industry forever when he moved from London to Gibraltar 10 years ago, said that the winner had been subject to a large number of bets from local residents.
Victor Chandler, Chairman, commented “The rules only recently changed to allow Gibraltar residents to bet with me, but a lot of local residents are glad they did!
Kaiane was initially a 250/1 outsider, and was still rated 14/1 sixth favourite on Friday, and whilst no residents were on at 250/1 many backed Kaiane at 14/1, and I am genuinely pleased to pay them all.
I am thrilled both for Kaiane and for the whole of Gibraltar.”
And if anybody took the 250-1, can you let me know?
Victor Chandler offered his congratulations to newly crowned Miss World, Kaiane Aldorino.
The Gibraltar based bookmaker, who changed the online gaming industry forever when he moved from London to Gibraltar 10 years ago, said that the winner had been subject to a large number of bets from local residents.
Victor Chandler, Chairman, commented “The rules only recently changed to allow Gibraltar residents to bet with me, but a lot of local residents are glad they did!
Kaiane was initially a 250/1 outsider, and was still rated 14/1 sixth favourite on Friday, and whilst no residents were on at 250/1 many backed Kaiane at 14/1, and I am genuinely pleased to pay them all.
I am thrilled both for Kaiane and for the whole of Gibraltar.”
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Hong Kong sprint horse racing
I've got some money sitting on Scenic Blast. We'll see how she goes!
This comes from Sportingbet:
All Silent has been backed into outright favourite for the Hong Kong Sprint after a string of big bets were placed on the Graeme Begg trained gelding at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said All Silent had been backed from $5.50 to $4.60 this week and he is now a clear favourite ahead of Sacred Kingdom at $5.00.
“All Silent has clearly been the best backed horse this week with bets of $10,000, $5000 and $4000 struck in the past 24 hours,” Sullivan said.
“His form before leaving Australia was dominant and punters are backing him to reproduce it in Hong Kong which would see him take a power of beating.”
Sullivan said there had also been good support for West Australian galloper Scenic Blast while Apache Cat had been a little easy.
“Scenic Blast has been backed from $7.00 to $6.00 this week as well with one bet of $10,000 struck on him as well,” he said.
“Apache Cat has been $8.00 out to $9.50 at this stage but he does have a cult following and I would expect to see support come for him before the race.”
All Silent is also an even money favourite in Sportingbet’s best of the Aussies market ahead of Scenic Blast at $3.00 and Apache Cat at $3.70.
“All Silent has been the only one punters have wanted in that market and he has also been very well supported in the head to heads against the other two where is obviously a clear favourite,” Sullivan said.
HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 4.60
Sacred Kingdom 5.00
Scenic Blast 6.00
Apache Cat 9.50
California Flag 10.00
Cannonball 17.00
Total Gallery 18.00
Inspiration 18.00
Laurel Guerreiro 18.00
War Artist 19.00
Borderlescott 26.00
Green Birdie 34.00
One World 41.00
Joy And Fun 51.00
This comes from Sportingbet:
All Silent has been backed into outright favourite for the Hong Kong Sprint after a string of big bets were placed on the Graeme Begg trained gelding at Sportingbet Australia.
Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said All Silent had been backed from $5.50 to $4.60 this week and he is now a clear favourite ahead of Sacred Kingdom at $5.00.
“All Silent has clearly been the best backed horse this week with bets of $10,000, $5000 and $4000 struck in the past 24 hours,” Sullivan said.
“His form before leaving Australia was dominant and punters are backing him to reproduce it in Hong Kong which would see him take a power of beating.”
Sullivan said there had also been good support for West Australian galloper Scenic Blast while Apache Cat had been a little easy.
“Scenic Blast has been backed from $7.00 to $6.00 this week as well with one bet of $10,000 struck on him as well,” he said.
“Apache Cat has been $8.00 out to $9.50 at this stage but he does have a cult following and I would expect to see support come for him before the race.”
All Silent is also an even money favourite in Sportingbet’s best of the Aussies market ahead of Scenic Blast at $3.00 and Apache Cat at $3.70.
“All Silent has been the only one punters have wanted in that market and he has also been very well supported in the head to heads against the other two where is obviously a clear favourite,” Sullivan said.
HONG KONG INTERNATIONAL SPRINT
Sportingbet Australia Market
All Silent 4.60
Sacred Kingdom 5.00
Scenic Blast 6.00
Apache Cat 9.50
California Flag 10.00
Cannonball 17.00
Total Gallery 18.00
Inspiration 18.00
Laurel Guerreiro 18.00
War Artist 19.00
Borderlescott 26.00
Green Birdie 34.00
One World 41.00
Joy And Fun 51.00
Free sports betting strategy and winning advice
Here's a free copy this sports pick wagering and betting system from the team at www.winterolympicsformguide.com.
Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.
It's worth a read:
Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.
Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.
The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.
Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.
2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.
So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.
The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.
Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.
As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".
For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.
In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!
5 Stars:
If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.
4 Stars:
If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!
3 Stars:
If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.
2 Stars:
If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.
1 Star:
These are competitors we recommend you avoid.
Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.
Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.
Good luck, and bring on the Games!
Obviously, the blurb below is tailored for the Winter Olympics 2010. But I like it so much I think I might start using it on this blog. What do you think? There's a little bit of advertising rubbish mixed in to promote the site, but you can ignore that.
It's worth a read:
Welcome to a broad explanation of our special 5-star betting strategy.
Being mathematically challenged, it doesn't take too many numbers to confuse me, so I like to keep it simple, and that's what this strategy is - simple and easy to understand.
The beauty of it is it also allows you to make up your own mind. If you read the form and want to put some money on a long shot, go right ahead.
Key recommendations
1. Never deposit a bankroll for more than you can lose. Here at Winter Olympics Form Guide, we have formed partnerships with reputable bookmakers. However, we have refused to take accept affiliate deals. There's a principle behind that decision, an ethically-based decision which says we don't want to be put in a position where we're encouraging members to bet more than they can afford. We want people to be enjoying the Winter Olympics, not crying in their morning wheeties with what Gamblers Anonymous calls a gambling hangover. In essence, you're paying for a service. We want to provide that to the best of our ability, without false incentives causing us to unfairly over-play our hand.
2. Never bet more than 20% of your bankroll on any given outcome. Any bet can lose. Over time, however, statistics are usually what out-guns the bookies. By betting a percentage of our bankroll each time we play, we're still giving ourselves the opportunity to grow our bankroll, but we're also giving ourselves the opportunity to fight another day.
So, we're laying our cards firmly on the table by saying we're not commission-driven. That's why you're paying for this service. We're here to work for you - us versus the bookmakers, or in the case of Betfair, us versus anyone else who wants to take us on.
The second of the two fundamental rules also prevents us from making the number 1 mistake made by many gamblers - it stops us from chasing. One loss can have many doubling up. We shouldn't need to do that to make a profit.
Now, with the formalities out of the way, the 5-star system is quite simple. While it might seem there's a little bit of mathematics involved, it certainly doesn't stretch into the realms of rocket science. And what you see won't be very complicated at all.
As any good punter knows, we should always be trying to give our selection odds - even before we've seen those of the bookie. This allows us to see whether we're getting what those in the business call "unders" or "overs".
For example, if we think Canada should be a 2/3 ($1.50) chance against the USA in an ice hockey battle, and the sportsbook operators are paying 5/4 ($1.25), we would be getting "unders" - under the odds, or less than we think we should be getting on that team. To place that bet would be a bad bet because we're not playing the odds to our advantage. We're wasting our ability to pick winners. If, however, the bookmakers were paying 7/4 ($1.75), we'd gladly place the bet because we would be getting "overs". In other words, we think Canada is a quarter of a point better chance than the bookies do.
In essence, what we'll be doing is giving our selections a rating, from 1-5 stars. And before we continue, in more than a two-horse race (or people or teams as the case is with the Winter Olympics), we rarely recommend anyone take odds of less than 1/2 on ($1.50 for a $1 investment). There is often too much to lose and too little to gain. Take it from a punter who's tried the "sure thing" route on a number of occasions, it's too easy to get seriously hurt!
5 Stars:
If this selection is more than 1/2 ($1.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 20% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This is as close as we'll come to a sure thing. We're very confident this selection will win. For example, one of the shortest prices of the Winter Olympics is likely to be Korean figure skater Yu-Na Kim. We'll place 5 stars beside her name. For argument's sake, let's say the bookmakers are paying 3/5 ($1.60 for a $1 investment), and you have a $100 bankroll, place a $20 bet on her to win the event. If she wins, we have a $32 return on our investment, our bankroll increases 12% and we're in a good position to move onto the next event.
4 Stars:
If this selection is more than 3/2 ($2.50) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a bet equalling 10% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This will likely be one of the favoured runners who we believe has an even money chance of winning the event. Sportsbook operators work on percentages, too, but they're working on the percentage of bets outlayed on all runners in the field. Due to our form analysis, we will have eliminated most of the field from our calculations. It doesn't mean we're right, it just means we've increased our chances of winning. For poker players, if I'm dealt two Aces, and the player opposite me bets all his chips with two Queens, I will always, without fail, call the bet. I am the best chance to win the hand. We need to play the percentages. For example, let's say Lindsey Vonn wins about half of her World Cup races in the Super G during the two months leading up to the Olympics. We can consider her an even money chance to win the event. If the sportsbooks have her at 3/2 ($2.50), we're getting "overs" and we're happy to place the bet. So, again, if your bankroll is $100, lay a $10 bet. If Vonn wins, we'd have returned $25 and our bankroll will have grown 15%. Nice job team!
3 Stars:
If this selection is more than 5/1 ($6) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend a speculator bet equalling 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: The Men's Downhill is a very open event. While there are probably more than 10 skiers who could realistically win, there are 5 with form suggesting they are the ones most likely to win. If we think we've found the one MOST likely, we'll put 3 stars beside their name. For example, let's stick with the Men's Downhill. We think there are 5 terrific chances, but we think local Canadian hope Manuel Osborne-Paradis has the best chance. We therefore give him 3 stars. If the sportsbooks have him at, let's be optimistic and say 7-1 ($8), we're getting "overs" and again, If your bankroll is $100, lay a $5 bet. If Osborne-Paradis skis his legs off to win, we pick up a very nice $40 return on investment.
2 Stars:
If this selection is more than 12-1 ($13) with the sportsbook operators, we recommend you consider a small speculator, purely for "value". The size of the bet is your decision, but it should never be more than 5% of your bankroll.
Explanation: This rating is for those selections we think are paying handsome "overs". We might, for example, think that Italian Werner Heel's two World Cup wins in terrific time last season warrant him a 1 in 10 chance or better to win the Super G. But sportsbooks have him at 25/1 (and last time I looked, that's what he was paying). Percentages suggest we're getting way over the odds as we see it. In this case, Heel is a great "value" bet. If he loses, we haven't lost much. If he wins, we collect bit time.
1 Star:
These are competitors we recommend you avoid.
Explanation: At times, we might see a competitor we believe to be paying "unders", or less than we think they're worth. Let's go back to one of our earlier selections, Lindsey Vonn in the Super G. Under the hypothetical scenario above, we've listed her an even money chance to win the event. But sportsbook operators have her at 3/4 ($1.75). In this case, we'll put one star beside her name. We might even have tipped her to win in our selections, but we think the risk is too large to place an investment in the outcome. In other words, the sportsbooks have this selection over-rated.
Of course, we can't tell you what to do with your money. Even if you alter the guidelines, the 5-star strategy is a great way of determining a level of confidence in each pick. Ultimately, you're calling the shots. But you're doing it in an envronment we consider to be the best way to enhance the enjoyment of sport without breaking the bank balance. In face, we believe it's the best way to grow your bank balance.
Good luck, and bring on the Games!
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Why are England's World Cup soccer odds so short ?
I can't say I totally understand the logic behind the way the market has panned out for the World Cup in South Africa 2010.
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
England has firmed from $7 to $6.50 following a cosy draw - something which in effect guarantees them a place in the final 16. Perhaps the first round match too is easier than most.
But head to head against Spain, Brazil, Argentina and perhaps Italy and Germany, I wonder who would start favourite. Remember, these odds are about who will win the final, not who will cruise through the early rounds.
And I'm not great at maths, but let's do a quick calculation: Hypothetically, let's say England starts $1.40 favourite in the round of 16; $1.60 favourite in the quarter finals; $1.90 in the semis and $2 in the final. An all up bet on that result would equal about $8.50, much greater than the $6.50 odds now offered.
England is just one example. The same could be said for most of the favourites' odds. Simply put, there's much better value in match betting than futures betting.
Aussiepunt's recommendation: Save your money for the head to head clashes.
Odds:
Spain 5.50
Brazil 6.00
England 6.50
Argentina 10.00
Italy 11.00
Germany 13.00
Holland 13.00
France 15.00
Portugal 26.00
Ivory Coast 26.00
Chile 51.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Cameroon 81.00
Greece 81.00
USA 81.00
Denmark 101.00
Mexico 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Australia 101.00
South Africa 101.00
Others 201.00 Plus
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