Daily sports news and tips

Masterchef latest odds

2010-07-21T11:49:00.001+10:00

Despite industry predictions of Sunday night’s Masterchef Final attracting in excess of 4 million viewers Sportingbet Australia punters are convinced that less than 3.5 million viewers will tune in.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said less than 3.5 million viewers had been backed in from $10 to $7 and was clearly the most popular option.

“While anything just less than 3.5 million would be a huge ratings success you’d have to think the shows’ producers would be slightly disappointed given the 3.7 million last year’s final attracted,” said Sullivan.

“But there’s been a good deal of bets saying this will be the case and the money is usually on the mark.”

The Masterchef Final has already shunted Sunday’s Election Debate out of the prime 7.30pm spot and the show has consistently attracted over 2 million viewers in its normal weekday format.

HOW MANY VIEWRS WILL WATCH MASTERCHEF SERIES 2 FINAL
Sportingbet Australia Exclusive Market
3.91 Million To 4 Million 5.50
5.1 Million or More 6.00
3.81 Million to 3.9 Million 6.00
4.1 Million to 4.2 Million 7.00
Less Than 3.5 Million 7.00
4.21 Million to 4.3 Million 7.50
4.31 Million To 4.4 Million 8.50
4.41 Million to 4.5 Million 9.00
3.71 Million To 3.8 Million 9.00
4.91 Million to 5 Million 10.00
4.61 Million to 4.7 Million 11.00
4.51 Million to 4.6 Million 11.00
3.5 Million to 3.6 Million 11.00
3.61 Million to 3.7 Million 12.00
4.71 Million to 4.8 Million 14.00
4.81 Million to 4.9 Million 17.00

Damn those Gold Coast Titans rumours

2010-06-30T10:02:00.002+10:00

Then comes Four Corners or some other current affairs silhouette-type cloak and dagger interview, and off we go again!

WOODEN SPOON MARKET REOPENED WITH TITANS AT $21

Sportingbet Australia has reopened their wooden spoon market with the Gold Coast Titans as $21 chances after the NRL informed them there was no current investigation regarding the salary cap.

Sportingbet suspended betting on the wooden spoon yesterday morning after a flurry of bets came for the Titans as soon as the market was opened.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the NRL’s statement came after Sportingbet had reported the transactions but as they had clearly stated there was no investigation underway, he was completely confident in reposting the market.

“The market back is up now for punters to bet on with the Titans still at $21, “ Sullivan said.

“I am sure if yesterday morning is any indication we will be taking plenty of bets on them but we have full confidence in the market now given the NRL’s statement.

“We had no choice but to suspend the market yesterday morning given the unprecedented run of bets for a side currently sitting fourth.”

Sportingbet Australia currently has the Cowboys as $3.00 favourites for the Spoon, without Melbourne Storm in the betting, ahead of Cronulla at $4.00 and the Knights at $5.00.

NRL – WOODEN SPOON
Sportingbet Australia Market
North Qld Cowboys 3.00
Cronulla Sharks 4.00
Newcastle Knights 5.00
Canberra Raiders 6.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 11.00
New Zealand Warriors 15.00
Sydney Roosters 21.00
Parramatta Eels 21.00
Gold Coast Titans 21.00
Brisbane Broncos 34.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 34.00
Wests Tigers 51.00
Penrith Panthers 51.00
Manly Sea Eagles 51.00
St George Dragons 51.00

Roy Hodgson favourite for Liverpool FC manager job

2010-06-29T21:30:00.004+10:00

One for Premier League fans. If anyone gets the heads up, let us know.

The imminent departure of Fulham manager Roy Hodgson to Liverpool later this week has left a vacancy to fill at Craven Cottage, and bookies Victor Chandler had made Alan Curbishley the 5/2 favourite to bag the position. But that was before he was backed this morning and the firm now are as short as 5/4.

“It didn’t take long for the 5/2 to be snapped up, and we had to take evasive action.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “We felt he’d be the favourite to get the job, but we didn’t know how short to be. It seems the 5/2 might be a decent price now.”

There were strong rumours about Sven Goran Eriksson taking over at Craven Cottage, and the firm make him the third favourite at 6/1. Mark Hughes is sandwiched between them at 4/1. Other names in the hat include Glenn Hoddle, Slaven Bilic and Manuel Pelligrini. The job will appeal to many managers as Hodgson has built a terrific platform for the future and Fulham’s future looks reasonably bright.

“The one dilemma I suppose for potential managers is that Roy Hodgson will be a hard act to follow, and some might sit this one out.” added Wilkins.

Next Permanent Fulham Manager
Alan Curbishley 5/4
Mark Hughes 4/1
Sven Goran Eriksson 6/1
Glenn Hoddle 8/1
Slaven Bilic 8/1
Manuel Pelligrini 9/1
Gareth Southgate 11/1
Dave Jones 14/1
Paulo Sousa 14/1
Kevin Keegan 16/1
Steve McClaren 16/1
Phil Scolari 16/1
Stuart Pearce 18/1
Tony Mowbray 18/1
Marcelo Lippi 20/1
Martin Jol 22/1
Sean O'Driscoll 25/1
Paul Jewell 25/1
Paul Ince 25/1
Otto Rehhagel 25/1
Gerard Houllier 25/1
Paul Le Guen 40/1

Gold Coast Titans rumours spark betting plunge

2010-06-29T12:26:00.002+10:00

Whether it's a rumour or not, the rugby league administration is a joke. That's about all I can say.

NRL: BETS ON TITANS SUSPENDS SPOON BETTING

Sportingbet Australia suspended betting on their new Wooden Spoon market this morning after a series of bets were taken on the fourth placed Gold Coast Titans.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the market, which excluded the pointless Melbourne Storm, was up for less than five minutes when three bets were struck on the Titans.

“This is very similar to what led us to suspend Spoon betting initially when we saw bets come for Melbourne although we reacted a lot faster this time to suspend betting,” Sullivan said.

“We had the Titans in the market at $21 and I can’t see punters wanting to take that price for the fourth placed side unless they thought they knew something.

“The bets we took were only to win a few thousand but the fact they came on top of each so soon after we put the market up, meant we had to suspend immediately as punters were trying to get onto win a lot more.’

Sportingbet currently has the Titans as $17 chances for the Premiership.

Esther Anderson gets Dancing with the Stars early vote

2010-06-29T12:11:00.002+10:00

I liked Wirra myself, but what would I know?

Home and Away star Esther Anderson is Sportingbet Australia’s $3.00 favourite to win series ten of Dancing with the Stars following Sunday night’s first show.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Anderson showed enough talent on the dance floor to say her soapie fans would not be disappointed.

“Esther Anderson looked fairly natural on the dance floor and this coupled with her fan base makes her favourite,” said Sullivan.

Sullivan said Anderson was closely followed by Blair McDonough ($4.50), Tamara Jaber ($4.50) and Rob Palmer ($6.00).

“McDonough was very good and looms as an early dark horse while Palmer was personality plus even if he did dance like a carpenter,” Sullivan said.

“Tamara Jaber was clearly the best dancer on the night and if the show was won purely on dance ability would be an odds on favourite.

“But her husband, Kyle Sandilands, is such a ‘love him ‘or ‘hate him’ character that it makes it hard to judge the effect on her public vote “

Meanwhile, there’s a strong AFL flavour in the elimination market with David Wirrpanda and Alex Fevola favourites to be drop punted from the show.

“Wirrpanda may have won Goal of the Year a few seasons back with his left foot but he unfortunately had two of them on the dance floor,” said Sullivan.

“Alex Fevola looked as pretty as a picture but obviously suffered badly from nerves.”

DWTS - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Esther Anderson 3.00
Blair McDonough 4.50
Tamara Jaber 4.50
Rob Palmer 6.50
Rachel Finch 8.00
George Houvardas 9.00
Melinda Schneider 9.00
Jason Stevens 12.00
Jo Beth Taylor 14.00
Alex Fevola 17.00
David Wirrpanda 21.00

DWTS – ELIMINATION 4 JULY

Sportingbet Australia Market

David Wirrpanda 2.25

Alex Fevola 2.75

Jo Beth Taylor 5.50

Jason Stevens 8.00

Melinda Schneider 8.00

Rachael Finch 10.00

George Houvardas 12.00

Tamara Jaber 12.00

Rob Palmer 17.00

Blair McDonough 17.00

Esther Anderson 21.00

August 28 election likely

2010-06-29T11:46:00.004+10:00

If the government is talking about an August election, which they are, it August 21 and August 28 must be the most likely dates. But that doesn't necessarily mean that that's what's going to happen. When they sit down and realise they haven't finalised pre-selection for a number of seats, they might realise that September 4 would be a far better date.

There will be a few superstitious types who'll worry about the "Crash"-type headlines if it was to be September 11. The only other realistic result is that the August call is a bluff, which means a date after November 27 is the next best bet.

Australia will be heading to the polls on August 28 according to punters betting at Sportingbet Australia with the date backed into ruling favourite at $2.75.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters had zeroed in on dates in August but all the big money had been for the 28th.

“We have taken a number of good bets which has seen the 28th shorten from $3.50 to $2.75 in the past twenty four hours,” Sullivan said.

“Julia Gillard’s promotion to PM has certainly seen the polls move in Labor’s favour and punters are convinced that will lead to an early election.

“If the mining tax negotiations are well received, I think it looks a certainty we will be heading to the polls by the end of August.”

Labor continues to firm to win the election with Gillard as leader, shortening from $1.55 when Kevin Rudd was leader to $1.40 currently with Sportingbet.

“The money has all been one way since Julia Gillard became Prime Minister with punters very confident she can beat Tony Abbott,” Sullivan said.

“This is in complete contrast to when Rudd was leader when all the money was for Abbott but his odds have now blown out to $2.85 after being as short as $2.40 last Wednesday.”

Federal Election Date
Sportingbet Australia market
Saturday, July 31 2010 $26.00
Saturday, August 7 2010 $13.00
Saturday, August 14 2010 $13.00
Saturday, August 21 2010 $7.50
Saturday, August 28 2010 $2.75
Saturday, September 4 2010 $6.00
Saturday, September 11 2010 $10.00
Saturday, September 18 2010 $13.00
Saturday, September 25 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 2 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 9 2010 $21.00
Saturday, October 16 2010 $13.00
Saturday, October 23 2010 $13.00
Saturday, October 30 2010 $17.00
Saturday, November 6 2010 $17.00
Saturday, November 13 2010 $21.00
Saturday, November 20 2010 $21.00
Saturday, November 27 2010 $34.00
Any Date after November 27, 2010 $6.50

Brisbane Broncos no longer under the radar

2010-06-29T09:16:00.002+10:00

I've been saying it for a while now. With a fully fit side, which should be the case for the finals, the Broncos are an excellent unit: Yow Yeh, Folau, Hodges and Kemp is a backline we haven't seen for a while. Add that to Tronc who has returned, Parker, Lockyer, Wallace etc etc and they'll match it with anyone. A very good bet.

NRL: RESURGENT BRONCOS HORROR RESULT FOR BOOKIES

Six-time premiers Brisbane have bookmakers more than a little nervous after punters climbed on board at $67 several weeks ago when they looked more likely to be wooden spoon contenders than grand finalists.

But the Broncos are now into $8 third picks at Sportingbet Australia with their CEO Michael Sullivan saying they are by far his worst result with one client set to collect $268,000 should they go all the way.

“We took one bet of $264,000 to $4000 on them in April and we have laid them at every price on the way in,” Sullivan said.

“We took a bet of $55,000 to $5000 before Brisbane beat Parramatta on Saturday and we've slashed their quote to $8.00.

“They are our worst result for the Premiership by a long way.”

St George are the raging $3.25 favourites at Sportingbet and Sullivan said there looked to be only a few challengers capable of upsetting a drought breaking Premiership for the Dragons in October.

“The Dragons look a level above everyone else and if it wasn’t St George we were talking about, you'd almost declare them,” he said.

“The Panthers are second favourites at $5.50 and look short enough and then you go to the Broncos at $8.00 with Manly and Parramatta, sides some way off top form, both at $8.50.”

2010 NRL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
St George Dragons 3.25
Penrith Panthers 5.50
Brisbane Broncos 8.00
Manly Sea Eagles 8.50
Parramatta Eels 8.50
South Sydney Rabbitohs 9.00
Wests Tigers 13.00
Gold Coast Titans 17.00
Sydney Roosters 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
New Zealand Warriors 51.00
Newcastle Knights 51.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 67.00
Cronulla Sharks 101.00
North Qld Cowboys 101.00

Penrith was a good bet

2010-06-29T09:08:00.001+10:00

Punting is always a game of "should haves", "could haves", "might haves", "ifs" and "maybes". That said, it's always nice to see a punter who is on a good thing. For this person's sake, I say "Carn the Panthers".

Penrith have been the surprise packet of the NRL season and it has at least one punter smiling after he backed them to win everything but the Leagues club chook raffle pre season.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Panthers had been well backed to win the Premiership, the Minor Premiership and to make the top four at big odds pre season.

“We laid bets of $55,000 to $2500 at $23 for both the Premiership and Minor Premiership and a bet of $50,000 to $12,500 for them to make the top four,” Sullivan said.

“They are now sitting second on the ladder and we have slashed their odds to $5.50 for the Premiership and they look a genuine threat.

“They have been a real surprise packet to me but obviously this punter saw something most of us didn’t as he could potentially collect well over $150,000.

“Their current quote of $5.50 looks to be short enough to me but the way they are playing, they are one of only a few genuine Premiership hopes.”

St George are the current $3.25 favourites at Sportingbet ahead of the Panthers at $5.50 and the resurgent Broncos at $8.00.

2010 NRL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
St George Dragons 3.25
Penrith Panthers 5.50
Brisbane Broncos 8.00
Manly Sea Eagles 8.50
Parramatta Eels 8.50
South Sydney Rabbitohs 9.00
Wests Tigers 13.00
Gold Coast Titans 17.00
Sydney Roosters 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
New Zealand Warriors 51.00
Newcastle Knights 51.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 67.00
Cronulla Sharks 101.00
North Qld Cowboys 101.00

England to cry against Germany

2010-06-24T19:43:00.002+10:00

If the English team is half passionate, then the 25-1 on shedding tears on the pitch is great value for mine. First, they'd have to lose. Second, they'd have to care that they lost. Pretty good odds, I'd think, unless of course there's some small print I haven't seen.

Victor Chandler make it a 9/4 chance that Fabio Capello picks the same starting line up against Germany that he did against Slovenia.

“There is a worry that Wayne Rooney’s injury could rule him out of contention” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “But the rumours suggest it doesn’t seem serious. Another issue is whether Matthew Upson retains his place over Jamie Carragher after an impressive display, and of course, there is every chance that Capello throws in a curve ball with a team selection we are not expecting.”

Joe Cole is 7/4 to start against Germany, a bigger price than he was to start against Slovenia.

Cole incurred the wrath of Fabio Capello in the latter stages of the Slovenia match when he gave away possession instead of playing keep ball, and this might have a bearing on Capello’s decision. The firm also make it a 25/1 chance that an England player sheds tears on the pitch during the game as Gazza did in 1990.

“It’s unlikely to happen, but it’ll be a highly charged atmosphere on Sunday so we could see a few sniffles from someone.” Wilkins added.

England starting line-up same as Slovenia…….9/4
Joe Cole to start 7/4
Not to start 2/5

England player shedding tears on pitch 25/1

Wimbledon's longest match ... how long will it last?

2010-06-24T12:46:00.002+10:00

You'd have to think that as players return to the court fresh, that under 123 games would be the go, but these guys have already defied the odds. They've done some remarkable stuff.

WIMBLEDON MARATHON - HOW LONG CAN ONE MATCH LAST?

John Isner and Nicolas Mahut will enter the 11th hour of their first round match at Wimbledon tonight and Sportingbet Australia have posted a market on how much longer the marathon clash will last.

The match is already a world record with the fifth and final set locked at 59 all and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were backing the game to keep going for some time yet.

“We have posted a market on how much further the record will be extended and punters are backing Isner and Mahut to go over 123.5,” Sullivan said.

“You would think both players would have to be completely knackered and a result may come quickly but both players have an enormous serve so a break will be hard to come by as obviously has been the case so far.

“It’s incredible to watch a game of tennis that has the scoreboard unable to keep track with the number of games played.”

Sportingbet has Isner as a slight favourite at $1.87 to finally win the match with Mahut as the $1.95 outsider.

John Isner v Nicolas Mahut - Total Games
Sportingbet Australia Market
Over 123.5 Games $1.87
Under 123.5 Games $1.93

John Isner v Nicolas Mahut - Winner

Sportingbet Australia Market

John Isner $1.87

Nicolas Mahut $1.95

Bookie says fair's fair for unlucky Socceroos punters

2010-06-24T09:50:00.001+10:00

Online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au has pledged to refund bets on the Socceroos after their heroic performance against Serbia left them just short of progressing in the tournament.

The bookie will refund more than $50,000 in bets on the Socceroos to qualify for the Round of 16 and to win the World Cup.

“The Socceroos were heroic and have been very unlucky, so we think it’s only fair we refund punters who have placed their hard-earned on them,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“The lads put in a great effort today against Serbia but were cruelled by dubious red cards earlier in the tournament.”

The Socceroos are short-priced favourites at $1.25 to qualify for the 2014 World Cup, and are $151 to hold the trophy aloft in Brazil.

Socceroos to qualify for 2014 World Cup
$1.25 Yes, the Socceroos will qualify for the 2014 World Cup
$3.75 No, the Socceroos will not qualify for the 2014 World Cup

$151 Socceroos to win the 2014 World Cup

Labor firms with news of Julia Gillard as first woman PM

2010-06-24T09:44:00.001+10:00

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan reported a series of big bets on Labor at $1.70 shortly after Gillard’s intention to challenge became public.

“We took one bet of $10,000 and three of $5000 as Labor shortened from $1.70 to $1.55 late last night,” Sullivan said.

“We shortened Labor up further to $1.50 this morning following the confirmation that Gillard would lead them to the election.

“There is no doubt Kevin Rudd was on the nose with the electorate and Gillard has the chance to improve Labor’s standing in the polls almost immediately.”

Sullivan said Labor had been as short as $1.15 for the election in November last year but had blown out dramatically as Rudd’s popularity dwindled.

“We hadn’t seen any money at all for Labor in the past couple of months and it was only when punters realised that Gillard would be leader that the money rolled in,” Sullivan said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Labor shorten up even further particularly if Gillard enjoys a similar honeymoon period to Rudd or Tony Abbott.”

Australian Federal Election
Sportingbet Australia market
Labor 1.50
Coalition 2.50

Michael Barlow the Brownlow bolter

2010-06-23T13:32:00.002+10:00

There will be a few people sitting around, saying quite simply: "Wish I'd got him at 1000-1!"

BARLOW POISED TO CAUSE BIGGEST BROWNLOW SHOCK OF ALL TIME

First season player Michael Barlow continues to be the surprise packet of the season with the Docker now into third pick at $11 for the Brownlow Medal at Sportingbet Australia.

Barlow wasn’t even in Sportingbet’s Brownlow market before the season but punters have been knocking down the door to back him since round two.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said a first season player winning the Brownlow would be up there with the greatest shocks he had seen in his years as a bookie.

“He would have been at least $1001 before the season but to be truthful we hadn’t even heard of him,” Sullivan said.

“After round two we put him in the market at $151 and punters have been knocking each other over to get on.

“He was $15 last week and after another brilliant game on the weekend, we have seen plenty of smart money come for him again this week and we have had to shorten him up again.

“He is only behind Gary Ablett and Luke Hodge in our market and ahead of blokes like Brendon Goddard, Chris Judd, Dane Swan and Jimmy Bartel.

“A first year player winning the Brownlow would be up there with the greatest upsets I can think of but he looks a genuine chance.”

Ablett retains favouritism in Sportingbet’s market at $4.00 ahead of Hodge at $9.00 and Barlow at $11.

2010 Brownlow Medal
Sportingbet Australia Market
Gary Ablett [GEEL] 4.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 9.00
Michael Barlow [FREM] 11.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 12.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 15.00
Chris Judd [CARL] 15.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 17.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 17.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 21.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 21.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 34.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 34.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 34.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 41.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 51.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 51.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus

Anyone a Masterchef expert?

2010-06-22T11:52:00.002+10:00

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the State of Origin achieved around 3.8 million viewers. Given that the non-league playing states - ie, Victoria, SA and WA - will take an interest in Masterchef, you'd have to think the number would be slightly higher.

There's a reason the bookies have bunched together the figures between 4.5 and 5 million. Get it right, and the odds are enticing.

WILL THE MASTERCHEF FINAL RATE THROUGH THE ROOF?

Sportingbet Australia has opened betting on how the Masterchef Finale will rate in 2010.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the market allowed punters keen to bet on Masterchef’s outcome an alternative as its ratings success had created tremendous speculation.

“We’ve had plenty of punters asking us to bet on the outcome of this show but its pre recorded nature makes this impossible,” said Sullivan

“With Masterchef’s ratings success causing plenty of discussion we thought odds on the final’s ratings would make a good alternative.

Last year 3.7 million Australian’s watched the series one final and with series two ratings going through the roof, several pundits have predicted the final could break the five million viewer mark, so it will be interesting to see which option the punters come for.”

Sportingbet Australia bookmakers are predicting the final will rate between 3.91 and 4 million viewers, installing that option as a $5.50 favourite.

HOW WILL THE MASTERCHEF FINAL RATE?
Sportingbet Australia Market
3.91 Million To 4 Milllion 5.50
3.81 Million to 3.9 Million 6.00
5.1 Million or More 6.00
4.1 Million to 4.2 Million 7.00
4.21 Million to 4.3 Million 7.50
4.31 Million To 4.4 Million 8.50
4.41 Million to 4.5 Million 9.00
3.71 Million To 3.8 Million 9.00
Less Than 3.5 Million 10.00
4.51 Million to 4.6 Million 11.00
4.61 Million to 4.7 Million 11.00
4.71 Million to 4.8 Million 12.00
4.81 Million to 4.9 Million 12.00
4.91 Million to 5 Million 13.00
3.61 Million to 3.7 Million 14.00
3.5 Million to 3.6 Million 17.00

World Cup novelty bets for England

2010-06-22T11:25:00.002+10:00

Here are some novelty bets on England's next World Cup game. They're interesting, if not overly enticing!

COLE, ROONEY AND TERRY SPECIAL WITH VICTOR CHANDLER
As the tension mounts in the lead up to the England v Slovenia match, Victor Chandler have opened a market on Joe Cole being England’s hero on Wednesday. The firm go 16/1 that Joe Cole starts the match, scores a goal and then bags the FIFA Man of the Match award.

“The English public has made it quite clear that they would like to see Joe Cole in the line up.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “And let’s face it England need a hero at the moment and Joe could be the man.”

VC also have a number of markets which might interest those who feel that England will struggle to qualify on Wednesday afternoon. They make it a 20/1 chance that any England players square up in an on-field bust up and 4/1 that a player shows dissent to Fabio Capello when he is substituted. It’s a 5/1 shot that John Terry gets substituted and 11/4 that Wayne Rooney returns to the bench.

Any England players to have an on-field bust up with one another 20/1

Any England player to show dissent when substituted 4/1

Joe Cole to start, score and win FIFA Man of the Match 16/1

John Terry to be substituted against Slovenia 5/1

Wayne Rooney to be substituted against Slovenia 11/4

Harry Kewell bet a nice stunt

2010-06-22T10:57:00.003+10:00

The World Cup is a competitive market, so bookmakers look for every edge they can to get their name in lights. To frame a market on whether Harry Kewell will play in four years time is nothing short of a stunt - granted, a good one, but a stunt nevertheless. Who in their right mind will put hard-earned on a $1.05 future bet.

I have a friend who often says: "Better than bank interest" when he wins a bet on a short-priced favourite. He wouldn't be saying it on this occasion!

KEWELL LONG ODDS TO PLAY IN NEXT WORLD CUP

Leading online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au rates Harry Kewell only an outside chance to play in the 2014 World Cup.

The bookie has priced Kewell at $8 to play in Brazil, while only offering $1.05 on Harry not to play.

“Harry would be almost 36 before the next World Cup and his body has to stand up to another four tough years of football,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Let’s hope all the planets align and we can go deep into this World Cup because it would be a shame for Harry to bow out after a dubious red card decision.

“It seems unlikely he’ll be there in four years time but as Aussies we’d love to be proven wrong.”

In other World Cup betting news, Australia are rated a $4 chance to beat Serbia, but are paying $11 to make it past the group stage.

Brazil and Argentina have been the best backed teams to win the World Cup, while one punter clearly has a crystal ball as he placed $10 on Portugal to win 7-0 against North Korea overnight at the odds of $401 for a $4,000 win!

All markets courtesy of sportsbet.com.au
Will Harry Kewell play in the 2014 World Cup?
$8.00 Harry Kewell to play in the 2014 World Cup
$1.05 Harry Kewell not to play in the 2014 World Cup

Australia vs Serbia
$4.00 Australia
$3.75 Draw
$1.83 Serbia
$11 Australia to make the Round of 16

2010 World Cup Winner
$5 Brazil
$5.50 Argentina
$5.50 Spain
$9 Holland
$11 Germany
$11 England
$21 Italy
$23 Portugal
$751 Australia

$1001 New Zealand

Coalition firms further as polls indicate victory

2010-06-22T10:46:00.004+10:00

If you're keen on the Coalition to win the next election, and many now are, now would be the time to get on. Only one warning, however: Never underestimate the power of incumbency.

ELECTION: COALITION BACKED TO TAKE OUT NEARLY $100,000

A string of big bets has been placed on Tony Abbott to be Australia’s next Prime Minister with the Coalition shortening from $2.75 to $2.40 in the past week at Sportingbet Australia.

The Coalition has been backed to take out nearly $100,000 at Sportingbet in the past month and CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been next to no money for Kevin Rudd and Labor during the same period.

“We took one bet of $15,000 at $2.60 on the Coalition as well as multiple bets of $5000 and a huge amount of smaller bets,” Sullivan said.

“There is only one side punters want to back and at this rate it might not be too long before Tony Abbott is favourite to move into the Lodge.

“We can’t write a bet on Labor and they have drifted out to $1.55 after being as short as $1.15 in November last year.

“I can’t see us writing a decent bet on them until they start to turn things around.”

Australian Federal Election
Sportingbet Australia market
Labor 1.55
Coalition 2.40

Compare World Cup odds before betting

2010-06-11T14:12:00.003+10:00

I note from the release below that Australia is $101. If you're that keen on the Socceroos, you'll get up to $175 on an Aussie victory.

"What's the difference?" you might ask. After all, they're both good odds on a long shot. A friend told me the other day he had been given $67 at the local TAB.

The answer to that is easy. You're only having a bet if you think they are a legitimate chance, in which case, the winnings will be your money. For a simple $10 bet, the difference in return from the two bookmakers is $750. The TAB odds are more than $1100 behind the pace!

That should be reason enough to shop around.

In the meantime, here's the latest from Sportingbet:

PUNTERS KEEN ON SPAIN'S ODDS FOR WORLD CUP WIN

Spain are the clear favourites for the 2010 World Cup with good bets at Sportingbet Australia bringing their odds in from $5.50 to $4.75.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets including one of $10,000 and another of $5000 had arrived over the past week.

“Spain is the only side the punters want prior to the tournament kicking off,” said Sullivan.

“We’ve taken bets including one of $10,000, another of $5000 and plenty of other four figure sums over the past week.

“The return of star front man Fernando Torres from injury has convinced punters and they’re expected to cruise past Switzerland and Honduras with only Chile providing any opposition in the group stages.”

Spain are ranked second in the World and are current European Champions but the best they have done in previous World Cups is a fourth place in 1950. They must also overcome the hoodoo that no European side has ever won a World Cup held outside of Europe.

2010 FIFA World Cup
Sportingbet Australia Market
Spain 4.75
Brazil 5.50
Argentina 7.50
England 8.50
Netherlands 11.00
Germany 13.00
Italy 15.00
France 21.00
Portugal 29.00
Ivory Coast 41.00
Paraguay 67.00
Ghana 67.00
Serbia 67.00
Mexico 67.00
Chile 67.00
USA 67.00
Australia 101.00
Uruguay 101.00
Nigeria 101.00
Cameroon 101.00
Denmark 101.00
Others 151.00 Plus

Latin News into Stradbroke Handicap field

2010-06-11T14:05:00.001+10:00

SWIFT ALLIANCE SCRATCHING GOOD NEWS FOR LATIN NEWS BACKERS

Punters who’ve backed Latin News to win the Stradbroke will be buoyed by the news that Swift Alliance has been scratched giving the Bart Cummings trained colt a start in the race.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michal Sullivan said Latin News was well supported yesterday.

“He was backed in from $11 to $8.50 before the scratching with bets including one of $5000,” said Sullivan.

“He is now into $7.00 second favouritism and we’re expecting more support following his luckless run last week.”

STRABROKE HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.20
Latin News 7.00
Melito 7.50
Catapulted 9.00
Black Piranha 12.00
Ortensia 12.00
Graceful Anna 12.00
Beaded 17.00
Albert The Fat 21.00
Mic Mac 21.00
Swift Alliance 23.00
Phelan Ready 26.00
Mr Baritone 31.00
Russeting 31.00
Stryker 31.00
Ghetto Blaster 31.00
Others 41.00 Plus

Stradbroke Handicap update

2010-06-11T10:46:00.001+10:00

PUNTERS KEEN ON KAVANAGH'S SECOND STRADBROKE STRING

QTC Cup winner Catapulted has been heavily backed for the Stradbroke shortening from $11 to $9.00 in the past 24 hours at Sportingbet Australia.

The Mark Kavanagh trained gelding was already a bad result for bookies after he was heavily backed at big odds before he even arrived in Queensland.

“Whobegotyou might be a dominant favourite but it is Kav’s other runner that punters have settled on this week,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.

“We took two bets to take out $20,000 and that was the start of an avalanche of money for him.

“He was already a bad result for us after we took some big bets at $26 following his big win at Flemington in mid May.”

Sullivan said there had been money for a number of horses at big odds in what was a very open Stradbroke away from Whobegotyou.

“Latin News has shortened from $11 to $8.50 and he looks a real chance if he can get a run,” Sullivan said.

“There has also been good money for roughies with bets to win $30,000 and $20,000 struck on Shellscrape at $41 and good money for Black Piranha and Mic Mac also.”

Catapulted must defy history to win the Stradbroke as no QTC Cup winner has backed up to win the race the following week.

STRABROKE HANDICAP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Whobegotyou 3.00
Melito 7.50
Latin News 8.50
Catapulted 9.00
Black Piranha 12.00
Ortensia 12.00
Graceful Anna 12.00
Beaded 17.00
Albert The Fat 21.00
Mic Mac 21.00
Swift Alliance 23.00
Phelan Ready 26.00
Mr Baritone 31.00
Russeting 31.00
Stryker 31.00
Ghetto Blaster 31.00
Others 41.00 Plus

World Cup red cards

2010-06-09T13:14:00.004+10:00

There are likely to be many novelty bets for the World Cup over the next couple of weeks. We'll try to keep you up to date with them as we hear.

CARD SHARKS?

Victor Chandler report that they have seen money for a few of their World Cup card markets. In a market involving the Time of the Fastest Red Card in the finals, the firm report that all the money has been for it being over 15 minutes.

“We were 11/8 about the earliest red card being after 15 minutes and we had a lot of money for it.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “It looks like we got that one wrong, although we are still hopeful that someone has a rush of blood early on.”

The fastest World Cup sending off was in 1986 when Uruguayian axeman Jose Batista had an early bath after just 56 seconds against Scotland. The firm also say that they have taken money for there not to be a booking in the 1st minute of any World Cup match in the finals.

“It doesn’t happen often so we dangled a bit of a carrot with the initial price of 10/1.” added Wilkins. “We have had to cut it to 5/1. It still sounds tempting, but the stats tell us that it is still unlikely.”

What time will the fastest red card be shown?
Under 10 minutes 12/5
10 – 15 minutes 3/1
Over 15 minutes 8/11

Will there be a booking in the 1st minute in the Finals?
Yes 5/1
No 1/10

SEEING RED?

Victor Chandler make it an even money chance that England go through the World Cup finals without getting a player sent off.

The firm make it a 13/8 that there is just one red card, 9/2 that there are two flashed and 10/1 that there are 3 or more shown. VC spokesman Neal Wilkins explains that the stats suggest the England lads will behave themselves this time around.

“In 1986 one was shown, in 1990 no red cards were shown. The next finals were in 1998and there was just one when Becks got his marching orders against Argentina.

In 2002 there were none, but in 2006 Wayne Rooney got a red, so in the scheme of things we should see no reds for our boys this time around. But as we know the stats can make us look rather stupid at times.”

How many England players will get sent off in the World Cup Finals?

None Evs
One 13/8
Two 9/2
Three or more 10/1

England well backed for World Cup

2010-06-09T13:11:00.000+10:00

ANYONE BUT ENGLAND OR BRAZIL FOR VICTOR CHANDLER

Victor Chandler report that England are now by far and away the worst result for the firm after laying them heavily at 8/1 for the World Cup. They have already laid Brazil heavily and these two are now big losers in the outright book.

“We have had a lot of money for England and they are already a half a million loser for us. It wouldn’t surprise us now if they will be a seven figure loser for us at some point.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins.

“We have stuck our neck out at 8s and the punters have really come out of the woodwork. We’ve laid several decent five figure bets, and a multitude of four figure bets. At this moment it’s anyone but England and Brazil for us.”

Will Hayne defect from NRL to AFL?

2010-06-08T10:54:00.002+10:00

It's no secret certain circles of the AFL have their eye on Jarryd Hayne, but would he go? And how many other big budgets are available. The price bar has been set fairly high.

This is a great market for the bookies, because chances are high that some no-name rugby league hack who played a little bit of AFL at school will be picked up on the cheap. After all, if the AFL can double the salary of someone with limited future in the NRL, why wouldn't they go? And the bookie cleans up!

WHO WILL DEFECT NEXT?

Greg Inglis is the $3.00 favourite in a Sportingbet Australia market to be the next NRL player to follow Karmichael Hunt and Israel Folau to AFL.

Inglis’ Storm teammate Billy Slater is on the second line of betting at $3.50 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Storm salary cap woes made them the two most obvious targets.

“Inglis and Slater are both freaks and would be brilliant at any sport so they are two obvious targets for AFL,” Sullivan said.

“The fact the Storm need to wipe around $1m off next season wages means they could very well be open to offers for one of their stars.”

Other players in Sportingbet market include, Jamal Idris, Jarryd Hayne, Josh Dugan and the Morris brothers, Brett and Josh.

“The AFL obviously have their sights set on the best young talent in the NRL, with Brad Scott the latest coach to target them and the list of players we came up with are the obvious targets,” Sullivan said.

“We are more than happy to quote prices on any other player and if no one defects by the end of 2011, we will refund all bets to punters.”

WHICH NRL PLAYER WILL BE NEXT TO DEFECT TO AFL
Sportingbet Australia Market
Greg Inglis 3.00
Billy Slater 3.50
Jamal Idris 8.00
Josh Morris 8.00
Brett Morris 8.00
Jarryd Hayne 9.00
Josh Dugan 11.00
Lachlan Coote 15.00
Darius Boyd 21.00
Michael Jennings 21.00
Todd Carney 26.00
Blake Ferguson 51.00
Manu Vatuvei 51.00
Fui Fui Moi Moi 101.00

Queensland Derby odds

2010-06-08T10:44:00.001+10:00

There is at times comfort in knowing that somebody stands to lose more than we do if our pick crumbles. But Kutchinsky does look like a good thing.

RACING: $40,000 BET ON KUTCHINSKY

Derby favourite Kutchinsky has shortened again after some massive bets were struck on the Tony Noonan trained gelding at Sportingbet Australia.

The Grand Prix winner has shortened from $3.00 to $2.70 since Friday and Sportingbet CEO Michael Sullivan said he had been the only one punters had wanted to back.

“We took a bet of $40,000 at $3.00 and that started a rush of money with punters snapping up the $2.80 and $2.70 as well,” Sullivan said.

“He isn’t a horse that will be too adversely affected by a bad barrier either as he will get back anyway so I can only see him continuing to shorten until Saturday.”

Sullivan said some Sportingbet punters were sitting pretty after snapping up $16 about Kutchinsky early in May.

“We took one bet of $30,000 to $2000 and another to win $10,000 so those punters would be thrilled with the price they secured,” he said.

New Zealander The Hombre is on the second line of betting at Sportingbet at $5.00 ahead of the Bart Cummings trained Landlord at $5.50 and Fieldmaster at $6.00.

2010 Queensland Derby
Sportingbet Australia market
KUTCHINSKY 2.7
THE HOMBRE 5.00
LANDLORD 5.50
FIELDMASTER 6.00
SIR TIME KEEPER 10
DARIANA 10
MARHETA 12
MY KEEPSAKE 13
LET THEM HAVE IT 16
BLUEYS WAY 17
CABEZA 18
ROCKET TO RIO 19
SANDERSON 21

Federal election odds against Rudd

2010-06-07T16:54:00.000+10:00

Incumbency can never be under-estimated, but people are clearly trying to send a message to the current government. If their tune doesn't change, the $2.60 looks very sweet.

RUDD SLIDE CONTINUES AS ABBOTT SHORTENS FURTHER

The Coalition has shortened into the tightest odds to win the 2010 election they have been since Kevin Rudd took power; now paying $2.60 down from $2.85 in Sportingbet Australia’s market.

This follows yet another terrible poll for Kevin Rudd’s Labor today, with a Herald/Nielsen poll delivering a 3-point kicking to the Government, who have seen their odds of re-election blow out from $1.40 to $1.47.

The poll showed that Tony Abbott’s Opposition is now leading the Government 53-47, which is enough to easily win government if the results were to be repeated on election day.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said that punters have identified Kevin Rudd’s slumping personal vote as a problem for the government.

“Punters want no part of Rudd or Labor at the moment with 90% of the money in the last week being for the Coalition,” said Mr Sullivan.

“We shortened the Coalition from $2.85 to $2.70 on the back of the polls this morning but were immediately claimed with bets of $5000 and $3000 arriving for them,” he said.

“Labor’s odds have blown from $1.20 to $1.47 in recent months and I can’t see punters wanting to back them until Rudd’s appeal with the electorate improves.”

AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor $1.47
Coalition $2.60

Racing tips from the TAB

2010-05-28T10:59:00.000+10:00

Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 28th May
Harold Park Race 3 - 7:30pm
No.2 - MY HIGH EXPECTATIONS USA

Saturday 29th May
Doomben Race 7 - 4:00pm
No.10 - HOT DANISH

Saturday 29th May
Wentworth Park Race 5 - 8:50pm
No.1 - DID I ENTERTAIN

State of Origin odds

2010-05-25T13:33:00.002+10:00

How about Israel Folau or Willie Tonga for first try scorer? Here are a few more prices to consider:

MAROON INJURY CONCERNS SEES MONEY COME FOR THE BLUES IN ORIGIN OPENER

Cameron Smith’s withdrawal as well as an injury cloud over Queensland’s Greg Inglis has seen New South Wales backed to win tomorrow night’s Origin opener with online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au.

Queensland were $1.72 favourites while New South Wales were $2.12 outsiders when betting opened last week. A constant stream of bets for the Blues now sees each side paying $1.92.

“We haven’t taken any huge bets yet, the big punters will wait and see if there is any more news out of the camps before making a decision,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“It’s more the weight of small to mid-range bets since the weekend that has forced the change in odds.

“We’re currently taking two bets on the Blues for each bet written on the Maroons.”

The Blues’ Kurt Gidley and Jarryd Hayne have been the best-backed to date for the Man of the Match award.

Queensland remains the $1.80 favourite to win the series.

Markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au

STATE OF ORIGIN GAME 1 – Wednesday, 26 May
$1.92 New South Wales (in from $2.12)
$1.92 Queensland (out from $1.72)

GAME 1 MAN OF THE MATCH
$7 Jonathan Thurston
$8 Billy Slater
$10 Darren Lockyer
$10 Greg Inglis
$11 Brett Kimmorley
$13 Jarryd Hayne
$13 Jamie Lyon
$15 Kurt Gidley

Others quoted

SERIES WINNER
$1.80 Queensland
$2.00 New South Wales

SERIES RESULT
$2.85 Queensland 2-1
$2.85 New South Wales 2-1
$4 Queensland 3-0
$5.75 New South Wales 3-0

How can Blues be favourites?

2010-05-25T12:48:00.002+10:00

I'm finding it very hard to understand how the Blues can be favourites to win the first game of State of Origin, yet underdogs to win the series. Anyone got any answers?

BLUES FAVOURITES FOLLOWING HEAVY BACKING

Sportingbet Australia punters have backed NSW in from $2.08 to $1.87 to take Game One of the state of Origin Series as Queensland continue to struggle with injury to key players.

Sportingbet Australia Michael Sullivan said punters had rallied for the Blues since Queensland confirmed Cameron Smith would miss the game.

“Cameron Smith is a huge out and the market has swung around since his absence was confirmed,” said Sullivan.

“We’ve taken bets on NSW including one of $15,000 at $1.91 and $10,000 at the plus two points and they’re all the rage with punters at the moment.”

Sullivan said he was still keen to take NSW on.

“"Queensland is still a better side on paper and look more dangerous across the park," Sullivan.

"The Maroons have won four series in a row and I am happy to be on them as outsiders as they always relish the underdog tag."

Despite losing the favourite tag for Game One, Queensland are still Series favourites at $1.80 with NSW $2.00 outsiders.

STATE OF ORIGIN – GAME ONE
Sportingbet Australia Market
NSW 1.87
Queensland 1.95

STATE OF ORIGIN – SERIES WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Queensland 1.80
NSW 2.00

Unusual bet on soccer World Cup ref

2010-05-21T16:02:00.002+10:00

This is an unusual market from Victor Chandler. Someone must have the inside running on this one ... SURELY!

WORLD CUP FINAL REF!
The news that Howard Webb has been given the nod to referee the Champions League Final on Saturday has prompted Victor Chandler to quote him at 10/1 to be in charge of the World Cup Final as well. The favourite to adjudicate in the main event in South Africa is Swiss referee Massimo Busacca at 9/4, closely followed by Jorge Larrionda from Uruguay at 11/4 and Frank de Bleeckere from Belgium at 10/3. Martin Hansson the Swedish ref who allowed the infamous Thierry Henry handball in Paris is in at 12/1.

“Webb is highly thought of, and it’s no surprise to see him getting the big games.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “The fact that he has got the Champions League Final though might work against him in South Africa, but if he has a blinder on Saturday it’ll probably boost his chances. What he doesn’t want is a nightmare.”

South African referee Jerome Damon is a 20/1 shot with another well thought of African ref, Koman Coulibaly from Mali in at 22/1. There are many referees in the list who’ll be hindered by their home nations performance. Carlos Simon is a highly regarded Brazilian referee but of course if Brazil get to the final he will be excluded. Webb’s chances are also relative to England’s performance as are Wolfgang Stark’s of Germany and Roberto Rossi’s of Italy.

Who will referee the World Cup Final

Massimo Busacca (Switzerla nd) 9/4
Jorge Larrionda (Uruguay) 11/4
Frank de Bleeckere (Belgium) 10/3
Roberto Rosetti (Italy) 7/1
Wolfgang Stark (Germany) 8/1
Howard Webb (England) 10/1
Martin Hansson (Sweden) 12/1
Carlos Simon (Brazil) 12/1
Oscar Ruiz (Colombia) 14/1
Alberto Undiano Mallenco (Spain) 16/1
Koman Coulibaly (Mali) 16/1
Hector Baldassi (Argentini a) 18/1
Jerome Damon (South Africa) 20/1
Benito Archundia (Mexico) 28/1
Marco Antonio Rodriguez (Mexico) 28/1
Viktor Kassai (Hungary) 33/1
Eddy Maillet (Seychelle s) 33/1
Mohamed Benouza (Algeria) 33/1
Stephane Lannoy (France) 33/1
Olegario Benquerenc a (Portugal) 40/1
Peter O'Leary (New Zealand) 50/1
Carlos Amarilla (Paraguay) 50/1
Pablo Pozo (Chile) 50/1
Yuichi Nishimura (Japan) 66/1
Khalil Al Ghamdi (Saudi Arabia) 66/1
Joel Aguilar (San Salvador) 66/1
Carlos Batres (Guatemala ) 66/1
Michael Hester (New Zealand) 80/1
Ravshan Irmatov (Uzbekista n) 80/1

Heads up on Champagne Classic

2010-05-21T15:54:00.000+10:00

ADEBISI BACKED IN CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC

The Desleigh Foster trained Adebisi has been the subject of a plunge for tomorrow’s Champagne Classic, at Sportingbet Australia, with the Shovhog Colt backed in from $7.00 to $6.50 on the back of some good bets.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said bets on the local included one of $4000 each way at $7.00.

“There’s been a fair bit of money for Adebisi this afternoon,” said Sullivan.

“He’s fast becoming the best early backed runner for tomorrow’s big Doomben meeting.”

Smokin’ Joey retains $3.80 favouritism for the Champagne Classic ahead of Buffering at $4.00.

CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Smokin’ Joey 3.80
Buffering 4.00
Spirit Of Boom 6.00
Adebisi 6.50
Broadway Harmony 9.00
Startsmeup 10.00
Pressday 12.00
Secession 12.00
Jesses Girl 15.00
Demanding Miss 17.00
Fashion 19.00
Others 41.00

David Villa at Barcelona

2010-05-19T21:17:00.001+10:00

Here's an interesting futures bet from Victor Chandler:

The news that David Villa has finally moved to Barcelona has prompted Victor Chandler to offer odds on how many La Liga goals he will bag next season. They make it a 13/8 shot that he scores over 24 goals or more, and also 13/8 that he is on targets 17 times or less. It is 15/8 that he scores anything in between.

“Villa is always going to score goals, but with the competition as fierce as it is in the Barca team, it’ll be interesting to see just how many he will get.” said VC spokesman Neal Wilkins. “They scored 98 last season, so in the scheme of things there’s plenty to go around.”

How many La Liga goals will David Villa score for Barcelona in 2010/11 season?

Under 18 13/8
18 – 23 15/8
Over 23 13/8

AFL grand final too early to predict

2010-05-19T13:10:00.002+10:00

It is worth prefacing this media release from Sportingbet by saying that it is incredibly rare to see the best two teams after round 8 both reach the grand final.

AFL: $4.00 FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GRAND FINAL PREVIEW

Geelong are $1.70 favourites to cement their place as Flag favourites against Collingwood on Friday night and punters can also back this week’s clash to be a Grand Final preview.

Sportingbet Australia is offering $4.00 that Geelong and Collingwood will go on to play in the Grand Final after the Pies shortened up to outright second favourites for the Flag behind Geelong.

“They are the two form sides in the competition and while Geelong deserve to be favourites for the Flag and Friday night’s clash, the Pies look genuine threats for both,” said Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan.

“We are expecting this to be the biggest betting game of the regular season much the same way Geelong vs St Kilda was in round 14 last year before they ultimately played in the Grand Final.

“We are betting $4.00 for a Geelong/Collingwood Grand Final and I expect punters will certainly come for that ahead of the $1.24 for any other side to break their dominance and make the Final.”

Sullivan said he is keen to take the Pies on despite their form over the last month.

“Collingwood have been impressive but Geelong were awesome against Brisbane and I have no doubt they deserve to be a clear favourite,” he said.

“The Pies are $2.15 with us and I will be looking to lay them until they can prove they are up to the benchmark Geelong has set.”

Collingwood vs Geelong
Sportingbet Australia market
Geelong 1.70
Collingwood 2.15

Collingwood vs Geelong Grand Final?
Sportingbet Australia market
Yes - Collingwood Play Geelong In 2010 Grand Final 4.00
No - Any Other Combination Of Teams 1.24

2010 AFL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
Geelong 3.50
Collingwood 3.75
Western Bulldogs 5.00
St Kilda 8.00
Carlton 13.00
Fremantle 18.00
Sydney 21.00
Brisbane 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Hawthorn 51.00
Essendon 67.00
North Melbourne 126.00
West Coast 201.00
Melbourne 201.00
Adelaide 501.00

State of Origin early tips

2010-05-19T10:25:00.003+10:00

Remember how Tahu was asked to mark Idris and failed miserably? Look for Queensland to pepper that flank, no matter how big the New South Wales backs are.

And one further comment: Anyone who thinks Queensland will be too much worse off without Cameron Smith is kidding themselves. Payne and Ballin are both worthy replacements and perhaps could even be considered the form players.

QUEENSLAND ORIGIN FAVOURITES DESPITE BLUES HOME GROUND ADVANTAGE

Queensland have been posted as favourites to take the State of Origin series and game one despite the Blues enjoying home ground advantage.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Queensland’s star studded line up were $1.75 favourites for the series opener but with an injury concern over Cameron Smith, he was keen to take them on.

“On paper the Maroons have it all over them as New South Wales have made some strange selections that would have made the Queenslanders smile,” Sullivan said.

“However, I can’t see punters wanting to back the Maroons until Cameron Smith is cleared and while he is doubt, I will be taking Queensland on as he is enormously important to their side.”

Sullivan said it was unusual for a side to be favourite for the series when they had two away games but Queensland’s dominance in recent years would see them start as $1.70 favourites.

“The Blues have a big advantage with two games in Sydney but with the Maroons side going for five in a row, they have to be favourite,” he said.

“If NSW had of selected a different side, which included Jarryd Hayne at fullback, the prices may have been a lot closer together.”

STATE OF ORIGIN GAME ONE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Queensland $1.75
New South Wales $2.08

STATE OF ORIGIN SERIES
Sportingbet Australia Market
Queensland $1.70
New South Wales $2.10

So you think you can dance list

2010-05-19T10:22:00.001+10:00

Yes, everybody loves Esther. Who cares whether she can dance or not.

ESTHER ANDERSON EARLY DANCING FAVOURITE

Home and Away star Esther Anderson is a $5.50 favourite to win the next series of Dancing With The Stars.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Home and Away actors had a tremendous record in the dancing series.

“Home and Away has produced one third of DWTS winners so it’s hard to underestimate any contestant from Australia’s most popular soap,” said Sullivan.

“Esther Anderson was popular enough to score a Gold Logie nomination and has to be a huge chance unless she has two totally left feet.”

Sullivan gave chances to several others including George Houvardas ($6.00), Tamara Jaber ($6.00) and former West Coast Eagle David Wirrpanda ($7.00).

“Houvardas is part of one of Australia’s most popular shows, Jaber has a strong dance background through her music video choreography and if Wirrpanda moves half as well as he did on the footy field he’d have to give this a big shake.”

DWTS - WINNER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Esther Anderson 5.50
George Houvardas 6.00
Tamara Jaber 6.00
David Wirrpanda 7.00
Melinda Schneider 7.00
Blair McDonough 8.00
Jo Beth Taylor 9.00
Alex Fevola 10.00
Rachel Finch 11.00
Rob Palmer 14.00
Jason Stevens 17.00

Vettel's turn to win?

2010-05-14T11:35:00.002+10:00

So, is it Vettel's turn to win, or can Lewis Hamilton keep his car together this time?

WEBBER $5.50 CHANCE AT MONACO

Aussie Mark Webber is a $5.50 chance to win his second successive Formula One Grand Prix in Monaco this weekend with Red Bull team mate Sebastian Vettel the $3.00 Favourite.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Webber was now considered a leading chance in any race he contests and Monaco should suit him perfectly.

“Red Bull now look to have this seasons car sorted and are once again the fastest on the racetrack,” said Sullivan.

“It’s been a long road for Webber but he’s now well and truly established himself in Formula One’s top echelon of drivers.

“The Red Bull cars have shown great qualifying speed and the Monaco track is notoriously hard to pass on which means grid positions will be critical.”

Webber currently sits in fourth place on the standings seventeen points adrift of leader Jensen Button and is a $5.50 chance with Sportingbet for the Championship.

MONACO FORMULA ONE GP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Sebastian Vettel [RED] 3.00
Fernando Alonso [FER] 4.50
Lewis Hamilton [McL] 5.50
Mark Webber [RED] 5.50
Jenson Button [McL] 13.00
Michael Schumacher [MER] 15.00
Felipe Massa [FER] 21.00
Nico Rosberg [MER] 23.00
Robert Kubica [REN] 26.00
Adrian Sutil [FIN] 81.00
Vitaly Petrov [REN] 126.00
Others 201.00 Plus

Tips from the TAB

2010-05-14T11:30:00.000+10:00

Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 14th May
Harold Park Race 5 - 8:30pm
No.3 - ARTESIAN BOY NZ

Saturday 15th May
Doomben Race 7 - 3:50pm
No.10 - MELITO

Saturday 15th May
Wentworth Park Race 9 - 10:20pm
No.1 - MAGIC SPRITE

Next West Ham manager odds

2010-05-12T09:47:00.001+10:00

GRANT ODDS ON WITH CHANDLER FOR HAMMERS JOB

Victor Chandler make Portsmouth manager, Avram Grant the early favourite to take over as boss at West Ham Utd after Gianfranco Zola was sacked earlier today.

Grant is just 2/5 to take the Upton Park hot seat after impressing with his stint at Fratton Park – leading Pompey to this weekend’s FA Cup final despite the club’s financial turmoil.

“We’ve already seen money for Avram Grant and have now cut him to just 2/5 for the job. Most punters seem to think that the Cup final will be his final game at Pompey.

He probably doesn’t fancy a stint in the Championship,” said VC spokesman, Dave Jenkins.

Slaven Bilic is second favourite at 6/1, although the former Hammer would have to free himself from his contract with the Croatian national team. Two former West Ham managers, Alan Pardew (9/1) and Alan Curbishley (12/1) are also in the betting along with Zola’s assistant Steve Clarke (10/1) and former Man City manager, Mark Hughes (10/1).

One man Chandler’s don’t think will be going back to Upton Park, despite his availability is Paul Ince. An unpopular figure in East London ever since leaving for Man Utd some 21 years ago, Ince can be backed at 100/1 to take over at the Boleyn Ground.

Next Permanent West Ham Manager
Avram Grant 2/5
Slaven Bilic 6/1
Alan Pardew 9/1
Steve Clark 10/1
Alan Curbishley 12/1
Paul Ince 100/1

Socceroos world cup squad

2010-05-11T16:10:00.001+10:00

Qantas Socceroos Head Coach Pim Verbeek today announced his preliminary squad for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ which begins in South Africa next month.

Qantas Airways CEO Alan Joyce and FFA CEO Ben Buckley were also on hand at today’s unveiling which occurred at the Qantas Jet Base in Sydney in front of the “Qantas Socceroos” Boeing 747 aircraft which will fly the team to Johannesburg for the tournament.

Fourteen of the players selected were involved in the Qantas Socceroos 2006 FIFA World Cup™ campaign including the captain Lucas Neill, Michael Beauchamp, Mark Bresciano, Tim Cahill, Scott Chipperfield, Jason Culina, Brett Emerton, Vincenzo Grella, Joshua Kennedy, Mark Milligan, Craig Moore Harry Kewell Mark Schwarzer, and Luke Wilkshire.

It will potentially be the first FIFA World Cup™ finals appearance for Nick Carle, David Carney, Adam Federici, Richard Garcia, James Holland, Brett Holman, Mile Jedinak, Brad Jones, Shane Lowry, Jade North, Scott McDonald, Nikita Rukavytsya, Carl Valeri, Dario Vidosic, Rhys Williams and 18-year old Tommy Oar who was the NAB Young Footballer of the Year at the conclusion of the Hyundai A-League 2009/10 season.

Although not officially included in the list of 30-names that will be submitted to FIFA, Adelaide United’s Eugene Galekovic will also join the squad as a stand-by goal keeper.

As per FIFA regulations, Verbeek will name his final squad of 23 players on Saturday 1st June in South Africa.

The Qantas Socceroos will assemble in Melbourne on Wednesday 19th May to commence their preparations for their farewell match against the New Zealand All Whites at the MCG on Monday 24th May.

The Qantas Socceroos will then depart for Johannesburg on Wednesday 26th May on the special Qantas “Socceroos” Boeing 747 flight out of Melbourne.

As part of their final preparations for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™, the Qantas Socceroos will play international friendly matches against Denmark and the United States of America (USA) on the 1st and 5th June, respectively, at Ruimsig Stadium near Johannesburg.

The Qantas Socceroos have been drawn in Group D for the 2010 FIFA World Cup™ and will face Germany in their opening match of the tournament on Sunday 13th June in Durban, followed by matches against Ghana on Saturday 19th June and then Serbia on Wednesday 23rd June.

Should the Qantas Socceroos place in the top two positions of Group D at the end of the first phase of the competition, they will play their next opponent from Group C (England, USA, Algeria or Slovenia) in the Round of 16 on either Saturday 26th June (Rustenburg) or Sunday 27th June (Mangaung/Bloemfontein).

The Quarter Finals of the tournament will be held on the 2nd and 3rd July with the Semi Finals on the 6th and 7th July and the Final to be played on the 11th July.

Preliminary squad in full

Michael BEAUCHAMP (Al-Jazira Club, UAE)
Mark BRESCIANO (U.S. Citta di Palermo, Italy)
Tim CAHILL (Everton FC, England)
Nick CARLE (Crystal Palace, England)
David CARNEY (FC Twente, Netherlands)
Scott CHIPPERFIELD (FC Basel, Switzerland)
Jason CULINA (Gold Coast United, Australia)
Brett EMERTON (Blackburn Rovers, England)
Adam FEDERICI (Reading FC, England)
Eugene GALEKOVIC* (Adelaide United, Australia)
Richard GARCIA (Hull City, England)
Vincenzo GRELLA (Blackburn Rovers, England)
James HOLLAND (AZ Alkmaar, Netherlands)
Brett HOLMAN (AZ Alkmaar, Netherlands)
Mile JEDINAK (Antalyaspor Kulubu, Turkey)
Brad JONES (Middlesbrough FC, England)
Josh KENNEDY (Nagoya Grampus, Japan)
Harry KEWELL (Galatasaray SK, Turkey)
Shane LOWRY (Aston Villa FC, England)
Scott MCDONALD (Middlesbrough FC, England)
Mark MILLIGAN (JEF United, Japan)
Craig MOORE (Uncontracted)
Lucas NEILL (Galatasaray SK, Turkey)
Jade NORTH (Tromsø, Norway)
Tom OAR (FC Utrecht, Netherlands)
Nikita RUKAVYTSYA (FC Twente, Netherlands)
Mark SCHWARZER (Fulham FC, England)
Carl VALERI (U.S. Sassuolo Calcio, Italy)
Dario VIDOSIC (FC Nurnberg, Germany)
Luke WILKSHIRE (FK Dinamo Moscow, Russia)
Rhys WILLIAMS (Middlesbrough FC, England)

Port Adelaide betting investigation

2010-05-04T15:51:00.002+10:00

Port Adelaide is under investigation over a $20 bet placed 14 months ago.

Surely, they can't be serious. While I understand the implications of match fixing, a multi-bet containing two Premier League games and an AFL match can hardly be regarded a serious breach.

Must be a slow news day.

Read about it here

Punters turn to Liberals in Federal politics

2010-05-04T10:29:00.001+10:00

... And the mud-slinging hasn't even started yet!

PUNTERS TURN TO COALITION AS POLLS STING LABOR

The Coalition’s odds for a shock election victory have been slashed from $3.40 to $3.00 at Sportingbet Australia after they hit the front in the two party preferred for the first time since the 2007 election.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said there had been a series of bets placed on the Coalition at $3.40 and $3.20 since the poll and he expected the money to keep coming.

“Labor are still clear favourites at $1.36 but I can’t see punters rushing to back them following this poll,” Sullivan said.

“All the money has been for the Coalition this morning with punters thinking the $3.40 looked attractive given they were ahead in the poll.

“While this is probably a rogue poll, it would still be of concern to Kevin Rudd and punters will abandon him until he starts turning things around.”

Sullivan said Tony Abbott would need to convert many of those disillusioned with Rudd the if Coalition was to challenge for favouritism.

“Tony Abbott at least has clear positions on issues, in contrast to some of his predecessors and that makes him a more dangerous opponent for Rudd,” he said.

“The perception of him as a man of action is sure to help at this time too when many are complaining that the Prime Minister is the complete opposite.

“The fact the Coalition grabbed only three of the eight points Labor lost is a concern though and until he can turn those undecided voters to the Coalition, he will remain the outsider.”

FEDERAL ELECTION
Sportingbet Australia Market
Labor 1.36
Coalition 3.00

Australian wins world snooker championship 2010

2010-05-04T10:17:00.004+10:00

Australian Neil Robertson has just secured the world snooker championship, defeating Scotland's Graeme Dott 18 frames to 13 in the final.

Robertson is the first non-British winner since 1980.

He finished the tournament to roars from his family and friends with an unbeatable break of 53.

More here.

Billy Slater's future

2010-04-27T15:30:00.001+10:00

NRL: MARKET ON SLATER TO LEAVE THE STORM

With speculation continuing about Billy Slater’s playing future, Sportingbet Australia have opened a market on which code the star fullback will be playing in 2011.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Storm remained a slight favourite to keep Slater as he is under contract for another year but the salary cap situation meant there were several other viable options.

“The Storm will be desperate to keep Slater as he is incredibly popular with the fans as well as been a tremendous player,” Sullivan said.

“He is $1.60 to stay at the Storm with the most obvious other option being a switch Rugby Union rivals, the Melbourne Rebels who would love to Slater to switch codes.

“It would be major coup for them and given they have no salary cap and money to spend, the $2.50 about a switch to the Rebels could be the value.”

The market also has an option on Slater following Karmichael Hunt and switching to AFL.

“He would be a sensation in AFL with his pace and creativity and there would be plenty of teams who would be keen to see how he goes,” Sullivan said.

“The Gold Coast or Western Sydney would also be keen on the publicity and interest he would bring from NRL fans.”

Where will Billy Slater Play in 2011
Sportingbet Australia market
Melbourne Storm 1.60
Melbourne Rebels 2.50
Any other NRL team 5.50
Any AFL team 6.50
Will not play 1st grade NRL, AFL or Super 14 in Australia 7.00
Any other Super 14 team 15.00

Storm player "Premiers" tattoo removal offer

2010-04-23T14:16:00.002+10:00

Nice gimmick:

BOOKIE OFFERS TO PAY FOR STORM TATTOO REMOVAL

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has offered to pay for the laser removal of premiership tattoos for Melbourne Storm players who played in the 2007 and 2009 Grand Final sides.

Many of the players now have permanent reminders of premierships which have now been erased from the record books.

“Some of the tattoos are pretty decent in size and some players may now regret putting the tattoo pen to skin,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“They say a clean break is always best and we’re happy to chip in if it helps these players erase this episode from their memories and get on with their careers.”

AFL club implicated in Melbourne Storm drama?

2010-04-23T13:35:00.004+10:00

The plot thickens:

AFL WOODEN SPOON BETTING SUSPENDED

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has suspended AFL Wooden Spoon betting amid speculation an AFL Club may be implicated in the Melbourne Storm salary cap saga.

Several punters placed bets on St Kilda to finish last in 2010 shortly before betting was suspended, with odds ranging from $5001 to $1001.

“One punter placed a bet of $110 on the Saints for the Wooden Spoon to win $110,000,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Like everyone we think and hope there is nothing in it, although as we’ve seen in the past 24 hours, stranger things have happened.”

St Kilda is currently second in AFL Premiership betting with Sportsbet.com.au at $4.50.

Weekend racing tips

2010-04-23T10:55:00.001+10:00

Tips from New South Wales TAB:

Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 23rd April
Tabcorp Park Menangle Race 7 - 10:00pm
No.5 - WESTERN CAM

Saturday 24th April
Randwick Race 5 - 2:55pm
No.9 - MONACO CONSUL

Saturday 24th April
Wentworth Park Race 6 - 9:12pm
No.8 - ASHBY DEVIL

Melbourne Storm fallout

2010-04-22T17:06:00.000+10:00

And the fallout begins:

BIG PAYOUT ON WOODEN SPOON AS STORM STRIPPED OF POINTS

Sportingbet Australia will pay over $40,000 on the Wooden Spoon after Melbourne Storm were stripped of all their Premiership points.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said this would change the way Wooden Spoon betting would be done in the future.

“Melbourne has gone from $251 to no betting in the space of six hours which has to be the biggest shortener in betting history,” Sullivan said.

“We will look at the way we bet on the Wooden Spoon in the future as punters and bookmakers alike are betting without all the information.”

“We have refunded all Premiership bets on Melbourne as they are now out of calculations.”

Sullivan said the decision had an enormous impact on betting going forward in 2010 as well.

“This has consequences on match betting throughought the year, as what motivation do the Storm have if they can’t finish anywhere but last,” he said.

“We have suspended all markets on Melbourne’s game this weekend’s with the Warriors.

“St George are the new favourites for the Premiership at $4.50 ahead of Parramatta and Manly at $7.00.”

NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
St George Dragons 4.50
Manly Sea Eagles 6.50
Parramatta Eels 6.50
Wests Tigers 7.50
Penrith Panthers 9.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 11.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 11.00
Sydney Roosters 15.00
Brisbane Broncos 26.00
New Zealand Warriors 29.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Newcastle Knights 51.00
North Qld Cowboys 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 251.00

Melbourne Storm NRL statement in full

2010-04-22T16:14:00.001+10:00

The National Rugby League has today stripped the Melbourne Storm of the 2007 and 2009 Telstra Premierships, the Minor Premierships of 2006-8 and of its 2010 competition points after confirming a series of salary cap breaches amounting to at least $1.7million over five years.

The club will lose all competition points earned to date in 2010 and also the right to accumulate points going forward in 2010 (competition tables will record wins and losses but the club will not be awarded competition points on the basis of any wins). These measures are effective as of today.

The club has furthermore been fined $500,000 and will be forced to return $1.1million in prize-money with the prize-money being distributed evenly among the other fifteen clubs.

Individual awards by players will continue to be recognised but records will be adjusted to show that the Premiership is not recognised even though the result cannot be overturned. Neither Manly nor Parramatta will assume the Premiership titles in their respective years.

The Storm’s Chairman and Chief Executive met with the NRL in Sydney today to confirm the extent of the breaches uncovered by NRL Salary Cap Auditor Ian Schubert and his audit team.

The investigations have revealed the Storm maintained a dual contract system and the club has today confirmed that side letters promising extra payments were stored in a secret file at the home of the Chief Executive.

The accounts were structured in such a way that it would appear the commitments were not apparent to either the Melbourne Storm Board or its owners.

The NRL has uncovered breaches estimated to be in excess of $1.7million over five years, around $400,000 in 2009 and with a projected breach of $700,000 in 2010.

“While the amount itself is cause for concern, the most damning indictment is the systematic attempt by persons within the club to conceal payments from the Salary Cap auditor and, it would now seem certain from the club’s Board and from its owners, on an ongoing basis,” Mr Gallop said.

"It was through this system that they were able to attract and retain some of the biggest names in Rugby League.

“In doing so they have let down the game, the players and the fans of the Melbourne Storm.

“Clearly there were some individuals who knew what was going on and perhaps many who did not.

“By nature, that means innocent parties will suffer as a result of this punishment but the persons responsible are those who constructed the scheme and anyone who knowingly signed a false statutory declaration to deceive the game.

“It would be unfair now on the players and fans of every other club in the competition to allow the Storm to enter this year’s finals series or to retain the titles they won.

“As a game we will do all we can to restore the faith of each of those parties but there is no alternative now but to deal with the situation that has been so deliberately engineered.

“As was the case with Canterbury after 2002, the only other instance in which we have seen such an elaborate and contrived set of accounts, there is the chance for the club to begin a rebuilding process with the fans and the game by the way it conducts itself in the weeks and months ahead.

“A significant step in that process has been the way the Melbourne Board has reacted to the information the Salary Cap team tabled this week.

“Rather than look to conceal the activities, the Board has cooperated fully and we have been informed that the club’s owners, News Limited, have now ordered a full forensic examination of all club accounts.

“It should be pointed out that, as owners of the club, News Limited has only been made aware of the investigation in recent days.

“Ian Schubert and his assistant Jamie L’Oste Brown have been collecting information in relation to this process for some time and their commitment to that process deserves considerable respect.

“Salary cap investigation is among the most difficult and in many ways least rewarding roles in the game but, despite the thoughts of some critics, there is universal acceptance of the importance of the cap and of the contribution it has made to the most successful era in the game’s history.

“In truth, this issue is not so much about the Salary Cap but the simple reality of cheating the rules as they stand at any time. Everyone knew the rules, particularly after 2002.

“This investigation has relied on detailed reviews of accounts as well as evidence from informants.

“It is a reminder to everyone who wishes to test the rules that there is every likelihood the truth will emerge in time and that the consequences will be severe at that point.”

NRL Melbourne Storm betting suspended

2010-04-22T11:10:00.002+10:00

CONTROVERSY LOOMS - WOODEN SPOON BETTING SUSPENDED AS STORM WELL BACKED

Betting on the NRL Wooden Spoon has been suspended after a string of bets were taken on the Melbourne Storm at $251 with Sportingbet Australia this morning.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the move set off alarm bells as the Storm are favourites for the Premiership and look no hope of winning the Spoon.

“We took three bets to win $10,000 and another to win $8000 on the Storm for the Wooden Spoon all within 10 minutes of each other this morning,” Sullivan said.

“You don’t take a series of bets like that unless someone knows something or think they know something and we have suspended betting on the Wooden Spoon as a result.

“Melbourne is now our worst result for the Wooden Spoon despite the fact they are Premiership favourites.”

The Storm are still $5.00 with Sportingbet Australia for the Premiership ahead of St George at $5.50.

NRL WOODEN SPOON (BEFORE BETTING SUSPENDED)
Sportingbet Australia Market
Cronulla Sharks 1.67
Brisbane Broncos 8.00
Canberra Raiders 9.00
Newcastle Knights 9.00
North Queensland Cowboys 9.00
New Zealand Warriors 17.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 34.00
Parramatta Eels 34.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 51.00
Sydney Roosters 51.00
Gold Coast Titans 67.00
Penrith Panthers 101.00
Wests Tigers 101.00
Manly Sea Eagles 151.00
Melbourne Storm 251.00
St George Dragons 251.00

NRL PREMIERSHIP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Melbourne Storm 5.00
St George Dragons 5.50
Parramatta Eels 8.50
Manly Sea Eagles 9.00
Wests Tigers 9.00
Penrith Panthers 12.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 13.00
Gold Coast Titans 13.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 13.00
Sydney Roosters 18.00
Brisbane Broncos 29.00
New Zealand Warriors 34.00
Canberra Raiders 51.00
Newcastle Knights 51.00
North Qld Cowboys 51.00
Cronulla Sharks 251.00

So you think you can dance result

2010-04-22T09:17:00.001+10:00

DANCE WINNER LANDS PUNTERS A WINDFALL

Sportingbet Australia punters cleaned up when Sydney contemporary dancer Robbie was crowned Australia’s favourite dancer on the So You Think You Can Dance Grand Final.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said Robbie was an odds on favourite for much of the competition after starting it at odds as long as $13.00.

“We had several punters clever enough to find the $13 with the good odds based on our initial feeling that Robbie might struggle with lifting some of his taller partners,” said Sullivan.

“But it became apparent by week five that Robbie was the one to beat and he spent most of the show as the shortest priced favourite in So You Think You Can Dance history.”

Robbie started the final as the $1.60 favourite with runner up Jessie H at $3.00.

Sydney Cup update

2010-04-21T16:00:00.002+10:00

After its last run, it's difficult to see how Precedence can be favourite. Jessicabeel is a good price for mine.

MOATIZE TO PROVIDE A SPARK FOR BART

Sportingbet Australia punters think Moatize can give master trainer Bart Cummings a spark up by taking Saturday’s Sydney Cup at Randwick.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the five year old gelding had been well supported in betting.

“ We bet as much as $16 about Moatize early with one punter getting on to win over $20,000,” said Sullivan.

“And he’s been $11 into $8.50 since we put up odds on the final field with another getting on to win $20,000.

“Bart has followed the tried and trusted route of getting miles into Moatize’s legs and the JRA Plate run suggests he’s right on target for the Cup.”

Stablemate Precedence is a $6.60 favourite in a wide open Sydney Cup.

SYDNEY CUP
Sportingbet Australia Market
Precedence 6.60
Jessicabeel 7.50
Zavite 8.00
No wine No Song 8.00
Littorio 8.00
Moatize 8.50
Harris Tweed 9.00
Capecover 11.00
Booming 12.00
Divine Rebel 17.00
Spin Around 26.00
Get Up Jude 51.00

NRL Melbourne vs Manly preview

2010-04-19T14:07:00.002+10:00

For anybody who thinks Manly is a chance against Melbourne tonight, it seems you are not alone. At least one other person agrees with you.

I had a look at the "Last Man Standing" competition on Sportingbet, of the 1000 or so people still remaining out of an initial 10,000+, 291 of them are sweating on a Melbourne victory.

A solitary one wants Manly to win.

By that reckoning, you could safely say the $3.25 on offer for a Manly win is slightly under the odds. Likewise, it's probably safe to say that the bookies will be cheering on Jamie Lyon and his crew.

Apology from a tipster

2010-04-19T13:49:00.002+10:00

Most tipping sites brag about their wins. Rarely do they mention their losses. It's bad for business.

Given that I rely on my own tips and any inside information I can get from the industry, I feel I am in a position to bite the bullet, take the plunge, run the gauntlet, buck the trend, and all those other cliches I've heard while listening to ABC Grandstand at the weekend.

Take this as an apology, a confession if you like. For, as I packed up the family for a weekend away, I rushed through a few tips - genuine tips; tips I backed myself before putting my foot on the accelerator and spending time with the wife and children.

There were 12 of them altogether. Two were successful. Yes, as embarrassing as it is to admit it, I've let everybody down - and seemingly I hexed all whose name was uttered in tipsterville.

Daniel Kerr did a hamstring when he was well ahead of trio opponents in the fantasy challenge; Reimers twisted an ankle in similar circumstances; Matthew Boyd missed a stack of the game with an injury.

To them, I apologise. To you, I apologise. To myself, well, it's back on the horse, so to speak.

A quick poll shows we're still ahead over three weeks of fantasy tips, so we'll shelve this one as a lost cause and keep cracking the whip.

Until then, good luck and happy punting.

Richmond already wins wooden spoon

2010-04-19T13:46:00.002+10:00

Good news if you're a punter - tragic if you're a Tigers fan.

BOOKIE PAYS OUT ON RICHMOND FOR THE SPOON AFTER ONLY FOUR ROUNDS!

Online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au has paid out on Richmond to collect the wooden spoon after only four rounds.

With 18 rounds to go in the 2010 AFL Premiership Season, the bookie has paid out more than $100,000 to punters who backed Richmond to finish on the bottom of the ladder.

“Unfortunately for Richmond fans we think we’ll be paying out on the Tigers at the end of the season, so our punters may as well collect their cash now,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“There are 18 rounds to go so it’s a definite gamble.”

Richmond, who were paying as much as $5 in early Wooden Spoon markets, are now $1.25 favourites to take home the dreaded prize.

The payout applies to all bets placed before 12noon Monday 19th April.

Sportsbet.com.au is also offering odds of $5 on Richmond not winning a game this season, although one big punter has faith and has placed $10,000 at $1.16 on the Tigers winning at least one match this season.

Sportsbet.com.au is generating a reputation for paying out early on big sporting competitions. In November last year, the bookie paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the Australian Masters after two rounds when he was three strokes ahead. Woods faltered in the third round to share the lead with two others, before he shot clear on the final day to win the tournament.

Updated Wooden Spoon Market
$1.25 Richmond
$7 North Melbourne
$12 Adelaide
$17 Melbourne
$17 West Coast
$26 Essendon
$41 Port Adelaide

AFL Saturday fantasy trio tips

2010-04-16T23:50:00.004+10:00

I'll be away from the computer, but here's a few selections for Saturday:

Collingwood vs Hawthorn

Swan vs Mitchell vs Hodge
Tip: Luke Hodge. Form of more than 100 points in three games is terrific, and he's a big game player.

Davis vs Rioli vs Ellis
Tip: Cyril Rioli: Scored 130 points last week and should be even better for the run.

Pendlebury vs Didak vs Ball
Tip: Luke Ball: Seems to have finally found his feet in the Magpies midfield.

Adelaide vs Carlton

Gibbs vs Murphy vs Vince
Tip: Bryce Gibbs: Had a shocker last week and will be out for redemption.

Simpson vs Judd vs Thompson
Tip: Chris Judd: No form in first game back, but hard to tip against a champion who'll be hungry for the ball.

Scotland vs Edwards vs Goodwin
Tip: Heath Scotland: Has form in a high-possession team.

Brisbane vs Bulldogs

Boyd vs Brown vs Cross
Tip: Matt Boyd: Hard to go against the man who should dominate the midfield.

Power vs Cooney vs Higgins
Tip: Higgins: While others are marked, Higgins usually gets a fair whack of the ball.

Sherman vs Drummond vs Giansiracusa
Tip: Justin Sherman: I don't have great confidence here, but his scores have been the best of the 3.

AFL preview North Melbourne vs Sydney

2010-04-16T17:05:00.002+10:00

The Kangaroos lifted last week, largely led by Boomer Harvey but the Swans are in terrific form and play well as a team - they should be far too tough for North Melbourne in this one. Swans by 32.

Fantasy trios on Sportsbet:

Anthony vs O'Keefe vs Goodes

Tip: Liam Anthony

If the Kangaroos are to be at all competitive in this game, Anthony has to get plenty of the ball. And he has to be as intense as he was in the first game, when he registered 9 tackles. O'Keefe is a premier player, as is Goodes, but I'm working on the theory that Anthony consistently gets big fantasy scores, and that the Swans will share it around moreso than the Roos.

Harvey vs Swallow vs Jude Bolton

Tip: Swallow

Each of these three lifted last week, but the consisent performer has been Swallow, who has 99 and 119 points over the past fortnight. One would think that after 44 possessions last week, Harvey will cop a hard tag, and that's something Sydney do well. Bolton ran loose last week with 115 points, but Swallow is the one for mine.

Kennedy vs Kennelly vs Ziebell

Tip: Josh Kennedy

On the surface, the midfielder here (Ziebell) might seem the logical pick, but Kennedy is getting plenty of run off half back and scored 92 and 101 points the previous two weeks. Ziebell lifted last week but still only managed 85 points after a dismall 34 the week before. Irishman Kennelly has been good with 108, 59 and 82 over the past three weeks, but we'll tip Kennedy on current form.

AFL preview West Coast vs Essendon

2010-04-16T16:54:00.003+10:00

Essendon is the form side. Some pundits are tipping the West Coast for the reason they're at home, and that they're "due". Not good enough for mine: Bombers by 12.

Fantasy options with Sportsbet:

Le Cras vs Kerr vs Kennedy

Tip: Kerr

Occasionally the bookies throw in a curly one which basically equates to which player will find form first. Le Cras has kicked some goals, but his possession count is low and his intensity is also in question. Kerr has been, by his lofty standards, terrible. Kennedy has defeated Kerr all three weeks so far, but with fantasy scores of 78, 73 and 63. I'd expect Kerr to lift for a must-win game.

Embley vs Ebert vs Rosa

Tip: Embley

Rosa blasted into the team last week with a mountain of possessions, and 120 points, but Embley has been gathering momentum and must continue to perform. He scored 83 points in round 1, but followed up with 102 and 111 last week. Ebert has also been good, but if the Eagles are to improve, I believe a lot of responsibility will be on the shoulders of Embley to lead the charge.

Winderlich vs Reimers vs Dalziell

Tip: Reimers

Reimers at forward has scored 80 in Round 1 and 114 last week. He's getting plenty of the ball and kicking goals. Winderlich had a good pre-season, but scores of 58, 82 and 73 are nothing to write home about. Dalziell had his first game for the year last week with 61 points and is hard to consider. Reimers is the special for mine.

James Boag Galaxy update

2010-04-16T16:21:00.000+10:00

Sorry I don't have much to say on this one, but thought it worth sending through for those who want the latest market movements:

GOOD BACKING FOR GALAXY ROUGHIES

Punters are struggling to sort out tomorrow’s Galaxy with good money for several horses at Sportingbet Australia.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while favourite Ortensia had been heavily backed there was also good money for De Lightning Ridge and roughies Motspur and Mount Verde.

“Ortensia got crunched in from $4.60 to $3.70 as soon as we started betting on the event but there’s been a fair bit of money to say the other three can upset her,” said Sullivan.

“De Lightning Ridge has attracted enough money to have her odds slashed from $8.00 to $7.50, Mount Verde is in from $81 to $71 with one punter on to collect over $50,000 and Motspur has been the subject of a good plunge which has seen the price plummet from $41 to $17.

Sullivan said there was no money for Swift Alliance which has drifted from $6 to $7 despite a strong win in the Star Kingdom.

“We’re struggling to write a ticket on Swift Alliance despite one of the best strike rates in the field.”

“We’re sure we’d lay him if the race was at Rosehill but he has been beaten a couple of times here and in this type of company.”

THE JAMES BOAG GALAXY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Ortensia 3.70
Definitely Ready 4.60
Swift Alliance 7.00
De Lightning Ridge 7.50
Dorf Command 11.00
Rostova 14.00
Stryker 15.00
Motspur 17.00
Gold Trail 21.00
Shellscrape 26.00
Typhoon Zed 41.00
The Mikado 51.00
Friday Creek 51.00
Mount Verde 71.00
Seeking Attention 151.00

Weekend racing tips

2010-04-16T10:17:00.002+10:00

Here's a few tips courtesy of the New South Wales TAB experts:

Harness Gallops Greyhounds
Friday 16th April
Harold Park Race 5 - 8:30pm
No.9 - LADY LEXUS

Saturday 17th April
Randwick Race 6 - 3:35pm
No.16 - PALACIO DE CRISTAL

Saturday 17th April
Wentworth Park Race 5 - 8:50pm
No.2 - DID I ENTERTAIN

This is one nervous punter...

2010-04-15T13:18:00.001+10:00

It's the multi dreams are made of:

One punter with online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au will turn a $5 investment into more than $8000 if Typhoon Tracy can win the Doncaster Mile on Saturday.

The punter had a seven-leg multi bet at the odds of $1676.34 on a combination of AFL and NRL matches last weekend. The final leg of the bet is for Typhoon Tracy to win the Doncaster.

Typhoon Tracy is unbeaten in her last five runs - four of those at Group 1 level - and goes into the race as the $3 favourite with Sportsbet.com.au.

“We often get excited by the bigger bets, but spare a thought for this $5 punter who stands to win a motza if Typhoon Tracy can get across the line first on Saturday,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“She is certainly the one to beat and I don’t think she’ll be too disadvantaged by her wide barrier (14).”

$5 Multi bet with Sportsbet.com.au at the combined odds of $1676.34 to win $8376.68
Odds Selection
$2.25 AFL – St Kilda to beat Collingwood by 1-39 points (St Kilda won by 28 points)
$2.50 AFL – Brisbane to beat Port Adelaide by 1-39 points (Brisbane won by 27 points)
$2.25 AFL – Western Bulldogs to beat Hawthorn by 1-39 points (Western Bulldogs won by 16 points)
$3.15 AFL – Fremantle to beat Geelong by 1-39 points (Fremantle won by seven points)
$3.65 NRL – Gold Coast to beat Melbourne by 1-12 points (Gold Coast won by four points)
$3.20 NRL – Wests Tigers to beat North Queensland Cowboys by 1-12 points (Wests Tigers won by seven points)
$3.60 Typhoon Tracy to win the Doncaster Mile – Saturday, 17 April @ 3.35pm

Plenty of panic at Parramatta Eels

2010-04-14T10:20:00.002+10:00

Yesterday, the headlines screamed "No panic at Eels" as Nathan Hindmarsh was wheeled out to do the publicity for the club which has lost 4 of its first 5 games.

Hindy told radio and whoever else who'd listen that his side looked better against Canberra than they had for weeks - but that there was no explanation for the loss.

Perhaps there's a clue: Each time Canberra scored, the cameras showed Cayless with his head in his hands - hardly an indication of confidence.

Hindmarsh said there were too many generals, and that there should be one man directing traffic. Hindy himself seemed to be running into dead ends each time he touched the ball.

So today, the club announces Hindy as co-captain. That's not the sign of a club without panic. Rest assured, the Eels management is swinging quickly into crisis mode and players will be put on firm notice that their performance will determine their future at the club.

There's an old saying that a side of champions doesn't necessarily make a champion side.

From a punting perspective, their games - no matter who they're playing - should be a "no go zone".

Doncaster Mile update

2010-04-14T10:17:00.000+10:00

It's worth repeating: Many consider Typhoon Tracy to be the best mare in the country right now. There's not many which will beat her. Enough said.

RANGIRANGDOO AND PALACIO DE CRISTAL ATTRACT EARLY DONCASTER BETS

Rangirangdoo and Palacio De Cristal have been the subject of good early bets at Sportingbet Australia since Tuesday’s Doncaster barrier draw.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said both gallopers had been the early firmers.

Rangirangdoo has firmed from $7.00 to $5.50 with bets including one of $6600 at $7.00, while Palacio De Cristal is in from $13 to $12 with bets including one of $3000 at the $13.00,” said Sullivan.

“Punters seem to be looking for the swoopers with wide draws for the likes of Theseo and Typhoon Tracy looking to ensure a good tempo.”

Typhoon Tracy retains Doncaster favouritism at $3.20 with Rangirandoo now a $5.50 second favourite ahead of Danleigh at $6.00.

EMIRATES DONCASTER MILE
Sportingbet Australia Market
Typhoon Tracy 3.20
Rangirangdoo 5.50
Danleigh 6.00
Palacio De Cristal 12.00
Theseo 16.00
Brilliant Light 19.00
Black Piranha 23.00
Road To Rock 23.00
Wall Street 23.00
Snapy Halo 26.00
Triple Honour 31.00
Centennial Park 35.00
Prima Nova 35.00
Mentality 35.00
Tobique 41.00
Allez Wonder 51.00
Walking Or Dancing 51.00
Vision And Power 61.00
Drumbeats 71.00
Miss Marielle 81.00
Recoup De Fortune 81.00

More markets on Richmond's woes

2010-04-13T17:00:00.004+10:00

Sportingbet was offering $8. Either the market has tumbled in a couple of hours, or Sportsbet is a little ahead of its time with the $5 line for Richmond to remain winless.

Either way, here's their statement:

RICHMOND $5 TO GO WINLESS IN 2010

Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au says Richmond is a $5 chance to go winless throughout the 2010 AFL Premiership Season.

“Given their current form it’s hard to see where the Tigers are going to find an easy kill this year,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“We’re offering odds of $5 to punters who think Richmond will not win a match in 2010.”

With at least four omissions from the side that lost to Sydney by 55 points, Richmond has had little support ahead of their Round 4 fixture against Melbourne.

“We cannot lay a bet on the Tigers to beat the Demons this week, which they would normally pencil in as a possible victory,” said Lane.

“They’ve drifted from $2.55 out to $3.35 to defeat the Dees, while Melbourne has firmed from $1.52 into $1.33.”

Richmond has also firmed as the outright favourite in betting for the dreaded Wooden Spoon.

“The Tigers were $5 in pre-season betting for the wooden spoon, now they’re the hot favourite at $1.45,” said Lane.

“We have taken bets of $5000 at $3.75, $3000 at $3.50 and $10,000 at $3.25 on the Tigers for the spoon.”

Richmond to remain winless for AFL season

2010-04-13T12:08:00.002+10:00

On form, the $8 might be well worth an investment. However, remember Melbourne last year, and their late-season surge of form to win two games.

TOOTHLESS TIGERS BACKED TO REMAIN WINLESS IN 2010

Richmond’s terrible side to the season has led Sportingbet Australia to open a market on when the Tigers will win their first game in 2010, if in fact they do win one.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the majority of early money had been for the Tiger’s to go through the season without recording a win.

“There have been no huge bets yet but punters are certainly keen to take the $8.00 about a winless season at Tigerland,” Sullivan said.

“They have really struggled to compete in any of their games and it is a little hard to see where a win is coming from.”

Sullivan said the favourite in the market was this weekend’s clash against fellow strugglers Melbourne at $3.10.

“Melbourne have been much improved over the past fortnight with the heartbreaker to Collingwood and the win over Adelaide, so Richmond will certainly need to lift if they are to break their duck,” he said.

“The danger for the Demons might be coming down from the high of that win and backing up for consecutive victories is not something they have a good record of in recent times.

“But punters have already backed the Dees in from $1.50 to $1.33 after Richmond suspended four players after their Sydney hotel shenanigans.”

RICHMOND’S FIRST WIN OF 2010
Sportingbet Australia Market
Rnd 4 vs Melbourne 3.10
Rnd 5 vs Fremantle 4.00
Rnd 7 v Adelaide 7.00
Richmond Remain Winless For 2010 Season 8.00
Rnd 9 vs Essendon 11.00
Rnd 8 vs Hawthorn 13.00
Rnd 6 vs Geelong 18.00
Rnd 10 vs Port Adelaide 18.00
Rnd 15 vs Fremantle 19.00
Rnd 12 vs West Coast 23.00
Rnd 19 vs Melbourne 26.00
Rnd 16 vs North Melbourne 31.00
Rnd 14 vs Sydney 41.00
Rnd 11 vs St Kilda 51.00
Rnd 13 vs Brisbane 61.00
Rnd 18 vs Adelaide 101.00
Rnd 17 vs Collingwood 126.00
Rnd 22 vs Port Adelaide 151.00
Rnd 20 vs Carlton 201.00
Rnd 21 vs St Kilda 501.00

Brisbane Broncos premiership chances

2010-04-12T14:06:00.002+10:00

Granted, there are some young players, but look at their performance in round 1 when they had Corey Parker, Israel Folau and Denan Kemp in the lineup and they were indeed a different side.

That in mind, this bet might have some justification:

NRL: BRONCOS BACKED TO WIN OVER $250,000

One punter certainly thinks the Broncos are set to kick off a massive form reversal against the Sharks this weekend, backing them to win over $250,000 at Sportingbet Australia.

The Broncos had drifted to $67 roughies for the Premiership after a fourth consecutive loss to the Dragons on Friday night but at least one punter certainly thinks they are still contenders.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Broncos cruel run of injuries would make it very hard for them to be genuine contenders though.

“We have shortened the Broncos from $67 to $41 after taking a bet of $264,000 to $4000 but realistically they will need luck to even make the finals,” Sullivan said.

“The Broncos are desperate for reinforcements but by the time the lies of Folau, Parker and Hodges get back on the park, they might be already too far gone.”

Sullivan said it was the biggest price he could remember the Broncos being at this stage of the season.

“If it was any other team, you would simply rule a line through their name and say they were no chance of making the eight,” he said.

“The Broncos have a history of coming back though and $67 is an enormous price for any side with the likes of Lockyer, Wallace, Thaiday in the side and hopefully Folau and Hodges to return.”

2010 NRL Premiership
Sportingbet Australia market
Melbourne Storm 4.50
St George Dragons 6.00
Wests Tigers 7.00
Parramatta Eels 9.00
Gold Coast Titans 11.00
Manly Sea Eagles 11.00
South Sydney Rabbitohs 11.00
Penrith Panthers 15.00
Canterbury Bulldogs 21.00
Sydney Roosters 21.00
New Zealand Warriors 26.00
North Qld Cowboys 34.00
Brisbane Broncos 41.00
Canberra Raiders 101.00
Newcastle Knights 101.00
Cronulla Sharks 151.00

Typhoon Tracy in Doncaster Mile

2010-04-12T12:45:00.003+10:00

According to some well-versed racing writers I've spoken to over the past couple of weeks, Typhoon Tracy is the best mare in Australia right now.

This is one instance where a futures bet might pay dividends. She'll be shorter in the ring than the current $3.20, one would imagine.

RACING: BIG MONEY ALREADY ARRIVING FOR TYPHOON TRACY

The big money is already arriving for Typhoon Tracy to take Saturday’s Doncaster with the champion mare shortening from $3.70 to $3.20 at Sportingbet Australia.

The Peter Moody trained mare has been the subject of some massive wagers and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said she was clearly his worst result.

“We took a bet of $17,000 at $3.70 on the weekend which is a collect of over $60,000 and there had been plenty of support before that including a bet of $70,000 to $5000 way back in February,” Sullivan said.

“The $15 that punter secured certainly looks great value now as punters have taken $3.50 and $3.30 for good bets in the last 24 hours.

“If she draws well, I would say she will start even shorter and she does look terribly hard to beat.”

The Chris Waller trained pair, Danleigh and Rangirangdoo, are next in the market at $6.00 and $6.50 respectively.

“Both Danleigh and Rangirangdoo have been a little easy this week and I will certainly be looking to lay them before Saturday,” Sullivan said.

“The other interesting runner is of course Brilliant Light who has come from nowhere this preparation and is now $16 after we took a bet to win $100,000 at $401 shortly after markets were posted.”

2010 DONCASTER MILE
Sportingbet Australia market
Typhoon Tracy 3.20
Danleigh 6.00
Rangirangdoo 6.50
Palacio De Cristal 10.00
Black Piranha 14.00
Brilliant Light 16.00
Wall Street 19.00
Gold Water 20.00
Walking Or Dancing 21.00
Theseo 21.00
Road To Rock 26.00
Triple Honour 26.00
Snipers Bullet 31.00
Centennial Park 35.00
Snapy Halo 35.00

Fantasy winners Friday night AFL

2010-04-09T22:31:00.002+10:00

Winners: Nick Dal Santo; Dane Swan; Alan Didak
Aussiepunt tipped Dal Santo.
Based on a $10 bet for each, we were behind by $4 total.

AFL North Melbourne vs West Coast preview

2010-04-09T15:25:00.003+10:00

If form is any indicator, the West Coast should notch their first win of the season over a Kangaroos outfit shattered after a 100-point loss last week. This is not only a test of character for the Roos to see whether they'll bounce back (so to speak) but also a test of character for new coach Brad Scott.

Sportingbet fantasy trios are as follows:

Anthony vs Selwood vs Priddis

Tip: Adam Selwood

Liam Anthony was well held last week, but so were most of the Roos' midfield, including Boomer Harvey who had only 5 disposals. If Anthony bounces back to his absolute best, expect him to score around 120-130 points, the same score Selwood managed last week. If that's par for this group, Priddis has been well below it in his two opening rounds. We'll tip Selwood on form and consistency.

Embley vs Swallow vs McIntosh

Tip: Embley

This is tough. A man who consistently gets 20-odd touches (Embley) against a Swallow who barely touched the ball in Round 1 but bounced back in a well-beaten side, against an out-of-form ruckman who is likely to be outclassed in the middle. Again, we'll tip Embley on the basis of consistency.

Ebert vs Ziebell vs Masten

Tip: Brad Ebert

Ebert managed 95 and 96 points in his last two matches, and is against the promising Ziebell who did nothing against the Saints. Yes, he was in good company, but we'd rather go with someone who is already getting their hands on the ball. Masten hasn't done much in the first two rounds.

Sires Produce update

2010-04-09T13:49:00.004+10:00

The bookies might be talking it up, but I still like More Strawberries, despite being perhaps a little under the odds.

PUNTERS SEARCH FOR SIRES PRODUCE VALUE

Punters are betting around the Golden Slipper form of More Strawberries and Hinchinbrook in the Sires Produce with big money coming for the likes of Toorak Toff, Hidden Kisses and Skorost at Sportingbet Australia.

Toorak Toff’s odds have been slashed from $23 in opening markets to $9.00 while Hidden Kisses has been $51 to $23 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the favourites had been friendless.

“We have taken some big bets on some of the roughies and can’t write the favourites names,” Sullivan said.

“More Strawberries has been $2.50 to $2.70 while Hinchinbrook has been $3.20 to $3.50 and I am desperate to take them both on.

“Both horses are racing for the third week in a row which is a huge ask for two year olds and at these odds I think they are both a risk.”

Sullivan said punters had latched on to the fresh horses on the scene .

“We took a bet of $165,000 to $5000 each way on Hidden Kisses after there had already been good money at $51,” he said.

“One of the first bets we took was on Toorak Toff which was to take out $20,000 at $23 and more money came at $13 and $11.”

2010 AJC SIRES PRODUCE
Sportingbet Australia Market
More Strawberries 2.70
Hinchinbrook 3.50
Toorak Toff 9.00
Blackball 13.00
Divorces 14.00
Skilled 15.00
Yosei 16.00
Skorost 17.00
Hidden Kisses 23.00
Mafia Miss 26.00
Legalistic 35.00
Gold Arena 91.00

Randwick races in Sydney

2010-04-09T08:49:00.001+10:00

If you live in Sydney and need an incentive to get to the races tomorrow, this might help:

Hall of Fame trainer Bart Cummings yesterday purchased a stunning colt by Nadeem for $220,000 at the Inglis Australian Easter Yearling Sales in Sydney and on Saturday at 2.45pm one lucky punter is going to be given 1/6 of this potential future star, just by being at Royal Randwick for David Jones AJC Australian Derby Day or having attended last week’s AAMI Golden Slipper at Rosehill Gardens.

The promotion gives everyone who attends the races a chance to win a share in the horse, which will be trained by Cummings, possibly with an eye towards the 2011 Golden Slipper given the colt’s impeccable sprinting credentials.

The prize brown colt, is sired by first season stallion Nadeem, himself a son of the top ranking sire Redoute’s Choice.

Nadeem was purchased for $700,000 by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashed al-Maktoum at the Inglis Easter Sales in 2005 and went on to become the Joint Top Colt on the 2005/6 Australasian 2YO Classification.

Nadeem’s career highlights included a win in the Group One MRC Blue Diamond Stakes where he defeated the subsequent Golden Slipper winner Miss Finland.

This colt is from Nadeem’s first season of offspring, and is a true blue blood with real speed in his genes.

To have a chance to be the 1/6 owner of this colt, race day patrons attending the David Jones AJC Australian Derby Day tomorrow (April 10) will need to cut out the entry form from a competition advertisement or download a form online and submit their entry. Participants must be over 18 years of age to enter.

“He is a big colt with a very good rein, a lovely shoulder, and he moves athletically who steps over a lot of ground when walking,” said Cummings.

“And he looks the part,” the master trainer added.

The winner of the competition will be drawn at 2.45pm, just before the running of the Inglis Sires Produce Stakes.

The promotion has been organized by the stakeholders in the Sydney Autumn Carnival; AJC, STC, Inglis, Tabcorp, Racing NSW and Events NSW.

If you don’t win the lucky draw but still fancy owning a piece of this colt Inglis has a couple of shares in the horse remaining to be sold.

Inglis will be responsible for management of the winners share. This will include settlement of all accounts and looking after communications.

Full conditions as well as entry forms for the promotion will be available on the SAC website www.sydneyautumncarnival2010.com.au from Monday March 29, 2010.

AFL Collingwood vs St Kilda preview

2010-04-08T22:33:00.003+10:00

Given Collingwood's form last week against Melbourne, St Kilda is rightfully favourite for this game. They should win by about 4-6 goals. But it will be interesting to see how the two midfields match up, how Ball lifts against his old team, and how youngsters Wellingham and Sidebottom stand up to the big-game pressure.

Here are Sportingbet's fantasy match ups and tips:

Reiwoldt vs Swan vs Montagna

Tip: Leigh Montagna

This for mine is not so much a battle of how the stars stand up; rather a battle of who manages to get loose. Assuming Maxwell can hold Reiwoldt better than other defenders, and that Swan will get the Clint Jones hard tag, that will leave Montagna in a position to repeat his 35 disposals and 134 points of last week.

Dal Santo vs Goddard vs Hayes

Tip: Nick Dal Santo

This is a coin flip. Goddard could well fall loose of an opponent and go wild with possessions, but to score as he did last week with 137, he must also kick goals. Dal Santo lifted significantly last week with 33 disposals and is in far better form than Hayes.

Pendlebury vs Didak vs Davis

Tip: Scott Pendlebury

Pendlebury needed to lift last week and he did - in intensity - with 7 tackles compared to the week before when he stood off and managed only 2 tackles. With that as a benchmark, he's the model of consistency against the two razzle dazzle players.

US Masters 3-ball tips

2010-04-08T16:53:00.003+10:00

A good way to follow the top Aussies around Augusta is to have a punt in the 3-balls, and a couple of them are a good show.

Try these for size:

Heath Slocum 2.95
Nathan Green 3.25
Louis Oosthuizen 2.25

Geoff Ogilvy 2.65
Luke Donald 3.00
Martin Kaymer 2.65

Phil Mickelson 2.10
Robert Allenby 2.95
Yong-Eun Yang 3.60

David Duval 3.15
Adam Scott 2.15
Ricky Barnes 3.25

Allenby might struggle to get up over Mickelson, but the otehr three are well worth a tickle.

Big bet on Tiger Woods

2010-04-08T13:01:00.003+10:00

Here's the latest from the bookmakers on Tiger Woods. Punters are willing to gamble, as we suggest they should, on a remarkable Tiger comeback.

Maybe the bet was an insurance premium by the folks at sportsbet who've agreed to refund all bets if Tiger wins.

$80,000 BET AS PUNTERS GO TIGER CRAZY

One punter is very confident Tiger Woods will return to golf at the US Masters in top form after backing him to collect nearly $500,000 at Sportingbet Australia.

The punter had $80,000 on Woods at $6.00 and Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said punters were backing Woods heavily in the 24 hours before tee off for the Masters.

“Tiger had been a little easy but punters have really stepped into him now with the bet of $400,000 to $80,000 joined by plenty of other bets including one of $10,000 and another of $7000 at $5.50” Sullivan said.

“Tiger had drifted from $4.50 out to $6.00 but within minutes of posting the $6.00, the punters absolutely smashed us.”

“Tiger’s involvement in the tournament has seen turnover on the golf go through the roof after we had seen a notable absence while he was away from the game.”

Sullivan said Woods had to respected but after nearly six months away from competitive golf, he was happy to take the big bets on fourteen time major winner.

“Tiger has achieved many things that no one else has ever been able to do but this is a huge ask and I am keen to take him on,” he said.

“The flip side of that is this is the most backable price Tiger has been for years, he was $3.00 for the Masters last year so $6.00 is big odds for the greatest golfer of all time.”

2010 US MASTERS
Sportingbet Australia Market
Tiger Woods 5.00
Ernie Els 12.00
Phil Mickelson 12.00
Padraig Harrington 17.00
Retief Goosen 23.00
Steve Stricker 23.00
Lee Westwood 23.00
Paul Casey 26.00
Jim Furyk 34.00
Geoff Ogilvy 34.00
Ian Poulter 34.00
Camilo Villegas 34.00
Dustin Johnson 41.00
Martin Kaymer 41.00
Anthony Kim 41.00
Hunter Mahan 41.00
Rory McIlroy 41.00
Nick Watney 41.00
Angel Cabrera 51.00
Sergio Garcia 51.00
Sean OHair 51.00
Vijay Singh 51.00
Henrik Stenson 51.00
Charl Schwartzel 51.00
Others 67.00 Plus

NRL Parramatta Eels to fire up

2010-04-08T12:09:00.003+10:00

It's been a rough week for the Parramatta Eels with Nathan Cayless announcing it will be his last season.

We thought the death of their young fan would inspire them a couple of weeks ago, but if harsh criticism from all angles, including within the club, doesn't get some energy out of under-performing players, nothing will.

Timana Tahu has ambitions of playing Origin, but that shouldn't happen under current form. Hayne wasn't his usual self last week, and Hindmarsh's tackle count is usually a little higher.

In a way, they're lucky they are playing Canberra, a team which is also coughing up too much ball and whose players are under the microscope for a sloppy workrate.

"I certainly don't want it to happen that I get picked just because of what I've done or because I've been captain for so long," Cayless was quoted as saying.

"It's a team game and you've got to make sure that everyone's playing as well as we can."

"Your form dictates where you play. I've spoken to the coach and he said 'if you play well enough you'll be in first grade'."

In short, Parra should be nice and fired up - and should win.

Fremantle vs Geelong value

2010-04-08T10:32:00.002+10:00

For those looking for value this weekend, it might come in an unlikely guernsey: Fremantle.

Geelong goes into the Dockers home den without Cameron Mooney who has been suspended, nor Matthew Scarlett. That means their midfield will have to hold up against the young guns of Freo.

That, on paper, might seem an easy task. But remember that Aaron Sandilands will be delivering the ball to the boys from the West, and will likely win 80% of the tap outs.

In essence, Geelong will be weakened at both ends of the field. They will need Hawkins and their young brigade to stand up in the forward line. And they will need the likes of Paul Chapman to find their goal-kicking boots.

That's not an easy task if they are unable to win the clearances.

Tip: We'll be looking to take Fremantle at the line +10.5

Tiger Woods tee off times

2010-04-08T10:24:00.003+10:00

Tiger Woods tomorrow morning will tee off for the first time in 144 days.

And it will be an early start for most Australians, timed to roll down the first fairway at 3.42am (EST).

Australians kick off a bit earlier. Geoff Ogilvy is at 10.56pm, Robert Allenby at 12.25am, and Adam Scott at 3.53am.

Padraig Harrington, who at $17 isn't a bad bet, is two groups ahead of Woods, and reportedly glad to be slightly away from the circus.

Woods is at between $5 and $5.50. Centrebet is offering to return all bets on other players if Tiger wins the tournament.

Sires Produce money for roughie

2010-04-07T15:58:00.002+10:00

Aussiepunt has been following More Strawberries with plenty of interest. The horse has a great turn of foot and should be too good for this field, to break through for a maiden win.

But any tip which is at $26 is worth a dash!

MONEY FOR BRISBANE RAIDER IN SIRES PRODUCE

Brisbane raider Hidden Kisses has been backed in from $51 to $26 to win Saturday’s Sires Produce at Randwick.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the Rob Heathcote trained filly had been the subject of a good early go.

“There has been plenty of early money about to say she can reproduce her strong win over 1400 metres last time out and we have slashed her quote in half since we opened the market.”

“The fancied More Strawberries and Hinchinbrook were both hot on Crystal Lily’s heels in the Slipper last week but they are both racing for a third week in a row and it may well be tailor made for a fresh horse on the scene.”

More Strawberries is currently the $2.50 favourite at Sportingbet ahead of Hinchinbrook at $3.20.

2010 AJC SIRES PRODUCE
Sportingbet Australia Market
More Strawberries 2.50
Hinchinbrook 3.20
Divorces 12.00
Blackball 13.00
Skilled 14.00
Yosei 15.00
Skorost 17.00
Mafia Miss 19.00
Toorak Toff 23.00
Hidden Kisses 26.00
Legalistic 26.00
Gold Arena 71.00

If you live in Sydney

2010-04-07T15:04:00.000+10:00

Do the Italians know how to throw a party better than the Brazilians; or the French better than the Germans. Does Honduras and Cote d’Voire have support in Sydney? And where will they be holding a party during the World Cup?

I’m on a mission to find out which country parties best, and with your help, to compile a list of all Sydney’s best World Cup party places. It could be your favourite Norton St cafe to support the Italians, or a Greek restaurant in Rouse Hill. It doesn’t matter where it is, I’m keen to find it.

Help me out by adding a venue at:
http://liverpool-leader.whereilive.com.au/blogs/story/sydneys-best-world-cup-venues/

Tiger Woods refund

2010-04-07T14:05:00.003+10:00

It's not often you get two bets for the price of one. For example, take Reteif Goosen or Padraig Harrington. If Tiger wins, you get your money back. I'm not sure whether it's to attract more turnover on the field, or that the bookies are genuinely keen to back Tiger out of the Augusta race.

Note that somebody at sportsbet.com.au has a good sense of humour: Tiger is at $41 to be back at the clinic sometime during the tournament.

BOOKIE TO REFUND ALL BETS IF TIGER WINS THE MASTERS

Leading online bookmaker Sportsbet.com.au will refund all bets placed on the outright winner of the 2010 US Masters if Tiger Woods wins.

“It’s fair to say Tiger’s preparation hasn’t been ideal and we’re happy to take him on this week, so much so that we’re prepared to refund bets on everyone else in the field if Tiger wins,” said Sportsbet.com.au’s Haydn Lane.

“Taking a stance against Tiger is normally folly for a bookmaker, but we see this as our chance to finally get one back on him.”

Sportsbet.com.au is also offering the best price available on Tiger to win the Masters, currently at $6, with some other bookmakers posting as little as $4 on a Tiger victory.

In novelty markets, Sportsbet.com.au is offering $3 on Tiger to score 16 or more birdies at Augusta, $15 on him leading from start to finish, and $41 on him re-entering the clinic during the tournament.

Note: In November last year, Sportsbet.com.au paid out early on Tiger Woods to win the Australian Masters after two rounds when he was three strokes ahead. Woods faltered in the third round to share the lead with two others, before he shot clear on the final day to win the tournament.

All markets courtesy of Sportsbet.com.au. Prices are subject to fluctuation.

2010 US Masters Outright Winner
$6 Tiger Woods
$14 Phil Mickleson
$15 Ernie Els
$17 Padraig Harrington
$23 Retief Goosen
$23 Lee Westwood
$26 Steve Stricker
$31 Paul Casey
$34 Jim Furyk
$34 Camilo Villegas
$34 Ian Poulter
$34 Anthony Kim
Others quoted
-------------------------------------
Australians
$41 Geoff Ogilvy
$71 Robert Allenby
$81 Adam Scott
$201 John Senden
$251 Mark Leishman
$351 Nathan Green

TIGER SPECIALS

Will Tiger Woods make the cut at Augusta?
$1.15 Yes, he will make the cut
$5.25 No, he will not make the cut

Where will Tiger finish at Augusta?
$1.80 First to fifth
$4.50 Sixth to 10th
$7 11th to 20th
$3.75 21st of worse
$41 Back at the clinic during the tournament

Front-running Tiger
$15 Tiger to lead after each round and win the tournament

Tiger’s Round 1 score at Augusta
$19 64 or less
$15 65-66
$4.80 67-68
$3.50 69-70
$3.75 71-72
$4.25 73-74
$4.50 75 or more

Tiger Woods vs The Field
$6 Tiger Woods
$1.11 The Field

How many Birdies will Tiger hole at Augusta?
$17 0-6
$6.50 7-9
$3.50 10-12
$2.85 13-15
$3 16 or more

Coleman medal update

2010-04-07T10:59:00.003+10:00

While Brown is still my pick, there are a couple posting odds well over their potential. Roughead is at $17 and Bradshaw at $29. Both are capable of kicking a bag.

And if you're looking for something really long, Paul Medhurst is at $251. If he finds his best and kicks a couple of five-baggers in the next few weeks, he'll come well into double figures. It's a long shot, but more plausible than the others around him doing something similar.

Sportingbet Australia odds:
Brendan Fevola [BRIS] 4.25
Lance Franklin [HAW] 4.75
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 5.00
Barry Hall [WBD] 7.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 9.00
Jarryd Roughead [HAW] 17.00
Matthew Pavlich [FRE] 26.00
Daniel Bradshaw [SYD] 29.00
Cameron Mooney [GEE] 31.00
Kurt Tippett [ADL] 51.00
Adam Goodes 51.00
Jason Porplyzia [ADL] 67.00
John Anthony [COL] 67.00
Mark Lecras [WCE] 101.00
Tom Hawkins [GEE] 101.00
Justin Koschitzke [STK] 126.00
Steve Johnson [GEE] 126.00
Warren Tredrea [POR] 151.00
Leon Davis [COL] 151.00
Josh Kennedy [WCE] 151.00
Stephen Milne [STK] 201.00
Taylor Walker [ADL] 201.00
Daniel Motlop [POR] 251.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 251.00
Brett Burton [ADL] 251.00
Alan Didak [COL] 251.00
Mark Williams [ESS] 251.00
Paul Medhurst [COL] 251.00
Brett Ebert [POR] 251.00
Mitch Morton [RICH] 251.00
Paul Chapman [GEE] 251.00
David Hale [NTH] 251.00
Shannon Byrnes [GEEL] 251.00
Matthew Bate [MELB] 251.00

Brownlow medal update

2010-04-07T09:26:00.003+10:00

Given that Jonathan Brown is off to a flyer, guaranteed at least 5 points from his first two games, $8 are not bad odds.

The other one who seems to be good value this year is Nick Reiwoldt, at $17. Active forwards showed last year that they can poll well, and they're pretty much dominating the league at the moment in terms of their impact on results.

Looking through the list, it is an interesting exercise to look for some early vote winners in the search for value. My few would be Matthew Boyd at $29, Aaron Sandilands at $51, and Ryan O'Keefe at $101. O'Keefe is likely to have polled in both his opening games and will play a key role for the Swans as they perform above expectations.

Sportingbet Australia odds:
Gary Ablett [GEEL] 6.00
Jonathan Brown [BRIS] 8.00
Chris Judd [CARL] 13.00
Dane Swan [COLL] 15.00
Sam Mitchell [HAW] 15.00
Jimmy Bartel [GEEL] 17.00
Nick Riewoldt [STK] 17.00
Adam Cooney [WBD] 19.00
Joel Selwood [GEEL] 19.00
Luke Hodge [HAW] 23.00
Marc Murphy [CARL] 23.00
Nick Dal Santo [STK] 26.00
Simon Black [BRIS] 26.00
Adam Goodes [SYD] 29.00
Leigh Montagna [STK] 29.00
Matthew Boyd [WBD] 29.00
Bryce Gibbs [CARL] 31.00
Alan Didak [COLL] 34.00
Brendon Goddard [STK] 34.00
Nicholas Naitanui [WCE] 34.00
Scott Pendlebury [COLL] 34.00
Kane Cornes [PORT] 41.00
Lenny Hayes [STK] 41.00
Shaun Higgins [WBD] 41.00
Aaron Sandilands [FREM] 51.00
Lance Franklin [HAW] 51.00
Paul Chapman [GEEL] 67.00
Steve Johnson [GEEL] 67.00
Bernie Vince [ADEL] 81.00
Brad Sewell [HAW] 101.00
Brent Harvey [NTH] 101.00
Brent Stanton [ESS] 101.00
Brock Mclean [CARL] 101.00
Cyril Rioli [HAW] 101.00
Daniel Rich [BRIS] 101.00
Luke Ball [COLL] 101.00
Luke Power [BRIS] 101.00
Matthew Pavlich [FREM] 101.00
Ryan Griffen [WBD] 101.00
Ryan Okeefe [SYD] 101.00
Michael Barlow [FREM] 101.00

Australian Derby update

2010-04-06T15:34:00.000+10:00

There are some big bets early. Follow the betting is the best course of action, particularly following Shoot Out's poor last up start:

KIWI FILLY BACKED FOR DERBY RAID

Promising NZ filly Keep The Peace has been backed from $14 to $10 to win the Australian Derby with one Sportingbet Australia punter backing her to win over $90,000.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the filly had also been well backed in Oaks markets with punters confident she can emulate the efforts of the Clarry Conners trained Research who won the double in 1989.

“As soon as we posted a final field Derby market a punter rang to have $7000 on Keep The Peace at $14,” said Sullivan.

“And with her already well backed for the Oaks it seems the Kiwis are planning a significant hit and run here.”

Zabrasive heads the Derby market at $3.20 ahead of Rock Classic at $4.00.

2010 AJC AUSTRALIAN DERBY
Sportingbet Australia Market
Zabrasive 3.20
Rock Classic 4.00
Shoot Out 5.75
Keep The Peace 11.00
Handsome Zulu 12.00
Descarado 12.00
Count Encosta 16.00
Monaco Consul 17.00
Extra Zero 35.00
Landlocked 41.00
Sherpa Tenzing 51.00
Saint Encosta 71.00
Suyama 81.00
Home On A Wing 101.00
Cedarberg 151.00

Hey Hey It's Saturday vs The Pacific

2010-04-06T13:15:00.003+10:00

You'd have to think Hey Hey will win this one ... wouldn't you?

HEY,HEY TAKES ON THE PACIFIC

Sportingbet Australia has Hey,Hey It’s Saturday as a slight favourite to defeat Seven’s boom new series The Pacific in Wednesday week’s prime time ratings battle.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said while Nine could not expect the same phenomenal success that Hey, Hey received in its two reunion specials, the 7.30 timeslot gave them a slight advantage.

“The reunion specials were gold for Nine but it’s hard to imagine the same numbers this time around,” said Sullivan.

“But they are on air an hour earlier than the Pacific and should be making every effort to ensure viewers don’t switch to the Spielberg epic come 8.30.”

Sportingbet Australia’s market pays on the program with the highest median ratings figure as per official Oztam figures.

HEY HEY IT’S SATURDAY v THE PACIFIC
Sportingbet Australia Market
Hey, Hey It’s Saturday 1.85
The Pacific 1.95

Can Tiger Woods win the Masters?

2010-04-06T09:50:00.003+10:00

There was an interesting debate on Sydney radio this morning - whether the new Tiger Woods would be a better or worse golfer.

Oddly to me, the two professional sportsmen on the show - Triple M's The Grill Team - thought he'd find it hard to cope without the mistresses and extravagant lifestyle.

And if I might paraphrase Stuart MacGill, he seems to think the lifestyle was an exotic escape from the rollercoaster ride of the sporting arena. He also hinted that if Shane Warne didn't lead his exotic lifestyle, he wouldn't be the same standard cricketer. Mark Geyer agreed that familiarity was important for consistency in sport.

Dare it be suggested that a nagging wife is not conducive to good results.

Then there is the counter-argument: Without all those distractions, good or bad, there would be more time to focus on golf - golf would be the distraction from all those horrible things happening outside the sporting arena.

If, as has been reported, Tiger Woods has been training 15 hours a day, he'll be itching to get back into the competitive arena. He knows and likes the course. And remember all those people who discounted him in his first tournament back from injury. Many will still remember the long putt he sank to silence his critics.

You don't have to be a fan of the man, but as punters, we need to respect his golfing ability.

A few months ago, before the media circus, I argued that Tiger was a bad bet at even money - in short, chances of him winning more than half the events he enters are minute, which means he's generally under the odds each time he steps onto the golf course.

Now, however, at $5, he's worth thinking about!

AFL premiership market update

2010-04-06T09:10:00.002+10:00

Below is the latest AFL premiership market. On current and potential form, Hawthorn for mine is over the odds. The other two which seem to be over the odds on current form are Sydney and Fremantle, both outside $30.

Adelaide is the big drifter, and if they are beaten by Melbourne this weekend, expect that to plummet even further.

St Kilda 4.00
Geelong 4.25
Western Bulldogs 5.00
Collingwood 7.50
Hawthorn 9.00
Brisbane 12.00
Adelaide 19.00
Carlton 31.00
Sydney 31.00
Fremantle 34.00
Port Adelaide 41.00
Essendon 81.00
West Coast 126.00
North Melbourne 251.00
Melbourne 301.00
Richmond 401.00

Geelong vs Hawthorn fantasy results

2010-04-05T21:37:00.004+10:00

Just the one game to end the round:

Winners: Jimmy Bartel; Sam Mitchell; Luke Hodge.
Aussiepunt tipped Mitchell and Hodge.
Based on a $10 wager on each, that means we're up $22 on the game.

So, for the week, Aussiepunt tipped 14/24. Based on an average $2.50 return for each, and a $10 wager on each, we're up $110.

If anybody wants to give it a crack next week, take a look at the Sportingbet site. Click on AFL and scroll down to the Superstars link. It's all explained there.

Coleman medal: Jonathan Brown to shorten

2010-04-05T14:40:00.003+10:00

Expect some movements tomorrow for the Coleman Medal. The odds haven't been posted yet, but expect Jonathan Brown, Nick Reiwoldt and Jared Roughhead to shorten, while Fevola, Franklin and Pavlich to drift.

I'll post the latest odds as soon as I see them.

American Idol ... Lee Dewyze the dark horse

2010-04-05T11:17:00.005+10:00

Now that American Idol is down to the final 9 and it's reasonably easy to see who the last 6 will be, it's time to start looking for a dark horse.

I'm not a fan of futures betting, but Lee Dewyze at $4.50 is a good bet. He's done nothing until last week, which was a wake up call for viewers looking for an alternative vote.

Crystal Bowersox is clearly the best singer there, but personality plays a huge part and Americans, like Australians, don't mind supporting an underdog - if they think he/she has a chance to win.

Siobhan peaked early and seems to be a one-trick pony. Casey is a safe bet to run through to the final 4, but it's unlikely he can pull out the "moment" judges and voters are looking for.

Lee for mine is an even money chance and sits at overs right now. He's not my favourite, but it harps back to the old saying: "Bet with your head, not with your heart."

Check the latest odds here.

AFL Hawthorn vs Geelong preview

2010-04-05T09:09:00.004+10:00

This is set to be a cracking game, with the Hawks finding some form and Geelong not quite the same side of old. Both teams will be remembering the 2008 grand final, so intensity should be at a terrific high.

Sportingbet again has some fantasy trio betting options:

Ablett vs Bartel vs Chapman

All three were keys in their victory last week, with Ablett out to prove his loyalty to the club, he scored 129 points, including 13 kicks, 24 handballs and a couple of goals. Bartel scored 114 points and Chapman 105, but Chapman is the wildcard this week for mine. Ablett is likely to get a hard tag which means Chapman will be in a position to take up some of the slack.

Tip: While Chapman is a real chance in probably the toughest of fantasy trios, it's hard to tip against Ablett.

Joel Selwood vs Mitchell vs Corey

By his own high standards, Mitchell was just on par last week, but still managed 27 touches and 112 points, while Selwood is caught in a team with extremely high possession counts and managed 107 points, including 23 disposals and 9 tackles. Corey's intensity wasn't up to his usual standard with 80 points, but expect that to lift against the Hawks. Note the last time Geelong played the Hawks, Selwood had 42 disposals.

Tip: We'll expect Mitchell to take a leading role today to narrowly pip Selwood.

Hodge vs Lewis vs Enright

Hodge was outstanding in the first week with 34 disposals, 9 marks and 5 tackles. Throw in a goal and he racked up 142 points. Lewis had 27 disposals for 109 points and Enright 17 disposals for 90 points.

Tip: It's hard to go against form, so we'll tip Hodge to repeat his 2008 grand final dose on the Cats.

AFL Fantasy tipping results Sunday

2010-04-04T19:38:00.003+10:00

Three games on Sunday:

Adelaide vs Sydney:
Winners: Ryan O'Keefe; Scott Thompson; Bock.
Aussiepunt tipped O'Keefe to win for a narrow overall loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $6 on that game.

Essendon vs Fremantle:
Winners: Aaron Sandilands; Greg Broughton; Michael Barlow.
Aussiepunt tipped Broughton and Barlow for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.

Bulldogs vs Richmond:
Winners: Lindsay Gilbee; Matthew Boyd; Cooney.
Aussiepunt tipped Boyd and Cooney for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.

NRL Sunday tips - Warriors, Manly, Canberra, Wests

2010-04-04T11:19:00.003+10:00

All four home teams have won so far this week, including the shock result at Shark Park.

Can it continue? If form has anything to do with it, it shouldn't.

Manly travels across the ditch to take on the Warriors, and this is one of the most difficult games to pick. The Warriors are unpredictable and perhaps one of the most under-rated sides in the competition. But Manly still has something to prove. I'd expect Manly to win the battle of the halves, while out wide is a lottery. If you like Manly, take the line for value. If you like the Warriors, they're better than even money, so take that. I don't often sit on the fence, but I'm afraid I'm struggling with this one!

In the other game, Wests take their razzle dazzle to Canberra. Wests should break the trend by winning away. Canberra's ball handling has been awful of late and they're up against the best attacking side in the NRL. Take Wests to cover the line.
Any other result would be an upset.

AFL Bulldogs vs Richmond preview

2010-04-04T01:14:00.003+11:00

The Bulldogs should win this game easy, but Sportingbet's fantasy markets are interesting. There are some potentially tight ones among them.

Giansiracusa vs Murphy vs Gilbee

Giansiracusa had a great pre-season but wasn't up to it last week against Collingwood with just 63 fantasy points, including 13 touches, 6 marks and 3 tackles. Murphy, however, showed that he's prepared to make space with 12 marks and 23 touches. Gilbee was also ordinary against the Pies with 17 touches, but just 1 mark and 3 tackles.

Tip: Murphy seems to be finding his old form, leading into space and running all day. He should outdo his opponents (or should we say team mates) again.

Boyd vs Cross vs Delidio

Boyd is one of the most skilled players in the AFL and despite the loss last week, still managed 38 touches, racking up 128 fantasy points. Cross seemed to be everywhere and out-tackled Boyd, but 29 possessions meant he reached 107 points. It's hard to judge a man who is part of a well defeated team, but Brett Delidio picked up 21 touches, 5 marks and 6 tackles in his 94 points.

Tip: Boyd is the class player and has terrific form.

Higgins vs Cooney vs Hargrave

On pure form, this is a tough one to pick. Cooney seems stuck on doing the extraordinary, rather than concentrating on perfecting the basics as he can, and seems to be constantly over-running the ball. His 26 touches seem good, but only 4 marks was out of character. Higgins was quiet for a half last week, but bounced back in the second to finish with 23 possessions, 5 marks and a couple of tackles, finishing just 3 fantasy points ahead of Cooney. On form, we can forget Hargrave, but needless to say the coach has probably had a few words after just 14 touches last week.

Tip: We'd expect Cooney's butter fingers to disappear this week against weaker opposition. He could have a field day.

AFL Bombers vs Fremantle preview

2010-04-04T00:39:00.003+11:00

Essendon should bounce back after last week, but Freo are on a high after their win against Adelaide at home last week. The Bombers home ground advantage should be enough to see them win.

Fantasy markets on Sportingbet follow:

Stanton vs Sandilands vs Prismall

Stanton was sensational last week with 33 touches, 7 marks and 8 tackles for 145 fantasy points, well ahead of Sandilands who managed 97 - 33 of them hitouts. Prismall was solid with 22 touches and 8 tackles for 98 points. These are three class players.

Tip: It's hard to tip against form, so Stanton should prevail here.

Broughton vs Watson vs Pavlich

Broughton should play more on the ball than Pavlich which gives him the edge when it comes to fantasy points. The difference will be whether Pavlich can do a Jonathan Brown or Riewoldt and dominate the half forward line. But he must also kick a bag of goals. Broughton racked up 32 touches in the win last week, adding 7 marks and 4 tackles. Pavlich was also good with 22 touches and 3 goals. Jobe Watson, by his standards, was ordinary with 18 touches, only 1 mark, 3 tackles and 2 goals.

Tip: Again, form is a good indicator, so we'll go with Broughton.

Barlow vs Winderlich vs Welsh

Barlow kicked some serious butt against Adelaide with 33 touches, 6 marks, 4 tackles and 2 goals for a score of 128. Welsh for the Bombers will need to lift considerably this week to make his team and coach happy. 22 touches, just the 1 mark and 5 tackles is not enough, nor is his 75 points. Winderlich had a great pre-season, but didn't take that form with him to the first round - just 17 possessions, 3 marks and 2 tackles.

Tip: If form is a true guide, we must favour Barlow to outscore these two opponents, although Winderlich must lift.

Fantasy tipping results

2010-04-04T00:27:00.002+11:00

There were three games yesterday.

Collingwood vs Melbourne:
Winners: Jordie McKenzie; Aaron Davey; Dane Swan.
Aussiepunt tipped McKenzie and Swan for a good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $20 on that game.

St Kilda vs North Melbourne:
Winners: Nick Dal Santo; Nick Riewoldt; David Armitage
Aussiepunt tipped Riewoldt for a narrow loss.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're down $4 on that game.

West Coast vs Port Adelaide:
Winners: Kane Cornes; Adam Selwood; Nic Natanui
Aussiepunt tipped Cornes and Selwood for another good result.
Based on a $10 bet on each, we're up $22 on that game.

Golden Slipper Result

2010-04-03T16:14:00.001+11:00

1. Crystal Lily
2. Decision Time
3. More Strawberries

Beaten favourite: Military Rose.

Golden Slipper update

2010-04-03T10:10:00.003+11:00

More Strawberries is badly drawn in the outside barrier, but it was my pick at $17. It is interesting to see that it's come in to $11 now and will need plenty of luck in running. If it gets that luck, however, it'll be hard to beat and has a terrific turn of speed.

Here's the latest from the bookmakers:

MONEY ARRIVES FOR CHANCE BYE AND SOLAR CHARGED

More Strawberries has been the best backed Slipper runner this week at Sportingbet Australia but the money has dried up with the prospect of a drier track.

Sportingbet Australia CEO Michael Sullivan said the money in the day prior to the Slipper had finally come for Solar Charged and Chance Bye.

“More Strawberries was backed solidly from $21 to $11 early in the week with breeding students keen on her heavy track prospects,” said Sullivan.

“Solar Charged and Chance Bye were both unlayable but with the track improving they’ve both been backed heavily in the last day.”

Solar Charged is in from $12 to $10, while Chance Bye has firmed from $13 to $10 with no money for either Brightexpectations or Hinchinbrook.

2010 GOLDEN SLIPPER
Sportingbet Australia Market
Military Rose 3.50
Crystal Lily 5.50
Brightexpectations 6.50
Chance Bye 10.00
Solar Charged 10.00
More Strawberries 11.00
Beneteau 12.00
Hinchinbrook 17.00
Shaaheq 21.00
Decision Time 26.00
Obsequious 34.00
Carved In Stone 51.00
Georgette Silk 67.00
Elimbari 71.00
Lohan 81.00

AFL Adelaide vs Sydney preview

2010-04-02T16:02:00.002+11:00

Sydney was terrific against the Saints last week on their home turf, but this week they travel away to Adelaide who were woeful against Fremantle. Expect Adelaide to improve considerably on their 157 possessions last week. Sydney was also low with 171, but have a high tackle count.

O'Keefe vs Vince vs Goodes

The temptation here is to look towards Vince and Goodes as the class midfielders, but O'Keefe's work-rate is a sign of his form - 123 points last week, including 18 kicks and 15 handballs, 7 tackles and a goal. Vince was poor with 22 touches (69 points) in a poor side and should lift. Goodes is an impact player and can do some freakish things, but he's not one to mount up extraordinary numbers of possessions due to his tag. He kicked three goals last week for 86 points (16 touches).

Tip: It's hard to argue against form, and O'Keefe's role on the ball should help him win this.

Thompson vs Edwards vs Bolton

Form here is tough. Expect Adelaide to lift its possession rate, and one person who should help do that is Tyson Edwards. His 99 points last week included 16 kicks, 9 handballs and 8 marks. Thompson played towards the forward line and kicked two goals, and racked up 23 possessions in his 85 points, while Bolton scored 94 (23 possessions) but was more inclined to handball (16).

Tip: Based on the theory that Adelaide needs to lift its workrate, we'll go with Edwards, but this trio is a tough call.

Goodwin vs Bock vs Rhyce Shaw

If we're to go purely on form, this trio is sadly out of form. Simon Goodwin scored 70 points from his 24 touches (17 handballs) last week, Bock had 17 touches, 3 goals and 3 tackles, and a goal for his 76 points, while Shaw was ordinary with 10 kicks and 10 handballs for 64 points. Shaw will normally take more than 5 marks at half back, so if he's more of a go-to man from the kickouts, that could improve his score. Just one tackle was a let-down for him.

Tip: I'm nervous to tip anyone here, but I'd expect the Swans to look for more run out of halfback from Shaw. On the larger ground, he should lift, but Goodwin's a real threat here.

AFL West Coast vs Port Adelaide preview

2010-04-02T16:00:00.003+11:00

This is a tough game to call, particularly given that West Coast will have the home ground advantage. Both put in decent performances last week, albeit in a fashion one could expect from round 1, ie a little scratchy.

Kane Cornes vs Priddis vs Cassisi

Cassisi's 19 touches and 5 tackles last week was okay (72 points), but Kane Cornes has been everywhere this year. His 131 points last week was made up of 16 kicks, 23 handballs, 6 marks and 5 tackles. He's prepared to make space, but equally willing to tough it out in the packs. Priddis had 11 kicks, 18 handballs, 3 marks and 4 tackles (95 points) and is a key for the Eagles, but the question will be whether he can out-run Kornes and whether he'll be more of a go-to man this week without Ben Cousins in the side.

Tip: Kornes should win this, but expect Priddis to score more than 100 points as he takes some of the ground left by Cousins.

Boak vs Adam Selwood vs Embley

This is tricky. Boak's 98 points was made up of 17 kicks and 6 tackles last week, but Selwood will be expected to lead the way for the Eagles in this contest. His 16 kicks and 15 handballs last week (108 points) was good, and his club will be hoping it's average by his standards. Embley plays more in the forward line and can be boosted with a goal or two, but he'd have to lift his tackle count to upset the other two.

Tip: On form and expectation, we'll go with Selwood to pip Boak in this one.

Banner vs Swift vs Natanui

The bookies have put the new boys together, and each of them performed okay last week. But Banner is the class outfit with 18 touches and notably 1 goal 3 behinds. His 79 points was average by his pre-season standards, so he has room to improve. Swift would have to improved considerably upon his 11 touches last week (32 points) and Natanui - while doing some outstanding things with the ball - is not one to rack up high fantasy numbers (54 last week, including 16 hitouts and a goal)

Tip: Banner is more inclined to be near the ball, and should get enough points here.

AFL St Kilda vs North Melbourne preview

2010-04-02T15:58:00.003+11:00

St Kilda should win this game, but that doesn't mean the Kangaroos' key forwards won't touch the ball. It'll be interesting to see whether the Saints put a hard tag on Liam Anthony.

Anthony vs Goddard vs Dal Santo

Anthony has been a ball magnet throughout the pre-season, and that form continued last week with 14 kicks, 12 handballs and 10 marks. Goddard is generally used as an impact player for the Saints, while Dal Santo's strength is the hard ball gets. Despite being on a losing side, Liam Anthony's fantasy score of 132 was well ahead of Goddard (88) and Dal Santo (77).

Tip: Liam Anthony is likely to be on a losing side, but his work-rate is outstanding. He should win this on form.

Montagna vs Riewoldt vs Hayes
This is a tough one. Montagna (100 points last week) is consistently the highest ball-winner for the Saints, while Riewoldt (111 points last week) will score high due to his leading and marking ability, combined with goal-kicking power - a bit like Jonathan Brown for Brisbane. Hayes (99 points last week) is consistent, but it would surprise if he was the leader of this contest.

Tip: The Saints spread the ball around a lot among their high class midfield. If Riewoldt can kick 6 goals, he should win this match-up.

Harvey vs Ray vs Armitage

Harvey consistently proves why he's a champion, and last week added three goals to his 23 possessions (16 kicks), driving his fantasy score to 93. Farren Ray plays a role for the Saints and can at times rack up plenty of possessions - 76 fantasy points last week was below par for him. David Armitage only managed 10 possessions and 49 fantasy points. He'd have to lift considerably to challenge the other two.

Tip: Harvey should have more time in the midfield which should help him rack up enough points to win, but expect Ray to lift.

Brisbane vs Carlton fantasy results

2010-04-02T15:53:00.002+11:00

Winners: Jonathan Brown; Luke Power; Jarred Brennan

That makes two out of three last night which is a winning evening. I basically bet 10% of my bankroll on each market, and with a $2.60 average return, two from three is a terrific result.

Watching the game can be deceptive. I could have sworn Heath Scotland outscored Brennan, but that could have been to do with the high number of tackles laid by Brennan. Equally, I could have sworn Power was outscored by Marc Murphy, but that could have something to do with Bruce Macavaney's love affair with Murphy?

AFL Collingwood vs Melbourne preview

2010-04-02T15:49:00.002+11:00

It's interesting to note that the bookies are unwilling to pit Melbourne players against the Melbourne boys, based on the theory that the Pies will well out-possess the Demons.

But that doesn't mean there's not some value to be had in the fantasy challenge.

Trengove vs Scully vs McKenzie

Trengove and Scully both had creditable debuts last week with 23 and 20 possessions respectively. But they were both outscored comprehensively by Jordie McKenzie. Notably, McKenzie had only 15 possessions, 9 of them kicks. But his tackling (11) was what tipped his fantasy score over the 100 mark. Anybody who's willing to get amongst it like that is worth following again.

Tip: McKenzie outscored both opponents by 40 points last week due to his ferocious tackling. We'll expect him to do similar again, although Trengove should lift against a torrid opponent.

Bruce vs Moloney vs Aaron Davey

Each of these three returned similar results last week. Bruce (23 possessions) was more successful with marks, but wanted to handball more often (16). Moloney kicked on 14 occasions (22 possessions), while Davey will continue to be more of an impact player closer to goal. He would have scored better had his two behinds been goals.

Tip: Cameron Bruce is the experienced player of this trio and was a couple of years ago tipped to be a strong chance at the Brownlow. While he hasn't lived up to that, we'd expect him to lift against the stronger opponent this week.

Swan vs Didak vs Davis

While this contest is more in the hands of Pies coach Mick Malthouse than the players themselves - Didak and Davis could be pushed more into the midfield against a weaker opponent - Swan is pure class and will be a hot chance for the Brownlow this year.

Tip: Dane Swan should again mount up the possessions. Last week's 31 possessions was average by his high standards. He should have his nose ahead of the two utility forwards.